Vår Energi (Buy, TP: NOK39.00) - Maintenance-heavy Q3 expected
Ahead of the Q3 trading update (due at 07:00 CET on 10 October), we forecast net production of 259kboed (4% below Bloomberg consensus at 270kboed) after factoring in planned maintenance, and EBITDA of USD1,454m (3% below consensus). Our 2024e production of 289kboed remains within the guided 280–300kboed range, helped by a sharp QOQ increase in Q4e. With the Johan Castberg FPSO anchored up at the field and start-up likely scheduled for the second half of Q4, in addition to Balder X start-up scheduled for Q2 2025, we believe investor focus is shifting towards next year, when we expect FCF to cover current dividends. We reiterate our BUY and NOK39 target price.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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