Growth was already weakening before the virus
Nominal GDP growth fell for the sixth consecutive quarter, shrugging off the year-long pivot to central bank easing. Coronavirus struck the global economy in its hour of weakness, sending activity and pricing tumbling towards the abyss. Despite policy
interventions of epic proportions, the foundations for a rapid recovery are lacking.
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For several years we have maintained that the only credible resolution of the 2008 global credit crisis is a resurgence of global inflation. We take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers. We provide the multi-dimensional appraisal of the inflation outlook that is critical to formulating a successful investment strategy, at a time when inflation complacency is rife.
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