On track to hit FY20 expectations
The holy grail for corporates is to create a sustainable edge that produces superior returns over the long term, and whose advantage is not eroded by time or competition. We think specialist plant hire firm Vp, with its strong niche positions, has achieved this. What’s more at 810p, its shares today trade at an historically low 8.0x PER, whilst also paying a 4.0% yield.Sure there are some macro headwinds, such as Brexit, lackluster global growth and US vs China trade wars. Yet equally the company is performing well, as illustrated again this morning. Here the group said that FY20 was on track to hit expectations. UK infrastructure spend is “holding up wellâ€, whilst housebuilding remains stable, due to near-record levels of employment, low borrowing costs, good mortgage availability and the popular Help to Buy scheme. Partly offset by softness in general construction, particularly centred on London and the South East
Elsewhere, the £69.2m acquisition of Brandon Hire in Nov’17 has been successfully integrated with Hire Station. Some of the synergies will be realised later, albeit we estimate the deal should ultimately deliver c.£4m of annualised savings, related to procurement/cost improvements, economies of scale and greater asset/inventory utilisation. In turn, boosting the original RoI from 8.7% to >14% - materially above Vp’s ‘through cycle’ cost of capital
Lastly, despite experiencing a “softer start to FY20†than anticipated, Vp’s International division has recently enjoyed an uptick in activity levels across petrochemical and test & measurement. All told, we reiterate our adjusted FY20 PBT forecast of £49.6m and 1,075p/share valuation – offering 33% upside to patient investors.
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