Economic Perspectives

Economic Perspectives is a trusted provider of global macroeconomic and financial research with clients in North America, Asia and the UK.

EP research weaves complex and diverse information into coherent macro narratives, providing clear analysis and original market insights for global investors. Our clients benefit from our long experience in connecting economic developments with the credit and financial market outlook.

The analysis of developments in global private sector credit markets is fundamental to our understanding of the global economic and financial outlook. However, the actions and interventions of central banks and government have become increasingly important to our economic assessment.

For several years we have maintained that the only credible resolution of the 2008 global credit crisis is a resurgence of global inflation. We take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers. We provide the multi-dimensional appraisal of the inflation outlook that is critical to formulating a successful investment strategy, at a time when inflation complacency is rife.

We offer our research on a subscription basis or as a bespoke consultancy service. Our publications reflect our research agenda, shaped by the issues raised in client meetings. Our bespoke work tackles research projects of particular interest to our clients and is delivered as written reports or presentations.

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Market Focus October

There are some things that money just can’t buy: time, love, immortality, the elixir of youth, immunity from prosecution, a universal and effective coronavirus vaccine and economic recovery. (Note the omission of the UEFA Champions League title.) Governments around the world (except on the European continent) are spending like frantic philanthropists, determined to make their mark and are largely indifferent to the wastefulness of their endeavours. One of the strongest arguments against active f...

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Market Focus July/August 2020

A reticent consumer makes for a tentative retailer. Consumer-facing businesses in North America and Europe are staging the re-opening of their premises and keeping millions of workers on taxpayer-financed income replacement schemes. The furloughed masses are becoming less confident that they will be called back and hence more furtive in their spending behaviour. Like a nationwide game of ‘chicken’, businesses are daring the politicians to withdraw income support (at the risk of public revolt) an...

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Global Inflation Heatmaps June/July

May saw another fall in aggregate inflation, but not by as much as April. Developed economies are in the midst of an uneasy exit from lockdowns, and the virus is becoming better understood. As economic activity revives, we anticipate significant price rebounds in the context of dislocated supply chains.  

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Market Focus June 2020

In 2019, doctors placed humans in suspended animation for the first time, in a trial designed to make it possible to fix traumatic injuries that would otherwise cause death. The technique is known as Emergency Preservation and Resuscitation (EPR). Over at the US Federal Reserve, they have been working on a similar procedure for the corporate credit market. aimed at stabilising the price of credits that would otherwise be in mortal danger. The success of both techniques entails a rapid cooling pr...

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Global Inflation Perspective July 2020

Disagreements over inflation expectations are running high. Even though the probability that global economies experience a period of deflation in the short term is very close to one, investors seem to downplay the chances of a multi-year inflationary backlash.

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Market Focus October

There are some things that money just can’t buy: time, love, immortality, the elixir of youth, immunity from prosecution, a universal and effective coronavirus vaccine and economic recovery. (Note the omission of the UEFA Champions League title.) Governments around the world (except on the European continent) are spending like frantic philanthropists, determined to make their mark and are largely indifferent to the wastefulness of their endeavours. One of the strongest arguments against active f...

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Market Focus July/August 2020

A reticent consumer makes for a tentative retailer. Consumer-facing businesses in North America and Europe are staging the re-opening of their premises and keeping millions of workers on taxpayer-financed income replacement schemes. The furloughed masses are becoming less confident that they will be called back and hence more furtive in their spending behaviour. Like a nationwide game of ‘chicken’, businesses are daring the politicians to withdraw income support (at the risk of public revolt) an...

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Global Inflation Heatmaps June/July

May saw another fall in aggregate inflation, but not by as much as April. Developed economies are in the midst of an uneasy exit from lockdowns, and the virus is becoming better understood. As economic activity revives, we anticipate significant price rebounds in the context of dislocated supply chains.  

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Market Focus June 2020

In 2019, doctors placed humans in suspended animation for the first time, in a trial designed to make it possible to fix traumatic injuries that would otherwise cause death. The technique is known as Emergency Preservation and Resuscitation (EPR). Over at the US Federal Reserve, they have been working on a similar procedure for the corporate credit market. aimed at stabilising the price of credits that would otherwise be in mortal danger. The success of both techniques entails a rapid cooling pr...

Peter Warburton ... (+3)
  • Peter Warburton
  • Tom Traill
  • Yvan Berthoux

Global Inflation Perspective July 2020

Disagreements over inflation expectations are running high. Even though the probability that global economies experience a period of deflation in the short term is very close to one, investors seem to downplay the chances of a multi-year inflationary backlash.

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