Edison Investment Research - Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics SA (OPAP) OPAP - A record quarter; continued high dividends

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Edison Investment Research

Victoria Pease

OPAP - A record quarter; continued high dividends

OPAPâ€™s FY18 results were in line with our forecasts, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of 6.3% to â‚¬1.55bn and a 22.9% EBITDA margin. The recently installed video lottery terminals (VLTs) contributed â‚¬208.7m to GGR (vs â‚¬57.6m in FY17) and new Kino features led to a strong Q418 within the core Lottery division. OPAPâ€™s investment phase is nearing completion, cost containment is in place and the business model is highly cash generative. The â‚¬0.70 FY18 dividend was over 100% of free cash flow and notably higher than our 90% estimate. This was an encouraging set of results and our core OPAP forecasts are broadly unchanged. OPAP trades at 14.6x P/E and 8.2x EV/EBITDA, with an 8.4% dividend yield for FY19e.

29/03/2019 6 EN

Underlying

Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics SA

OPAP is engaged in the operating and management of numerical lottery and sports betting games as well as lottery games. Co. holds concession to operate and manage new sports betting games in Greece as well as a right of first refusal to operate and manage any new lottery games permitted by the Hellenic Republic. Co. operates six numerical lottery games, including Joker, Lotto, Proto, Extra 5, Super 3, and Kino; and three sports betting games consisting of Stihima, Propo, and Propo-goal. Co. is also engaged in designing new lottery games, including Bingo and Super 4. Co. distributes its games through an extensive on-line network of agents.

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GRS419003009 Greece

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Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

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Analysts

Victoria Pease

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OPAP - A record quarter; continued high dividends

Greek Organisation Of Football Prognostics S.A.: 1 director

OPAP | More measured growth, but still betting on a safe ace

OPAP | More measured growth, but still betting on a safe ace

AGBA - A transformational deal

Biodexa Pharmaceuticals - In a period of transition

Norcros - Sale of Johnson Tiles UK agreed

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