Dead money
In this report, we evaluate the urea capacity pipeline until 2022e. We started out looking for a recovery but we could not find it: the market looks oversupplied until 2020e. Nonetheless, given 40% consensus estimate reductions, sustainable higher nitrate premiums, and an improving risk/reward, we upgrade Yara to HOLD (SELL) and raise our target price to NOK320 (270).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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