Report
Chris Wickham

Ultimately, there is Growth

Ultimate Products Global Sourcing Holdings PLC (UPGS) looks well placed to return to growth. UPGS enjoys a combination of well-known household brands, a proprietary approach to managing those brands, and significant growth headroom within its distribution channels. Moreover, after a challenging H1, sales trends improved in FY2018 H2. With a strong management team and, arguably, an attractive valuation, the shares should attract investors’ attention.

UPGS is a consumer goods company with a robust portfolio of household durable goods brands. Its premier offering includes Beldray, Salter, Russell Hobbs, Intempo and Progress. Uniquely, the company offers these brands at attractive prices and in categories which expand the overall footprint of the brand names.
In our view, UPGS’s brand management approach positions these key names for growth but in a way which will generate shareholder value. UPGS’s portfolio should experience what we refer to as mature market volume growth, which is arguably the strongest driver of value creation in the UK consumer goods sector. Overall management quality tends to be confirmed by clear vision and smart strategic positioning.
Given the UK retail climate at the moment, it is challenging to set a precise value on the shares. But to give some guidance we look at our revenue estimate for FY2019 and, even applying a conservative 1x EV/sales multiple, come out with a share price of £1 per share.

Furthermore, we are encouraged by the resilience that UPGS has shown in these challenging times when others have floundered. We highlight the strength of their balance sheet, as well as their ability to adapt quickly to external challenges - e.g. by focusing on international and online opportunities.
Underlyings
Accrol Group Holdings

Accrol Group Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is a tissue converter manufacturing toilet rolls, kitchen rolls, facial tissues and away from home products (AFH). Co. supplies a range of independents, discounters and multiples as well as a variety of AFH customers throughout the U.K. Co. imports Parent Reels from around the world and converts them into finished goods at its manufacturing, storage and distribution facilities in Blackburn and Leyland, Lancashire.

eve Sleep

eve Sleep is an e-commerce company. Co. is focused on direct to consumer European sleep brand which designs and sells eve-branded mattresses and other sleep products. Co. has six products, including foam mattress, topper, pillow, sheets, protector and duvet. Co.'s foam mattress made are up of three layers: a base layer of high-density foam, which provides support and durability; a middle layer of open-celled foam, which encourages air flow; and a top layer of next-generation memory foam, which moulds around pressure points and then springs back once the pressure is released. Co.'s protector product is made of 100% cotton and a Neotherm membrane.

Gear4Music Holdings

Gear4music (Holdings) is an e-commerce retailer of musical instruments and music equipment. The products are sourced from over 710 manufacturers, and range from kazoos to digital pianos, drum kits and guitars.

UP Global Sourcing Holdings plc

Warpaint London

Warpaint London is focused on color cosmetics, which it separates into four categories: Face make-up: foundation, blushers, illuminators, and powders and loose and pressed powders; Eye make-up: eye shadows, eyeliners, eyebrow pencils and mascara; Lip make-up: lipstick and glosses, lip pencils, lip plumpers and palettes; and Nail make-up: nail varnishes, polishes, hardeners and strengtheners, base and top coat. Co. consists of two separate divisions, own-brand, which its W7 brand sells to street retailers, beauty shops, and online sales channel; and close-out, which representing its business, buys and sells close-out and excess stock of branded cosmetics and fragrances from around the world.

Provider
Equity Development
Equity Development

​Equity Development enables companies to become better understood and supported by investors. Since our launch in 1996 we have consistently focused on helping our clients improve their communication and relationships with both existing and potential shareholders. Our clients have come from a wide variety of sectors and domiciles, are both private and quoted and range in size from micro-cap to $multi-billions. We offer free access to company research notes written by experienced analysts. These notes include detailed forecasts, financial models and a fair value. We host regular Private Investor Forums at which investors have the opportunity to hear company directors present, and to ask questions. These are free to attend. We broadcast live Webinars with company management that include active Q&A. We also make the recordings available online. We arrange face to face meetings between private investors and company management. We are active users of Twitter, commenting daily on company news, share price moves, Directors’ Dealings, Equity Development Research Notes & Events.

Analysts
Chris Wickham

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