DCM Navigates Integration Challenges with Strategic Focus on H2/2024 Revenue Growth and Margin Improvements
DATA Communications Management Corp. (“DCM”) is a Canadian-based provider of marketing and business communication solutions to companies in North America. Its technology-enabled content and workflow management capabilities solve the complex branding, communications, logistics, and regulatory requirements of leading enterprises so its customers can accomplish more in less time. Its services include printing, data & content management, labels & asset tracking, location-specific marketing, and multimedia campaign management. (1.) Company Update: (1.1) DCM reported revenue of $125.8 million in Q2/2024, up 5.7% from $118.9 million in Q2/2023, but below our estimate of $136.5 million. (1.2) Revenue fell short of expectations due to deferred spending by several key clients in the retail and financial sectors, as well as strategic decisions to exit lower-margin business lines. These deferred projects are expected to contribute to revenue in the third and fourth quarters. In response, we adjusted our 2024 revenue estimate to $520.3 million from $542.3 million to reflect the timing shift in client spending. (1.3) For the first half year, DCM reported adding $4.2 million in new sales from 30 new clients and $19.2 million in “expansion” revenue from existing clients, which are anticipated to be recognized over the next 12 months. The Company continues to target an overall annual organic revenue growth rate of over 5%, with a focus on expanding its technology-enabled solutions. (2.0) Financial Analysis & Valuation: (2.1) We updated our model with DCM’s recent financials, shifted the model ahead one quarter, and reduced the revenue in 2024 to reflect the lower first-half revenue. (2.2) We estimate an equal-weighted price target of $6.53 based on a DCF valuation ($9.40/share), a Revenue Multiple valuation ($5.70/share), and an EBITDA Multiple valuation ($4.50/share). (2.3) We are maintaining our Buy rating but lowering our one-year price target to $6.55 from $6.75.Data Communications Management is an unincorporated, open-ended, limited purpose trust. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the provision of total document management solutions including printed products. Co. offers a variety of print and electronic products and related services, which include traditional business forms, labels, direct mail products, security documents, commercial print, and facility and print management.
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