Report
David O'Brien

Strong end to 2020: profits upgraded

Significantly improved guidance in today’s FY20 trading update has resulted in adj PBT expectations rising for a second time within three months.

The FY20F trading update delivered a positive profits surprise, with guidance for adj. PBT lifted by 20% from £6.0m to £7.2m, reflecting a much stronger than anticipated Christmas trading period in November and December. Trading continued to be strong across several businesses: CEE, (especially Lithuania), ISL (toys) and Freight Forwarding well into the third week of December.

While several businesses have had a slow start to FY21, reflecting the business recorded during late December, we believe Brexit to be an opportunity for Xpediator. The Group’s customs clearance resource has been improved and the current chaos at borders is likely to result in XPD attracting new customers, with an opportunity to then cross-sell additional services.

We raise our guidance on fair value / share to 60p (previously 50p) to reflect the 20% uplift to adj. PBT projections. The shares continue to represent good value relative to its peers, with XPD shares trading at a significant discount to that group’s average valuation.
Underlyings
Clipper Logistics plc

FedEx Corporation

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce and business services through companies under the FedEx brand. These companies are included in the following segments: Federal Express Corporation, including TNT Express B.V., is an express transportation company; FedEx Ground Package System, Inc., which is a provider of small-package ground delivery services; FedEx Freight Corporation, which is a provider of less-than-truckload freight services; and FedEx Corporate Services, Inc., which provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collections services, and certain back-office functions.

Kuehne & Nagel International AG

Kuehne & Nagel International is a holding company, engaged in providing logistics solutions. Co.'s business units comprised of: Seafreight, Airfreight, Overland, and Contract logistics. Co. operates on a worldwide basis in the following geographical areas: Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific and Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. Within its Seafreight, Airfreight and Overland business units, Co. is engaged in purchasing transportation services from direct (asset-based) carriers and selling a combination of those services to its customers. Co. also develops solutions for the construction, renovation and operation of hotel chains and casinos all over the world.

Provider
Equity Development
Equity Development

​Equity Development enables companies to become better understood and supported by investors. Since our launch in 1996 we have consistently focused on helping our clients improve their communication and relationships with both existing and potential shareholders. Our clients have come from a wide variety of sectors and domiciles, are both private and quoted and range in size from micro-cap to $multi-billions. We offer free access to company research notes written by experienced analysts. These notes include detailed forecasts, financial models and a fair value. We host regular Private Investor Forums at which investors have the opportunity to hear company directors present, and to ask questions. These are free to attend. We broadcast live Webinars with company management that include active Q&A. We also make the recordings available online. We arrange face to face meetings between private investors and company management. We are active users of Twitter, commenting daily on company news, share price moves, Directors’ Dealings, Equity Development Research Notes & Events.

Analysts
David O'Brien

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