The UK public finances enjoyed a welcome reprieve recently, recording the first July surplus since 2002 and the best August outturn for a decade. These positive outturns folllow poor June data, meaning that the cumulative deficit for the current financial year is virtually the same as at the same stage last for 2015-16. Philip Hammond's forthcoming Budget on 22 November is already throwing a spotlight on the publc finances, with mounting speculation that the Chancellor will have little room for manoeuvre. The implication of productivity downgrades may be no more than nuisance but the underperformance of tax revenues is altogether serious: the task of bringing in the grain has been getting progressively harder for the exchequer.
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