Elixir Securities

Elixir Securities Pakistan is a Corporate Member of the Pakistan Stock Exchange & Pakistan Mercantile Exchange and is one of the leading securities brokerage & investment banking firms in Pakistan, established since 1994. Our principal business activities include all aspects of Pakistan’s Capital Markets covering Securities Brokerage (Equities, Fixed Income and Commodities), Corporate Finance & Capital Markets Advisory (M&A, ECM, DCM) and Investment Research (Economics & Securities). We are one of the most active & aggressive Broker-Dealers in Pakistan executing trades for most of the Top 20 Global Brokers with unmatched corporate access credentials and have successfully advised and closed on some landmark ECM transactions in the history of Pakistan including the largest deal in frontier Asia (USD 1.02 billion). Our Clients include foreign and domestic financial institutions (Banks, Asset Managers, Insurance Companies, Pension Funds) corporates, HNWI’s and retail investors. This is supported by a very strong and independent research capability, which is quoted regularly in both local and international media.

Elixir Securities Pakistan is the proud recipient of many awards & recognitions including AsiaMoney’s Brokers Poll 2017, FinanceAsia’s Pakistan Best Investment Bank and Best Broker 2017, The Asset’s Best Brokerage House in Pakistan 2016, Asiamoney’s “Best Domestic Equity House 2015 in Pakistan”, The Asset Triple A Country Awards 2015 - Pakistan “Deal of the Year” and “Deal of the Year-Highly Commended”, CFA Society of Pakistan Awards for Year 2015 “Best Research Analyst (1st Rank), CFA Society of Pakistan Awards for Year 2014 “Best Research Analyst (1st Rank)”, “Best Trader” 2nd Runner-up (3rd Rank), The Asset Triple A Country Awards 2014’s “Best Deal in Pakistan” and Capital Finance International’s nomination for “Best Equity Research in Pakistan 2010”.

Syed Tahseen Jawed

Open End Mutual Funds Industry - Ad Oculos

Assets under Management (AUMs) for the Open End Mutual Fund Industry Increased by 4.6% MoM to PKR569bn as at Jan-19, driven by growth in Equity Funds  due to equity market performance AUM’s for Conventional / Shariah Compliant Equity Funds stood at PKR137bn / PKR70bn, up 8.1%/10.5% MoM. Liquidity position (including investment in T-Bills) for both the categories combined declined from  PKR15.2bn (8% of AUM’s) to PKR14.0bn (7% of AUM’s) Looking at the stock wise exposure, Conventional Equity Funds were most concentrated in Bank Alfalah (BAFL), United Bank (UBL) and Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – ...

Elixir Research

Pakistan Equity Market: Weekly Review - Index Closes Above 41k Mark on Foreign Buying

KSE100 Index continued to rally into 5th straight week led by foreign buying interest, particularly in Banking stocks. The Index gained 848pts (2.1%) during the week, taking 2019TD return to 10.9%. Market activity also remained elevated during the week with average daily traded volumes inching up by 3.8%WoW to 175mn shares. The index was mainly driven by Banks, Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), Automobile Assemblers and Oil Exploration & Production Companies (E&Ps) contributing respective gains of 234pts (28%), 129pts (15%), 83pts (10%) and 74pts (9%) in the Benchmark Index. Banks remained in ...

Mohammad Zain-ul-Abedin

Elixir Grid - KSE100: Make or Break?

Bourse extended its rise for the fifth consecutive week with benchmark KSE100 Index closing on a buoyant note amid expanding turnover at 41,113 level. Overcoming multiple barriers i.e. daily 144 EMA (40,314) followed by a descending resistance at 40,700 level in the outgoing week further strengthened the near-term structure and pushed the Index higher to set an intra-day high of 41,211 on last Friday; however it settled marginally below its daily 233 EMA at 41,127 mark....

Sharoon Ahmad

Pakistan Economy - Monetary Policy Tightening Continues

SBP announced its monetary policy yesterday where it decided to raise PR/DR by 25bps to 10.25%/10.75% against our and consensus expectation of status quo. SBP reasoned the need to continue monetary tightening as part of consolidation measures aimed at reining in high Twin Deficits and inflationary pressures...

Sharoon Ahmad

Flash Note: International Steels Limited - Tax Reversals Support Earnings

International Steels (ISL) announced its 2QFY19 result, where it posted PAT of PKR907mn (EPS: PKR2.09), down 23%YoY from PKR841mn (EPS: PKR2.71) in 2QFY18 owing to GM contraction and higher finance cost. While the earnings came in line with our expectation of PKR2.10/share, there were significant variations where topline exceeded our expectation, GM shrank significantly in comparison to our expectation of no change, finance cost was lower than our projection, and 4% tax reversal was booked likely on account of BMR tax credit (PKR540mn available) with new CRC plant’s COD. Along with the resu...

Syed Tahseen Jawed

Open End Mutual Funds Industry - Ad Oculos

Assets under Management (AUMs) for the Open End Mutual Fund Industry Increased by 4.6% MoM to PKR569bn as at Jan-19, driven by growth in Equity Funds  due to equity market performance AUM’s for Conventional / Shariah Compliant Equity Funds stood at PKR137bn / PKR70bn, up 8.1%/10.5% MoM. Liquidity position (including investment in T-Bills) for both the categories combined declined from  PKR15.2bn (8% of AUM’s) to PKR14.0bn (7% of AUM’s) Looking at the stock wise exposure, Conventional Equity Funds were most concentrated in Bank Alfalah (BAFL), United Bank (UBL) and Habib Bank Limited (HBL) – ...

Elixir Research

Pakistan Equity Market: Weekly Review - Index Closes Above 41k Mark on Foreign Buying

KSE100 Index continued to rally into 5th straight week led by foreign buying interest, particularly in Banking stocks. The Index gained 848pts (2.1%) during the week, taking 2019TD return to 10.9%. Market activity also remained elevated during the week with average daily traded volumes inching up by 3.8%WoW to 175mn shares. The index was mainly driven by Banks, Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), Automobile Assemblers and Oil Exploration & Production Companies (E&Ps) contributing respective gains of 234pts (28%), 129pts (15%), 83pts (10%) and 74pts (9%) in the Benchmark Index. Banks remained in ...

Mohammad Zain-ul-Abedin

Elixir Grid - KSE100: Make or Break?

Bourse extended its rise for the fifth consecutive week with benchmark KSE100 Index closing on a buoyant note amid expanding turnover at 41,113 level. Overcoming multiple barriers i.e. daily 144 EMA (40,314) followed by a descending resistance at 40,700 level in the outgoing week further strengthened the near-term structure and pushed the Index higher to set an intra-day high of 41,211 on last Friday; however it settled marginally below its daily 233 EMA at 41,127 mark....

Sharoon Ahmad

Flash Note: International Steels Limited - Tax Reversals Support Earnings

International Steels (ISL) announced its 2QFY19 result, where it posted PAT of PKR907mn (EPS: PKR2.09), down 23%YoY from PKR841mn (EPS: PKR2.71) in 2QFY18 owing to GM contraction and higher finance cost. While the earnings came in line with our expectation of PKR2.10/share, there were significant variations where topline exceeded our expectation, GM shrank significantly in comparison to our expectation of no change, finance cost was lower than our projection, and 4% tax reversal was booked likely on account of BMR tax credit (PKR540mn available) with new CRC plant’s COD. Along with the resu...

Elixir Research

Pakistan Equity Market: Weekly Review - Foreign Buying Propels the Index by 2.4%

KSE100 Index rallied 958pts (2.4%) on the back of favorable announcements in Economic Reforms package by Finance Minister during the week. Market activity too improved with average daily traded value/volumes going up by 32%/43%WoW to USD53mn/168mn shares. In the recently announced Economic Reforms Packaged, the government introduced a number of measures to promote businesses which included reduction in Customs Duties on raw material and machinery imports, end of Super Tax for non-banking companies (from FY21), abolishment of tax on retained earnings, restoration of Group Relief for taxation o...

Syed Tahseen Jawed

Open End Mutual Funds Industry - Ad Oculos

Assets under Management (AUMs) for the Open End Mutual Fund (OEF) Industry Increased by 3.7% MoM to PKR591bn as at Oct-18, largely driven by an MoM growth of 14.1% in Money Market Funds which recorded net inflow of almost PKR18bn during the month. AUM’s for Conventional / Shariah Compliant Equity Funds stood at PKR148bn / PKR75bn as at the end of Oct-18. Liquidity position (including investment in T-Bills) for both the categories combined declined from  PKR19.8bn (9% of AUM’s) to PKR17.8bn (8% of AUM’s). Looking at the stock wise exposure, Conventional Equity Funds remained most concentrate...

Syed Tahseen Jawed

Open End Mutual Funds Industry - Ad Oculos

Assets under Management (AUMs) for the Open End Mutual Fund (OEF) Industry declined by 2.7% MoM to PKR570bn as at Sep-18, with Shariah Compliant Equity Fund Category being the key culprit (AUM’s dropped 5.1% MoM to PKR73bn). AUM’s for Conventional / Shariah Compliant Equity Funds stood at PKR146bn / PKR73bn as at the end of Sep-18. Liquidity position (including investment in T-Bills) for both the categories combined declined from  PKR23.9bn (10% of AUM’s) to PKR19.8bn (9% of AUM’s). Looking at the stock wise exposure, Conventional Equity Funds were most concentrated in Habib Bank Limited (H...

Elixir Research

Open End Mutual Funds Industry - Ad Oculos

Assets under Management (AUMs) for the Open End Mutual Fund (OEF) Industry declined 1.6% MoM to PKR586bn as at Aug-18, with Money Market Fund Category being the key culprit (AUM’s dropped 4.0% MoM to PKR132bn. AUM’s for Conventional / Shariah Compliant Equity Funds stood at PKR151bn / PKR77bn as at the end of Aug-18. While the decline in Equity AUM’s was only marginal, their Liquidity Position decreased to PKR23.9bn (10% of AUMs) as at Aug-18, compared to PKR25.1bn (11% of AUMs) as at Jul-18. Looking at the stock wise exposure, Conventional Equity Funds were most concentrated in Pakistan Pet...

Syed Tahseen Jawed

Open End Mutual Funds Industry - Ad Oculos

Assets under Management (AUMs) for the Open End Mutual Fund Industry decreased 0.4%MoM to PKR596bn in May-18; AUMs for Money Market Funds grew 10%MoM to PKR140bn which was negated by decline in Equity Funds Liquidity Position for Equity Funds (Conventional & Shariah Compliant) increased to PKR18.1bn (8% of AUMs) as at May-18, compared to PKR17.8bn as at Apr-18 During May-18, Mutual Funds sold shares worth USD21mn, with the selling concentrated in Cements and E&P sectors

Syed Tahseen Jawed

Open End Mutual Funds Industry - Ad oculos

Assets under Management (AUMs) for the Open End Mutual Fund Industry increased 1.5%MoM to PKR599bn in Apr-18; the bulk of the growth was contributed by Money Market and Conventional Equity Funds Cash Position for Equity Funds (Conventional & Shariah Compliant) increased to PKR16.0bn (7% of AUMs) as at Apr-18, compared to PKR18.4bn as at Mar-18 During Apr-18, Mutual Funds mopped up shares worth USD73mn, with the buying concentrated in Oil & Gas Exploration, Fertilizer and Banking sectors

Sharoon Ahmad

Pakistan Economy - Monetary Policy Tightening Continues

SBP announced its monetary policy yesterday where it decided to raise PR/DR by 25bps to 10.25%/10.75% against our and consensus expectation of status quo. SBP reasoned the need to continue monetary tightening as part of consolidation measures aimed at reining in high Twin Deficits and inflationary pressures...

Sharoon Ahmad

Pakistan Economy - Status Quo Expected in Jan-19 MPS

We expect SBP to keep interest rates unchanged with DR/PR at 10.5%/10.0% in upcoming monetary policy as interest rate upcycle is likely to come to an end. Our expectation is underpinned on slowdown in inflation level, policy tightening causing decline in non-oil imports, REER having reached 101 and slowdown in LSM activity.  Money market yields indicate expectation of 0-50bps hike in interest rate as  12M T-bills secondary market yields / 12M KIBOR have increased by 46bps/32bps since the last monetary policy.

Sharoon Ahmad

Pakistan Economy - REER Estimated to Have Reached 100.6 by Dec-18

To the surprise of many market participants, REER came off by only 1.6-2.1%MoM (IMF/SBP REER: 105.0/106.4) during Nov-18 despite 5.8%MoM depreciation in PKR/USD. This was attributable to average exchange rate used for estimating NEER and REER as average PKR/USD depreciated by just 1.5%MoM in Nov-18 which explains the deviation. Thus 4.2%MoM depreciation in average PKR/USD and 0.1-1.3% decline in RPI is expected to have taken REER to 100.6 by the end of Dec-18.

Sharoon Ahmad

Pakistan Economy - Lower Oil Prices to Ease Off Inflationary Pressures

CPI Inflation is expected to rise moderately to 6.7%YoY in Dec-18 due to decline in food and fuel items’ prices driven by lower international oil prices. We expect inflation trajectory to ease off going forward owing to lower expected oil price outlook and both fiscal/monetary tightening. However, we expect inflation to sharply jump to 8.7%YoY in Jan-19 owing to 11% increase in average electricity tariff. In this backdrop, we have marginaly revised down our average FY19 CPI general/NFNE inflation estimates to 7.7%/8.6%.

Sharoon Ahmad

Pakistan Economy - CAD Expected at USD1.23bn in Nov-18

We estimate CAD to remain relatively flat at USD1.23bn in Nov-18 compared to that in preceding month as improvement in trade deficit is expected to be offset by 20%MoM dip in remittances. On yearly basis, CAD is expected to improve by 14%YoY mainly led by 11%YoY decline in Goods’ Imports in spite of 12%YoY dip in Goods’ Exports (based on estimated SBP numbers). On cumulative basis, CAD is expected to total USD6.07bn in 5MFY19 down marginally by 3%YoY where major improvement has been owed to 13%YoY improvement in remittances where higher international oil prices during the earlier months mask...

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