Report
Mike Jeremy

H1 Trading Update: positive momentum continues

In a Trading Update for the six months to 30 June 2024, Mpac reports strong order intake of c.£60m and a closing first half order book of c.£71m. Consequently, the Group expects to post H1 24 revenue of c.£61m, significantly ahead year-on-year, being 16% above H1 23 (£52.8m).

A consequence of the strength of first half order intake is, as anticipated, an expansion of working capital, required to provision inventory for new projects. This is expected to unwind in the second half alongside the gathering pace of performance towards the close of the year. The estimated H1 revenue of c.£61m represents 50.8% of our FY24 target (£120m), whereas at the same stage in FY23 (£52.8m), H1 revenue represented 46.2% of the full year outcome (£114.2m).

Having raised both our estimates and fair value in March, we maintain our current outlook.

Despite a strong run, Mpac’s share price is currently trading at 5% below its one-year high and the outlook indicates that the Group continues to offer compelling value. Our Fair Value of 530p/share is indicative of a FY25 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.1x and PE of 12.1x, respectively 33% and 28% below the market cap weighted average of a group of Mpac peers, on multiples of 10.6x EV/EBITDA and 16.9x PE.
Underlying
Mpac Group

Mpac Group is focused on its Packaging Machinery business, Mpac Langen, which designs, precision engineers and manufactures packaging solutions, machinery and high specification automation, secondary packaging equipment and end-of-line robotics and at-line instrumentation and testing solutions as well as providing solutions including the design and integration of packaging systems.

Provider
Equity Development
Equity Development

​Equity Development enables companies to become better understood and supported by investors. Since our launch in 1996 we have consistently focused on helping our clients improve their communication and relationships with both existing and potential shareholders. Our clients have come from a wide variety of sectors and domiciles, are both private and quoted and range in size from micro-cap to $multi-billions. We offer free access to company research notes written by experienced analysts. These notes include detailed forecasts, financial models and a fair value. We host regular Private Investor Forums at which investors have the opportunity to hear company directors present, and to ask questions. These are free to attend. We broadcast live Webinars with company management that include active Q&A. We also make the recordings available online. We arrange face to face meetings between private investors and company management. We are active users of Twitter, commenting daily on company news, share price moves, Directors’ Dealings, Equity Development Research Notes & Events.

Analysts
Mike Jeremy

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