Elixir Securities - Pakistan Federal Budget FY19 - Budget for the Interim?

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Elixir Securities

Elixir Research

EUR 20.34 For Business Accounts Only

Pakistan Federal Budget FY19 - Budget for the Interim?

In Absence of Concrete Revenue Growth Measures… FY19 Fiscal Deficit Target of 4.9% is Likely to be Missed

The government announced a budget outlay of PKR5.9tn for FY19, 16%YoY/11%YoY higher than budgeted/revised FY18 outlay
With the relief on Income Tax for Individuals alone accounting for ~PKR100bn in lost taxes, the Finance Bill does not shed light on how the double digit growth in revenues will be achieved
This raises downside risks on projected Fiscal Deficit of PKR1.9tn; which along with our lower expected FY19 GDP growth forecast of 5% (vs government’s target of 6.2%) implies that Fiscal Deficit as a percentage of GDP may well breach government’s target of 4.9%

29/04/2018 24 EN

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Elixir Securities

Elixir Securities Pakistan is a Corporate Member of the Pakistan Stock Exchange & Pakistan Mercantile Exchange and is one of the leading securities brokerage & investment banking firms in Pakistan, established since 1994. Our principal business activities include all aspects of Pakistan’s Capital Markets covering Securities Brokerage (Equities, Fixed Income and Commodities), Corporate Finance & Capital Markets Advisory (M&A, ECM, DCM) and Investment Research (Economics & Securities). We are one of the most active & aggressive Broker-Dealers in Pakistan executing trades for most of the Top 20 Global Brokers with unmatched corporate access credentials and have successfully advised and closed on some landmark ECM transactions in the history of Pakistan including the largest deal in frontier Asia (USD 1.02 billion). Our Clients include foreign and domestic financial institutions (Banks, Asset Managers, Insurance Companies, Pension Funds) corporates, HNWI’s and retail investors. This is supported by a very strong and independent research capability, which is quoted regularly in both local and international media.

Elixir Securities Pakistan is the proud recipient of many awards & recognitions including AsiaMoney’s Brokers Poll 2017, FinanceAsia’s Pakistan Best Investment Bank and Best Broker 2017, The Asset’s Best Brokerage House in Pakistan 2016, Asiamoney’s “Best Domestic Equity House 2015 in Pakistan”, The Asset Triple A Country Awards 2015 - Pakistan “Deal of the Year” and “Deal of the Year-Highly Commended”, CFA Society of Pakistan Awards for Year 2015 “Best Research Analyst (1^st Rank), CFA Society of Pakistan Awards for Year 2014 “Best Research Analyst (1^st Rank)”, “Best Trader” 2nd Runner-up (3rd Rank), The Asset Triple A Country Awards 2014’s “Best Deal in Pakistan” and Capital Finance International’s nomination for “Best Equity Research in Pakistan 2010”.

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Pakistan Federal Budget FY19 - Budget for the Interim?

Open End Mutual Funds Industry - Ad Oculos

Pakistan Equity Market: Weekly Review - Index Closes Above 41k Mark on Foreign Buying

Elixir Grid - KSE100: Make or Break?

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