HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: disruption in Middle East operations • Romanian banks: draft government plan suggests new tax on banks is being considered • MOL: to acquire Budapest University of Technology and Economics NEGATIVE • Graphisoft Park: sells residential land plot POSITIVE • CEZ: AGM approves dividend of CZK 47/share NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: to invest in solar power plant in Bulgaria NEUTRAL • OPAP: Greece invites bidders for State lotteries licence NEUTRAL • Short News (BFT, CDR)
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
In line quarter; comps to get tougher in H2 – OPAP has reported results in line with our projections delivering 8% revenue growth (to €595m) and 9% higher EBITDA (to €207m). In general, Q1 looks in symphony with the recent experience, namely strong online growth (+20%, powered by Stoiximan) and healthy retail (+4%). Across the verticals, betting (+13%, helped by strong sports margins) and online casino (+20%) stood out. We remind that the quarter benefited from favourable sports results and the ...
In line quarter; comps to get tougher in H2 – OPAP has reported results in line with our projections delivering 8% revenue growth (to €595m) and 9% higher EBITDA (to €207m). In general, Q1 looks in symphony with the recent experience, namely strong online growth (+20%, powered by Stoiximan) and healthy retail (+4%). Across the verticals, betting (+13%, helped by strong sports margins) and online casino (+20%) stood out. We remind that the quarter benefited from favourable sports results and the ...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: solid, but neutral, set of 1Q25 results; FX mortgage saga still eating material part of profits • Jahez: mixed 1Q25 results, affected by seasonality and intensified competition NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 1Q25 EBITDA beats expectations by 2-8%, on FX differences NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: April sales growth slows down to 5% yoy NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: April sales growth decelerates to 6% yoy NEGATIVE • Richter: Trump promises 30-80% cuts in US drug prices NEGATIVE • For...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Titan Cement: cementing its leadership (BUY - transfer of coverage) • 11 bit studios: 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA above our expectations, headlines hit by substantial write-offs POSITIVE • PGE: full 4Q24 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Tauron: full 4Q24 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: 1Q25 sales up 39% yoy, to PLN 22.1m POSITIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market up by a strong 15% yoy in 2M25 POSITIVE • Kazatomprom: signs supply agreement with CE...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: strategy focused on growth (stays BUY) • Ignitis Group: making headway (BUY - transfer of coverage) • PZU: 4Q24 well ahead of expectations, holding structure to be created within PZU group POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 4Q24 results – EBITDA up 9% yoy, 9% above our forecast and 1% above the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: FY24 results review NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: 4Q24 earnings, and preview of a potential mega data centre NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 4Q2...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: pumping iron (stays BUY) • Jeronimo Martins: small beat in 4Q24, Biedronka margin erosion slows down; tough market environment continues in 2025 POSITIVE • OPAP: the beat goes on, in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Tauron: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA 45% above our estimate, on strong Generation and Distribution, and lower loss in Supply POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: assessment of recent political events • Allegro vs. InPost: our take on the companies' two calls • cyber_Folks / Shoper: key ...
Strong play, but limited new aces up its sleeve, for now – OPAP shares have had a robust start to 2025 returning c11% ytd, fueled by a strong H2’24 operational performance driven by both recurring (strong online/sports betting trends) and non-recurring (e.g. jackpot rollovers) factors. Although the better execution is set to lead FY24 EBITDA c2% above our previous projection and >4% above the upper end of mgt expectations (€750-770m guided range), it also sets a high bar for 2025. The year does ...
Strong play, but limited new aces up its sleeve, for now – OPAP shares have had a robust start to 2025 returning c11% ytd, fueled by a strong H2’24 operational performance driven by both recurring (strong online/sports betting trends) and non-recurring (e.g. jackpot rollovers) factors. Although the better execution is set to lead FY24 EBITDA c2% above our previous projection and >4% above the upper end of mgt expectations (€750-770m guided range), it also sets a high bar for 2025. The year does ...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • OPAP: strong momentum (stays BUY) • Aselsan: strong 4Q24 results and upbeat FY25E outlook POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 4Q24E results review – EBITDA +17% yoy, in line with the consensus; solid 2025E guidance and dividend recommendation POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: prepares for separation of its passive mobile POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H24 – strong performance continues • Lion Finance Group PLC: 4Q24 results highlights POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q24 prelims in line with the January guidance...
We have updated our earnings estimates for OPAP, ahead of next month’s 4Q/FY24E results release. Based on the Hellenic Gaming Commission’s (HGC) recently-released figures, 2024 ended on a very strong footing, with gross gaming revenues (GGRs) up 13% yoy in 4Q24, thus driving the total for the year higher, by 11%. Following this, we have lifted our 2024E top-line/EBITDA forecasts by 2%/3%, standing ahead of both management’s guidance and the consensus expectations. We have also increased our pric...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 4Q24 headline profit a touch below forecasts, due to the accelerated recognition of the incentive plan POSITIVE • Georgia macro: insights on a Ukraine deal spillover to Georgia • BIM: Competition Authority imposes administrative fine of TRY 1,296m NEGATIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market +6% yoy in December and 11% in 2024 POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: reaches 11-year bauxite supply/alumina offtake agreement with Rio Tinto POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: announces ten...
OPAP enjoys a leading and growing position in the Greek and Cypriot gaming markets. The majority of its revenue, from land-based activities, is supported by exclusive prepaid licences. To complement these activities, OPAP has developed a strong presence in the regulated online markets, where, by definition, there is greater competition. Management’s strategy is to grow its customer interactions in both the online and offline worlds, through a combination of rejuvenating its older games and devel...
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
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