Report

US inflation: hiding in plain sight and ready to pounce

The slump in headline annual US CPI inflation from 2.9 per cent in July to just 2.3% in September has led some commentators to revert to their script that the inflationary threat remains immaterial.  This would be a false conclusion. Despite the erratic swings in the headline data, a genuine and substantive inflationary threat is hiding in plain sight. Broad spectrum measures of inflation – designed to capture the essence of a vast array of component price series and forward-looking inflation indicators – and regional Fed survey responses suggest that core inflation is ready to pounce on unsuspecting investors.

Provider
Economic Perspectives
Economic Perspectives

Economic Perspectives is a trusted provider of global macroeconomic and financial research with clients in North America, Asia and the UK.

EP research weaves complex and diverse information into coherent macro narratives, providing clear analysis and original market insights for global investors. Our clients benefit from our long experience in connecting economic developments with the credit and financial market outlook.

The analysis of developments in global private sector credit markets is fundamental to our understanding of the global economic and financial outlook. However, the actions and interventions of central banks and government have become increasingly important to our economic assessment.

For several years we have maintained that the only credible resolution of the 2008 global credit crisis is a resurgence of global inflation. We take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers. We provide the multi-dimensional appraisal of the inflation outlook that is critical to formulating a successful investment strategy, at a time when inflation complacency is rife.

We offer our research on a subscription basis or as a bespoke consultancy service. Our publications reflect our research agenda, shaped by the issues raised in client meetings. Our bespoke work tackles research projects of particular interest to our clients and is delivered as written reports or presentations.

Analysts
Tom Traill

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