Vår Energi (Buy, TP: NOK41.00) - Exiting the year on a high
We estimate Q4 net production of 224kboed, marking the strongest quarter since Q1 2022, and leaving full-year production at 213kboed, within the 210–220kboed guidance (results due at 07:00 CET on 13 February). Our USD1,410m EBITDA estimate is 7% below Bloomberg consensus, but we expect consensus to come down in the coming weeks as Q4 oil and gas price assumptions are likely to be revised lower. We forecast Vår Energi to increase dividends by ~10% YOY to USD1.2bn (16% yield). We reiterate our BUY and target price of NOK41.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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