GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures remain. Sector Automobile Weekly: Direct impacts from US tariffs contained; indirect spillovers uncertain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$81.55/Target: HK$108.80) 1Q25 sales me...
JD’s 1Q25 top-line growth and earnings guidance remained unchanged at doubledigit growth, slightly better than our expectations. JD also saw strong user growth and GMV growth in 1Q25 as it is well positioned to capture the continuation of the trade-in programme. JD highlighted its minimal revenue exposure to the US, implying limited impact from the US tariffs. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$220.00 (US$60.00).
Anta's 1Q25 operations were in line with expectations, with Fila continuing to sustain a good momentum. The company announced that it will acquire German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin at a base price of US$290m, implying a 2025 PS ratio of 0.8x. Management expects the acquisition to further complete the company’s outdoor product portfolio, positioning Jack Wolfskin as a mid-range pricing option in addition to its current brands. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$108.80.
US tariffs on Chinese autos (up to 150%) have limited direct impact but raise global trade tensions, posing risks to demand and earnings. China’s auto sales grew 25% yoy but fell 30% wow in the 14th week of 2025, mainly due to Qingming Festival. PEV market share remained at 50.1%. BYD and Geely respectively guide for 86-119% yoy and 205-233% yoy spike in 1Q25 earnings, beating expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
We expect SCC to report a 1Q25 net profit of Bt652m. The CBM and packaging businesses have shown a strong recovery, supported by seasonal demand growth. For 2Q25, we anticipate a significant qoq rise in net profit, driven by improved performances in the CBM and petrochemical businesses. However, we believe the improvement in petrochemical spreads is temporary. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt160.00.
As we continue to expect market volatility, we maintain exposure to names that have resilient earnings or are expected to enjoy an earnings growth recovery, such as Ausnutria Dairy (1717 HK), CSPC (1093 HK) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), and add PICC P&C (2328 HK) to our BUY list.
The stronger-than-expected 1Q19 economic data and central bank backstop have fuelled optimism that cycles are a thing of the past. With animal spirits rekindled, our more cautious view since end-February has not played out well. Although we have not seen an improvement in risk-reward so far and further meaningful monetary easing will be needed to see a sustainable recovery, we are adjusting our strategy to include laggards and policy-supported sectors in our BUY list.
The stronger-than-expected 1Q19 economic data and central bank backstop has fuelled optimism that cycles are a thing of the past. With animal spirits rekindled, our more cautious view since end-February has not played out well. Although we have not seen an improvement in risk-reward so far and further meaningful monetary easing will be needed to see a sustainable recovery, we are adjusting our strategy to include laggards and policy-supported sectors into our BUY list.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply February's M1 growth slowed to 0.1% yoy (-0.3ppt), missing consensus’ 1.0%, due to the Chinese New Year effect. M2 remained steady at 7.0% yoy, but new bank loans fell to Rmb1.01t compared with Jan 25’s Rmb5.13t, while new TSF fell to Rmb2.23t, both below forecasts. Thus, outstanding bank loans growth edged lower to 7.3% yoy. Nevertheless, outstanding TSF growth rose to 8.2% yoy due to increased government bond issuance. Weak domestic demand remains a key ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Hong Kong Budget 2025-26 The 2025-26 Budget balances fiscal discipline with strategic growth initiatives in AI and NM development, funded by prudent bond issuance. Hong Kong positions itself for future growth amid technological transformation, with a planned deficit of 2.0% of GDP and fiscal reserves falling to eight months of expenditure. The budget speech is overall positive on the Hong Kong property sector, with the reduction in stamp duty being a highlight. Result...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong recovered wow in the third week of Feb 25. With a continued decline in transition volume and improvement of sentiment in a few cities, we expect the land market to continue its structural divergence in 2025. In Hong Kong, the CCL index remained stable, but we expect high inventory to continue weighing on property prices. We stay cautious on NWD with a HOLD rating despite the recent sentimen...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI January's manufacturing PMI slipped into the contractionary zone at 49.1 (-1.0pt mom) and the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.2 (-2.0pt mom). Construction (-3.9pt mom) saw a sharper decline than services (-1.7pt mom), while smaller firms struggled due to subdued external demand. Given the weaker data, investors will be looking out for new supportive measures in the run-up to the Two Sessions. TRADERS’ CORNER Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK): Trading buy range: ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$75.25/Target: HK$120.60) Sales momentum of the Anta brand and Fila both improved in 4Q24 compared to 3Q24, in terms of yoy growth, especially for Fila, although both brands fell short of the full-year sales targets. By channel, the performance of the offline channel has normalised. For 2025, management maintains the company’s mid- to long-term sales targets. In addition, the company plans to prioritise Super Anta as the key focus of store innov...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply A little less to cheer. Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Riding on the wave of AI PC; Thunder Software Technology is a beneficiary. Sector Internet 3Q23 results preview: Solid e-commerce ad growth to drive sector growth; potential positive surprise from online game grossing. Internet Muted growth acceleration from 11.11 campaign. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$6.43/Target: HK$9.50) Revenue guidance revised down yet sales target mainta...