Yara (Buy, TP: NOK425.00) - A globalist in a protectionist world
We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK537m (results due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We believe the current tariff turbulence increases uncertainty relating to Yara’s planned US blue ammonia investments, and thus the likelihood of the project not seeing daylight. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by just 3% on higher fertiliser and lower natural gas prices. At a 2026e P/E of 8x, we reiterate our BUY and NOK425 target price.Yara International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. converts energy, natural minerals and nitrogen from the air into products for farmers and industrial customers. Co. provides mineral fertilizers, industrial products and environmental products and services to its customers. Its mineral fertilizer portfolio, sold as five main brands (YaraMila, YaraLiva, YaraVita, YaraBela, YaraVera) represents a range of crop nutrients. Its industrial portfolio contains a range of nitrogen chemicals as well as CO2 and dry ice. Its environmental product and services reduce NOx emissions, control unpleasant odor, prevent toxic gases, avoid corrosion and improve water quality.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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