Greek Equity Strategy - 2022 Outlook | Playing Tug of War
2021: “life in the fast lane" – 2021 was quite an eventful year, with swings in risk perception as initial enthusiasm about vaccine progress was followed by concerns about inflation, a pivot in central bank policy (Fed) and the impact from the Omicron variant. As a result, after a 12% return until mid-May 2021, Greek stocks were flat in the remainder of the year, affected by the general de-risking mood and some idiosyncratic headwinds (liquidity drain from capital raisings and issuance activity on the credit side). Overall, the ASE ended the year with a 12% total return, a somewhat tepid performance in the context of the >20% gains recorded by several other markets.2022: “Tug of war” – Despite yesterday’s sell-off, 2022 has started on the front foot (ASE +2.4% ytd) with investors keen to add exposure in Greece starting from a clean slate. Greece has also benefited from the general rotation to value, as indicated by the outperformance of the banking sector (GR banks +9% ytd). Looking ahead, the path in 2022 is likely to be somewhat bumpy, we reckon, given the more complicated policy backdrop, rising yields and sticky inflation. However, we are quite constructive on the Greek market given: 1) positive macroeconomic prospects (GDP 4.5-5% in 2022) which should filter through to 2-digit EBITDA growth for non-financials in 2022-23; 2) the growth impulse from the RRF, which should further propel Greece’s medium-term growth prospects; 3) compelling valuations, both on an absolute (non-fins at c7x EV/EBITDA, in line with their long-term average, equity risk premium at >6%) and on a relative basis (Greek non fins at c30% discount vs peers); 4) low investor positioning (€1bn net outlays by foreign institutional investors in 2018-21); 5) Greece's visible path towards investment grade status in the next 12-18 months which should improve risk perception for Greek assets.
Banks: Build Back Better – After a landmark year characterized by the remarkable progress on balance sheet repair, we expect the focus to shift on profitability, with prospects looking quite positive in our view. We anticipate a number of important tailwinds ahead, namely: i) the macro recovery underpinned by EU RRF and ECB’s decisions, ii) rating upgrades, iii) the potential launch of the re-privatization process for the sector by the HFSF, iv) the international rotation into value stocks in anticipation of higher rates. We thus retain a constructive stance on banks, expecting the sector to rerate during the year given the attractive valuation of 0.5x 2022e P/TBV.
Top picks – We expect swings in risk perception to create several opportunities for alpha during the year. Having recalibrated our top pick recommendations, we have given our portfolio a pro-cyclical tilt by adding Fourlis (value crystallization from REIC demerger). Overall, at this stage we advise exposure in the following: 1) stocks with high and sustainable dividend yields, with limited impact from cost inflation (e.g. OPAP); 2) policy-related stocks offering exposure in the green transition (PPC, Mytilineos); 3) banks, in view of normalizing earnings, credit expansion and the still attractive valuation (NBG); 4) reopening stories/cyclicals (OPAP, Mytilineos, Motor Oil, Fourlis).
Aegean Airlines is an airline carrier based in Greece. Co. is engaged in aviation transportation, providing services that concern the transportation of passengers and commodities in the sector of public aviation transportation inside and outside Greece, conducting scheduled and unscheduled flights. Co. provides full service, premium quality short and medium haul services. Co. maintains a network of 145 destinations, 111 international in 45 countries and 34 domestic destinations. Co. is a member of global airline network, the Star Alliance network.
Alpha Bank is a banking and financial services group which is based in Greece. Co. is engaged in offering a range of services including retail, SME and corporate banking, credit cards, asset management, investment banking, private banking, brokerage, leasing and factoring. Co. is also active in international financial market, with a presence in Cyprus, Romania, London, Serbia, Albania, Jersey (Channel Islands), Bulgaria, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and New York. Co. maintains a focus on retail banking in Greece and particularly loans to individuals and small business loans, and overall expansion in Southeastern Europe. Co.'s activities are divided into retail and wholesale banking.
Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. produces, sells and distributes an extensive portfolio of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. Co.'s business is engaged in producing, selling and distributing non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages under bottlers' agreements with The Coca-Cola Company. In some Territories, Co. also produces, sells, distributes and markets its own brands of juice and Water beverages. In addition, Co. bottles and distributes beer in Bulgaria and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Co. distributes a selected number of third party premium spirit brands in certain central and eastern European operations.
Co. is engaged in the manufacture, import and distribution of electrical household appliances and the manufacture of FOURLIS kitchen hoods. In addition, through a subsidiary, Co. is engaged in the operation of a retail chain.
Co. is a consumer goods manufacturer and distributor engaged in operations in Greece. Co. produces consumer goods such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, households, pet products, car's accessories and apparel. Co. produces its own brand name of cosmetic products such as Prosar, Str8, BU99, Clochard, Carroten, Tokalon and others. Co.'s product portfolio also includes a range of international brands such as Estee Lauder, Clinique, Aramis, Donna Karen, Orlane, Montana Versace and others.
OPAP is engaged in the operating and management of numerical lottery and sports betting games as well as lottery games. Co. holds concession to operate and manage new sports betting games in Greece as well as a right of first refusal to operate and manage any new lottery games permitted by the Hellenic Republic. Co. operates six numerical lottery games, including Joker, Lotto, Proto, Extra 5, Super 3, and Kino; and three sports betting games consisting of Stihima, Propo, and Propo-goal. Co. is also engaged in designing new lottery games, including Bingo and Super 4. Co. distributes its games through an extensive on-line network of agents.
The Hellenic Exchanges is engaged in the following business sectors: trading, clearing, settlement, data feed, IT, exchange services, depository services, clearinghouse services, and other.
Hellenic Petroleum operates in the energy sector predominantly in Greece and the Balkans. Co.'s main activities include: refining and marketing of oil products ("R&M"); exploration, development and production, of hydrocarbons ("E&P"); manufacturing and marketing of petrochemical products; and power generation and trading. Refining, supply and trading are Co.'s core business and its main source of income and profit. Retail trading activities are split into domestic, comprising Co.'s Greek subsidiaries EKO and Hellenic Fuels, and International through local in-market retail subsidiary companies. Hydrocarbon exploration and production (E&P) Co. activities relate to Greece and abroad.
Hellenic Telecommunications Organization is a full-service telecommunications group. Co. provides local, long-distance and international fixed-line telecommunications services in Greece and Romania, and mobile telephony services through its Cosmote subsidiary in Greece, as well as in Albania, Bulgaria, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Romania. Co. also provides internet access services and Internet Protocol (IP) -based telecommunications applications, as well as information technology application development and hosting services using IP technologies. Also, Co. provides several other telecommunications services, including value-added services and public telephone services.
Holding Company ADMIE IPTO SA is a Greece-based company engaged in the electric utilities sector. The Company, through Power Transmission Operator SA, operates as a Transmission System Operator for the Hellenic Electricity Transmission System (Transmission System). The Company holds a concession for the Transmission System operation, maintenance and development. Its Transmission System mainly transmits electricity from Western Macedonia and consists of overhead, submarine and underground transmission lines.
Jumbo is a trading company based in Greece. Co.'s main operation is retail sale of toys, baby items, seasonal items, decoration items, books and stationery. A part of its operations is wholesale of toys and similar items to third parties. Co. and its subsidiaries have four geographical segments: Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and Romania. At June 30 2015, Co. operated 72 stores in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and in Romania and the on line store e-jumbo.
Lamda Development is a real estate development group based in Greece. Co.'s main activities comprise investment, development and maintenance of innovative real estate projects. Co. operates in Greece, as well as in other neighboring Balkan countries mainly Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro. Co.'s operations are organized along two business segments: Real Estate; and Marine Services. Co. is a subsidiary of Lamda Holdings.
Motor Oil Hellas Corinth Refineries operates in the oil sector with its main activities being oil refining and oil products trading. Due to its flexibility, Co. can process crude oils of various characteristics and produce a full range of petroleum products, complying with the most stringent International Specifications, serving major petroleum marketing companies in Greece and abroad. Apart from fuels, Co. is the only lubricants producer and packager in Greece. Base oils and finished lubricants produced, are approved by International Organizations, ACEA, API, the U.S. NAVY & ARMY.
Mytilineos Holdings is an industrial group engaged in the sectors of Metallurgy, EPC, Energy, and Defence. Co. and its subsidiaries are engaged in three main operating business segments: Metallurgy, Constructions and Energy. Co. and its subsidiaries monitor its performance on Metallurgy and Mining Sector through the subsidiaries Aluminium S.A. (Alumina-Aluminium) and Sometra S.A. (Zinc-Lead). Co., through its subsidiary, METKA S.A., is an EPC Constructor in Greece.
National Bank of Greece is a financial institution based in Greece. Co. maintains operations in the retail banking sector, with 509 branches and one premium banking branch, and 1,448 ATMs. Co. offers its customers a range of integrated financial services, including: corporate and investment banking; retail banking (including mortgage lending); leasing and factoring; stock brokerage and asset management; insurance; and real estate and consulting services. Co. is also involved in other businesses, including hotel and property management. Co. operates in Greece, U.K., South Eastern Europe which includes Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Serbia, as well as, in Cyprus, Malta, Egypt and South Africa.
Piraeus Bank is a banking institute. Co. and its subsidiaries provide services in the Southeastern Europe, Egypt, as well as Western European markets. Co. and its subsidiaries operate in four main business segments: Retail Banking, which includes the retail banking facilities; Corporate Banking, which includes facilities related to corporate banking; Investment Banking, which includes activities related to investment banking facilities of Co. and its subsidiaries, including investment and advisory services, underwriting services and public listings, and stock exchange services; and Asset Management and Treasury, which includes asset management facilities for clients.
Plaisio Computers SA. Plaisio Computers SA is a Greece-based company that assembles and trades personal computers (PCs), telecommunication and office Equipment. The Company has three main segments of operation, product categories, namely: Office products, PCs and Digital Technology products, as well as Telecommunications products. In addition the Company has two more segments, the provision of service for the PCs and the provision of transportation services, included in the category, Other. Its products are distributed through a network of stores in Greece and Bulgaria and through the distribution of catalogues, as well as electronic stores. The Company has one wholly owned subsidiary, Plaisio Computers JSC, in Bulgaria.
Public Power Corp. is a vertically intergrated electric utility engaged in electricity generation, transmission and distribution throughout Greece. At Dec 31 2014, Co. and its subsidiaries generated electricity in its own 62 power generating stations of Co. and from the additional stations which belong to its wholly owned subsidiary PPC Renewables S.A, facilitated the transmission of electricity through its own power lines of approximately 12,273 km and distributed electricity to consumers through its own distribution lines for Medium and Low voltage of 235,100 km which are managed by its wholly owned subsidiary Hellenic Distribution Network Operator (HEDNO S.A.) (Medium and Low voltage).
Quest Holdings SA. Quest Holdings SA, formerly Info-Quest SA, is a Greece-based information technology (IT) and telecommunication solutions provider. Its main activities include the digital technology industry, with activities across the entire spectrum of the ICT market, from the manufacture and distribution of products to the design, application and support of Integrated IT Solutions for large organizations in the private and public sectors. Quest Holdings coordinates its activities in this market via the strongest companies in the field: Info Quest Technologies, Uni Systems and iSquare. In the Green Energy sector, the Group implements large investment projects on electricity production from renewable sources with licensed power exceeding 400 MW regarding more than 30 wind and photovoltaic parks. In this market, Quest Holdings is active through Quest Energy and its subsidiaries. At the same time, the Group is also active in the Courier Services sector, through ACS.
Terna Energy is a vertically organized renewable energy sources group based in Greece. Co. is mainly engaged in the energy and construction sector. Co. is active in Wind Energy, as well as Hydroelectric Projects, Solar PV and Integrated Management of Waste to Energy and Biomass Projects. Co. is also engaged in the research for the operation and construction of projects related to other renewable energy sources (RES). Co. maintains a class 6 contractor certificate and its activity in the construction sector relates to the construction of private and public projects as a main contractor or subcontractor or through joint ventures.
Thrace Plastics Holding and Commercial SA Formerly known as Thrace Plastics Holding and Commercial Societe Anonyme. Thrace Plastics Holding and Commercial Societe Anonyme, formerly Thrace Plastics Co SA, is a Greece-based company engaged in the production and trade of plastic products, textiles and packaging materials. The Company's range of products are divided into three categories: Technical Fabrics & Fibers, which includes such products as woven and non-woven geotextiles, ground covers, crop covers, nets, roofing membranes, staple fibers, concrete reinforcement fibers, geogrids, Mega bag components and carpet and industrial yarns; Consumer Packaging, which offers plastic containers and lids, cups, tubs, bottles, bags for liquid packaging, as well as plastic packaging for food products, and Industrial Packaging, which includes ropes and twines, big bags, films, woven polypropylene bags, bags for heavy duty, pallet covers, and stretch hoods. The Company operates through its local and international subsidiaries.
Titan Cement Co. and, its subsidiaries (collectively, the Group) are engaged in the production, trade and distribution of a range of construction materials, including cement, concrete, aggregates, cement blocks, dry mortars and fly ash. The Group operates primarily in Greece, the Balkans, Egypt, Turkey and the U.S. The Group operates in 14 countries in Europe, North America and the Eastern Mediterranean and is organized in the following four operating (geographic) segments: Greece and Western Europe, North America, South East Europe, and Eastern Mediterranean.
Eurobank Equities is a Greek-based firm offering research, sales and trading services to institutional, corporate and private clients. The company is wholly owned by Eurobank, one of the 4 systemic banks in Greece.
Research is the backbone of Eurobank Equities' platform, with a team of 4 professionals committed to generating actionable investment ideas by providing timely research products. We are committed to offering value-added services to clients by filtering market noise and providing insights on the multiple sectors that we cover. Our universe includes 26 - large, medium and small cap - companies whose market capitalization amounts to 80-85% of the total market capitalization of the Athens Stock Exchange. Our research team also maintains the capacity to generate ad-hoc research for micro-cap listed companies.
Our team has consistently gained recognition among institutional investors for its quality research, having ranked No. 1 team in Greece at the Extel Surveys of 2013-2016 and 2018. We have also been named Leading Brokerage Firm in Greece over 2014-2016 and in 2018.
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