Vermilion Energy - Q219 FFO 4.8% below consensus
Vermilion has reported Q219 FFO (fund flows from operations) of C$222.7m, 4.8% below consensus of C$233.8m and 8.2% below our forecast of C$242.5m despite a 14% increase in FFO y-o-y. Key drivers of the miss versus our forecast include reduced production in France due to a refinery outage which had a post-tax FFO impact of C$11m and an inventory build in Australia which had an impact of C$8m. At 103.0kboed, production was 1.2% ahead of our forecast despite the outage in France, driven by new wells contributing in the US (production +21% q-o-q) and Australia (+14% q-o-q). Guidance for FY19 production remains 101–106kboed (with the mid-point implying 19% y-o-y growth) and Vermilion’s capex budget of C$530m remains unchanged. Our last published valuation was C$47.5/share, based on a blend of FY19 P/CF, EV/EBIDAX and multiple of FCF plus five-year NAV growth. We note that there has been a material de-rating in the Canadian large-cap E&P sector which currently trades at an average 2.7x FY19e P/CF versus 3.8x at the time of our last Vermilion publication.Vermilion Energy, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the business of oil and natural gas exploitation, development, acquisition and production in Canada, France, the Netherlands, Australia and Ireland.
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.
.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.