Hutchison China MediTech - A rolling stone gathers no moss
Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) is on the cusp of multiple drug launches of its internally developed oncology portfolio. In China we anticipate the imminent approval for surufatinib (epNET by year end, followed by pNET in H221), and savolitinib for MET exon 14 skipping non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Following the amended Elunate deal terms with Eli Lilly, HCM can realise synergies in marketing additional assets alongside Elunate, using its newly established China oncology commercial team (aiming for full coverage of all provinces in mainland China). Global aspirations are on the horizon and we expect US launches for surufatinib (broad NET indication) and savolitinib (NSCLC) in 2022, followed by fruquintinib (metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) FDA granted fast-track designation) in 2023. Beyond 2024, we expect sustainable profitability and margin expansion. Our forecasts are largely unchanged. We value HCM at $7.0bn.
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