Report
Peter Warburton

Tariffs: a recipe for supply-side chaos and a higher inflation

Donald Trump is not the first US president in recent times to seek to appease a tiny constituency of workers with punitive import tarrifs. The presumption of the aggressor in a trade battle is that the potential for welfare gains greatly exceeds the potential for welfare losses. Yet, the reflective  studies of both the Bush steel tariffs in 2002 and the Obama car and truck tyre tariffs in 2009 do not bear out this optimism.

Provider
Economic Perspectives
Economic Perspectives

Economic Perspectives is a trusted provider of global macroeconomic and financial research with clients in North America, Asia and the UK.

EP research weaves complex and diverse information into coherent macro narratives, providing clear analysis and original market insights for global investors. Our clients benefit from our long experience in connecting economic developments with the credit and financial market outlook.

The analysis of developments in global private sector credit markets is fundamental to our understanding of the global economic and financial outlook. However, the actions and interventions of central banks and government have become increasingly important to our economic assessment.

For several years we have maintained that the only credible resolution of the 2008 global credit crisis is a resurgence of global inflation. We take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers. We provide the multi-dimensional appraisal of the inflation outlook that is critical to formulating a successful investment strategy, at a time when inflation complacency is rife.

We offer our research on a subscription basis or as a bespoke consultancy service. Our publications reflect our research agenda, shaped by the issues raised in client meetings. Our bespoke work tackles research projects of particular interest to our clients and is delivered as written reports or presentations.

Analysts
Peter Warburton

Other Reports from Economic Perspectives

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch