OPAP - Forecasts held as it emerges from lockdown
OPAP’s Q120 results showed the initial impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak, with revenue declining by 17.1% as the company’s physical locations began to close from 14 March. Since gradually re-opening in May, OPAP has seen a steady recovery, albeit not back to pre-lockdown levels, and encouragingly, management expects to be EBITDA positive in Q220, likely to be the financial period most affected by lockdowns in Greece and Cyprus. As a result, we retain our underlying forecasts, which incorporate a decline in revenue of c 20% for the remainder of FY20. The share price has recovered from the lows in March, such that the EV/EBITDA for FY21e is now 8.4x.OPAP is engaged in the operating and management of numerical lottery and sports betting games as well as lottery games. Co. holds concession to operate and manage new sports betting games in Greece as well as a right of first refusal to operate and manage any new lottery games permitted by the Hellenic Republic. Co. operates six numerical lottery games, including Joker, Lotto, Proto, Extra 5, Super 3, and Kino; and three sports betting games consisting of Stihima, Propo, and Propo-goal. Co. is also engaged in designing new lottery games, including Bingo and Super 4. Co. distributes its games through an extensive on-line network of agents.
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