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Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Tencent Holdings (700 HK): 4Q24 results preview: To-C AI application t...
Weixin has launched a new AI search function integrated with DeepSeek. We believe AI adoption will serve as a growth multiplier in innovative gameplay, AI agent development, advertising data analytics, and ad monetisation within Mini Programs and Mini Shops. Tencent’s 4Q24 results will be released on 19 Mar 25. We forecast a 4Q24 revenue growth of 11% yoy, driven by resilient game grossing and online ad revenue growth. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$608.00.
Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou (1024 HK): Intact monetisation progress; navigating AI wave i...
Kuaishou’s share price rebounded about 40% from the previous trough in January, stimulated by the frenzy sparked by DeepSeek. We believe the solid progress of Kling AI advancement and DeepSeek integration will boost monetisation potential from AI applications. Our estimates for Kuaishou’s 4Q24 earnings are largely unchanged, with revenue growth of 10% yoy driven by intact online marketing revenue growth and ecommerce GMV. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$75.00.
Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
NetEase (9999 HK): 4Q24: Solid earnings beat; promising pipeline and A...
NetEase’s 4Q24 earnings were above expectations. Revenue dropped 1% yoy to Rmb26.7b, largely in line with consensus forecast. Gross profit dipped 3% yoy to Rmb16.3b, with gross margin rising 1ppt yoy to 61%. Non-GAAP operating profit grew 14% yoy to Rmb8.7b, with operating margin at 32.7%. Non-GAAP net profit rose 31.2% yoy to Rmb9.7b, beating consensus estimate. Net margin expanded 9ppt yoy to 36% in 4Q24. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$200.00 (US$128.00).
Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 3QFY25: CMR beat; all-in AI; capex in next th...
Alibaba’s 3QFY25 results surpassed expectations. Revenue grew 8% yoy to Rmb280.2b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb51.1b, up 6% yoy, beating our and consensus forecasts, with net margin of 18.2%. CMR revenue growth of 9% yoy came in above expectations, propelled by the introduction of service fees, a take rate improvement and the national subsidies programme. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$150.00 (US$150.00).
Colin Lee ... (+2)
- Colin Lee
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
Lenovo Group (992 HK): 3QFY25: Solid performance across all businesses...
Lenovo’s 3QFY25 core net profit was slightly below our estimate but beat consensus forecast, with growth primarily driven by strong hardware sales and improvements in ISG margins. Going forward, the AI PC replacement story remains solid with risks leaning towards the upside as we see accelerated AI PC penetration in 3QFY25, while we expect a sustained margin improvement in the ISG business. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$14.30.
Greater China Research Team
- Greater China Research Team
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Greater China October Conviction List
As we continue to expect market volatility, we maintain exposure to names that have resilient earnings or are expected to enjoy an earnings growth recovery, such as Ausnutria Dairy (1717 HK), CSPC (1093 HK) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), and add PICC P&C (2328 HK) to our BUY list.
01093
CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LIMITED
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
D4D DONGFENG MOTOR GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
02689 NINE DRAGONS PAPER HOLDINGS LTD.
6AH AUSNUTRIA DAIRY CORP LTD
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
700 HK TENCENT
2269 WUXI BIOLOGICS (CAYMAN) INC.
1600 CHINA TIAN LUN GAS HOLDINGS LTD
3618 CHONGQING RURAL COMMERCIAL BANK CO LTD
631 SANY HEAVY EQUIPMENT INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS CO LTD
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
D4D DONGFENG MOTOR GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
02689 NINE DRAGONS PAPER HOLDINGS LTD.
6AH AUSNUTRIA DAIRY CORP LTD
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
700 HK TENCENT
2269 WUXI BIOLOGICS (CAYMAN) INC.
1600 CHINA TIAN LUN GAS HOLDINGS LTD
3618 CHONGQING RURAL COMMERCIAL BANK CO LTD
631 SANY HEAVY EQUIPMENT INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS CO LTD
Gary Kong Tsz Yeung ... (+2)
- Gary Kong Tsz Yeung
- Tham Mun Hon
China Strategy - The End Of Cycles?
The stronger-than-expected 1Q19 economic data and central bank backstop have fuelled optimism that cycles are a thing of the past. With animal spirits rekindled, our more cautious view since end-February has not played out well. Although we have not seen an improvement in risk-reward so far and further meaningful monetary easing will be needed to see a sustainable recovery, we are adjusting our strategy to include laggards and policy-supported sectors in our BUY list.
Gary Kong Tsz Yeung ... (+2)
- Gary Kong Tsz Yeung
- Tham Mun Hon
China Strategy: The end of cycles?
The stronger-than-expected 1Q19 economic data and central bank backstop has fuelled optimism that cycles are a thing of the past. With animal spirits rekindled, our more cautious view since end-February has not played out well. Although we have not seen an improvement in risk-reward so far and further meaningful monetary easing will be needed to see a sustainable recovery, we are adjusting our strategy to include laggards and policy-supported sectors into our BUY list.
Colin Lee ... (+9)
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, February 18, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong recovered wow in the third week of Feb 25. With a continued decline in transition volume and improvement of sentiment in a few cities, we expect the land market to continue its structural divergence in 2025. In Hong Kong, the CCL index remained stable, but we expect high inventory to continue weighing on property prices. We stay cautious on NWD with a HOLD rating despite the recent sentimen...
Claire Wang Kelai ... (+3)
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, January 28, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI January's manufacturing PMI slipped into the contractionary zone at 49.1 (-1.0pt mom) and the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.2 (-2.0pt mom). Construction (-3.9pt mom) saw a sharper decline than services (-1.7pt mom), while smaller firms struggled due to subdued external demand. Given the weaker data, investors will be looking out for new supportive measures in the run-up to the Two Sessions. TRADERS’ CORNER Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK): Trading buy range: ...
Greater China Research Team ... (+4)
- Greater China Research Team
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Greater China Daily: Thursday, January 9, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$75.25/Target: HK$120.60) Sales momentum of the Anta brand and Fila both improved in 4Q24 compared to 3Q24, in terms of yoy growth, especially for Fila, although both brands fell short of the full-year sales targets. By channel, the performance of the offline channel has normalised. For 2025, management maintains the company’s mid- to long-term sales targets. In addition, the company plans to prioritise Super Anta as the key focus of store innov...
Damon Shen ... (+3)
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, November 26, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy China And Hong Kong Property In Nov 24, new and second-hand home transactions in major cities showed positive mom growth, although listing prices continued to trend down. In Hong Kong, the latest CCL index fell 0.7% wow after rebounding 2.2% since end-Sep 24, and primary transactions also declined mom. Rising geopolitical risks and uncertainties of rate cuts weigh on the recovery of property sales. CEWC in Dec 24 will be the next key event to watch. Maintain MARKET WEIG...
Colin Lee ... (+3)
- Colin Lee
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, November 19, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$28.80/Target: HK$33.50) Xiaomi’s 3Q24 adjusted net profit is a slight beat at Rmb6.3b, as its EV business continued to deliver positive surprises on both product mix and margins. Going forward, Xiaomi is expected to deliver robust sales growth and margin expansion across its smartphones, IoT and EV businesses on the back of competitive product launches and solid execution. Raise target price to HK$33.50 based on higher sales and margins assump...
Jo Yee Ng ... (+9)
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, November 14, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply A little less to cheer. Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Riding on the wave of AI PC; Thunder Software Technology is a beneficiary. Sector Internet 3Q23 results preview: Solid e-commerce ad growth to drive sector growth; potential positive surprise from online game grossing. Internet Muted growth acceleration from 11.11 campaign. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$6.43/Target: HK$9.50) Revenue guidance revised down yet sales target mainta...