Yara (Buy, TP: NOK575.00) - 2022 set for record-high earnings
Q4 reported EBITDA fell c26% shy of consensus and took Yara’s share price down 7%. We believe most of the miss can be ascribed to a longer time lag in the price increases than we and consensus factored in; however, little new information suggests that the consensus for 2022 and beyond is too bullish. We have lifted our 2022–2023e EPS by 0–2% with higher volume expectations as the main positive contributor. We remain c35% above Bloomberg consensus on 2022e EPS and reiterate our BUY and NOK575 price target.Yara International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. converts energy, natural minerals and nitrogen from the air into products for farmers and industrial customers. Co. provides mineral fertilizers, industrial products and environmental products and services to its customers. Its mineral fertilizer portfolio, sold as five main brands (YaraMila, YaraLiva, YaraVita, YaraBela, YaraVera) represents a range of crop nutrients. Its industrial portfolio contains a range of nitrogen chemicals as well as CO2 and dry ice. Its environmental product and services reduce NOx emissions, control unpleasant odor, prevent toxic gases, avoid corrosion and improve water quality.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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