Edison Investment Research - Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics SA (OPAP) OPAP - New licence boosts post-FY20 forecasts

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Edison Investment Research

Kate Heseltine

OPAP - New licence boosts post-FY20 forecasts

OPAP’s Q320 results showed a strong sequential improvement in revenue from Q220 as trading returned towards normality, which led to an improvement in profitability and free cash flow generation. Further regional lockdowns and a second full national lockdown from November lead us to downgrade revenue forecasts for FY20 by c 15%. Most significantly, the new licence for Lotteries and Sports Betting from FY20–30 with reduced taxes on revenue, agreed in FY11, became effective in October 2020 with no reaction from the Greek government, leading to significant upgrades to our forecasts for EBITDA, free cash flow and distributions to shareholders in FY21. The resulting prospective dividend yield of 10.1% looks very attractive.

07/12/2020 7 EN

Underlying

Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics SA

OPAP is engaged in the operating and management of numerical lottery and sports betting games as well as lottery games. Co. holds concession to operate and manage new sports betting games in Greece as well as a right of first refusal to operate and manage any new lottery games permitted by the Hellenic Republic. Co. operates six numerical lottery games, including Joker, Lotto, Proto, Extra 5, Super 3, and Kino; and three sports betting games consisting of Stihima, Propo, and Propo-goal. Co. is also engaged in designing new lottery games, including Bingo and Super 4. Co. distributes its games through an extensive on-line network of agents.

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GRS419003009 Greece

Provider

Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

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Analysts

Kate Heseltine

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OPAP - New licence boosts post-FY20 forecasts

WOOD Daily: EMEA Airlines; RO Banks; MOL HB; GSPARK HB; CEZ CP; SNP RO; OPAP GA

WOOD Daily: MENA Petrochemicals – BOROUGE UH; SIPCHEM AB; OPAP GA

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: EME indices mostly in the green in May

Manx Financial Group - Termination of coverage

musicMagpie - Termination of coverage

Topps Tiles - Accelerating growth through Q125

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