Report

Back on track

MPAC is a specialist provider of high speed packaging machines (76% of sales) and complementary services (24%, eg spares/maintenance) with c. 350 staff.

MPAC’s recent ‘bump’ occurred after experiencing a temporary lull in demand with H1 bookings being 20% below LY, primarily because of macro uncertainties and delayed customer decision making. The good news is that since the July profit warning, orderflow has started to recover, albeit pipeline conversion is still not fully back to normal.

More positively, the previously announced £1m of cost-overruns relating to two legacy contracts (one in Canada and the other UK) have been thoroughly investigated with remediation plans now in place. Here, the UK first-of-a-kind machinery project is being commissioned with final delivery set for H2’19. While the Canadian job should be concluded by December.

Management reckon today’s backlog is of much “higher quality and lower complexity” than before. In turn, underpinning this morning’s ‘in line’ 1st half results and confident outlook. Where H1’18 adjusted EBIT came in at £0.0m (£0.3m LY), impacted by the above one-off contract issues – on turnover up 11% to £28.2m (£25.4m) thanks to the strong opening orderbook.

Plus, there is no shortage of financial muscle to execute strategic initiatives, with net cash of £24.9m, equivale Importantly from a risk perspective, we estimate that as there is >90% cover to reach our 2018 sales and EBIT forecasts of £57.0m and £1.5m respectively. Aided by the extra cost cutting measures (eg headcount reductions) that were implemented after the period end. nt to 123p/share. Which together with the 253p/share of tangible net assets, should also in our view, provide a solid floor under the 120p stockprice.

Accordingly, we make no change to either our forecasts or 170p/share valuation.
Underlyings
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Provider
Equity Development
Equity Development

​Equity Development enables companies to become better understood and supported by investors. Since our launch in 1996 we have consistently focused on helping our clients improve their communication and relationships with both existing and potential shareholders. Our clients have come from a wide variety of sectors and domiciles, are both private and quoted and range in size from micro-cap to $multi-billions. We offer free access to company research notes written by experienced analysts. These notes include detailed forecasts, financial models and a fair value. We host regular Private Investor Forums at which investors have the opportunity to hear company directors present, and to ask questions. These are free to attend. We broadcast live Webinars with company management that include active Q&A. We also make the recordings available online. We arrange face to face meetings between private investors and company management. We are active users of Twitter, commenting daily on company news, share price moves, Directors’ Dealings, Equity Development Research Notes & Events.

Analysts
Paul Hill

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