Vår Energi (Hold, TP: NOK36.00) - Front-loaded FCF and dividends
The Q4 results were soft, with EBITDA 10–9% below our estimate and consensus. While the quarterly dividend was increased from USD270m to USD300m (~15% yield), we question the long-term dividend sustainability with FCF set to decline meaningfully from 2027, hampered by the raised capex guidance. We reiterate our HOLD, but have reduced our target price to NOK36 (39) on raised post-2025e capex.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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