Unhelpful markets drive estimate downgrades
Speedy Hire's trading update causes us to downgrade our expectations, with weaker-than-anticipated Q4 trading driving a 15% EBITDA downgrade to the guided c.£90m.FY26E revenue stands at £417.7m, broadly flat year-on-year, with an adjusted PBT loss of £(4.2)m, EPS of (0.72)p, a reduced DPS of 1.00p, and year-end net debt of c.£159m.
Speedy's ProService strategy continues to develop positively. Staff transfers have settled, hire asset and depot integration is well-advanced, and acquired asset utilisation has edged higher, pointing to meaningful operational momentum beyond the current subdued cycle.
Valuation remains compelling. The shares trade at an EV/EBITDA of 2.7× on trough earnings, yet the DCF-based fair value of 61p — over three times the current 19.3p — reflects long-term EBITDA of c.£127m, a figure which is still below our revised FY 28 estimate.
Speedy Hire provides hire equipment and services to enable the delivery of customer projects. Co.'s reportable business segments comprise U.K. and Ireland Asset Services and International Asset Services. The U.K. and Ireland Asset Services delivers asset management, with tailored services and a continued commitment to relationship management. The International Asset Services delivers major overseas projects and facilities management contracts by providing a managed site support service.
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