Edison Investment Research - Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics SA (OPAP) OPAP - Well capitalised to weather COVID-19

Report

Edison Investment Research

Richard Williamson

OPAP - Well capitalised to weather COVID-19

FY19 results were in line demonstrating a strong underlying business, but these have been overshadowed by the impact of COVID-19 on FY20. Management estimates that the disruption (shop closures) will have an impact on monthly gross gaming revenues (GGR) of â‚¬130â€“140m and EBITDA of â‚¬50â€“53m. Our new forecasts assume a â‚¬400m revenue loss equivalent to three months of full disruption during FY20 and we also have reduced FY21 GGR forecasts by 9% to reflect the potential impact on consumer confidence. Nonetheless, the balance sheet remains robust and we forecast a final dividend for FY20 (payable in FY21). The shares trade at 6.8x EV/EBITDA and 12.7x P/E for FY21 with an 11.8% yield.

06/04/2020 5 EN

Underlying

Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics SA

OPAP is engaged in the operating and management of numerical lottery and sports betting games as well as lottery games. Co. holds concession to operate and manage new sports betting games in Greece as well as a right of first refusal to operate and manage any new lottery games permitted by the Hellenic Republic. Co. operates six numerical lottery games, including Joker, Lotto, Proto, Extra 5, Super 3, and Kino; and three sports betting games consisting of Stihima, Propo, and Propo-goal. Co. is also engaged in designing new lottery games, including Bingo and Super 4. Co. distributes its games through an extensive on-line network of agents.

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GRS419003009 Greece

Provider

Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

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Analysts

Richard Williamson

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