reports
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Riding the HALO rotation; thesis mainly yiel...
Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Riding the HALO rotation; thesis mainly yiel...
Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: Q4 in line, 7% distribution ...
Q4 in line, Q4 EBITDA +2.3%, FY25 +2%; acceleration to +3% in FY26 – Q4 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €351m, +2.3% yoy and broadly in sync with consensus. Some key metrics seem to have accelerated, with mobile very robust (service revenues +5.2% from +2.7% in Q3; pre-to-post migration, pricing), retail fixed improving to +2.6% from +1.3% in Q3 (FTTH uptake, 2-digit growth in Pay TV), and ICT growing strongly. This brought FY25 adj. EBITDAaL to €1,374m, in line with mgt guidance (+2% yoy) and market e...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: Q4 in line, 7% distribution ...
Q4 in line, Q4 EBITDA +2.3%, FY25 +2%; acceleration to +3% in FY26 – Q4 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €351m, +2.3% yoy and broadly in sync with consensus. Some key metrics seem to have accelerated, with mobile very robust (service revenues +5.2% from +2.7% in Q3; pre-to-post migration, pricing), retail fixed improving to +2.6% from +1.3% in Q3 (FTTH uptake, 2-digit growth in Pay TV), and ICT growing strongly. This brought FY25 adj. EBITDAaL to €1,374m, in line with mgt guidance (+2% yoy) and market e...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Credibility reset, core earnings power still intact
Profit warning to reset 2025e EBITDA to c€750mn – Metlen issued a profit warning last week, cutting its 2025 EBITDA outlook by c25% (to €750mn) reflecting cost overruns in its M Power Projects (MPP) division alongside timing slippage in closing 3 asset rotation transactions. On the MPP side, management flagged unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in select projects, with the Protos project acting as the initial catalyst, followed by the identification of additional overruns during the...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Credibility reset, core earnings power still intact
Profit warning to reset 2025e EBITDA to c€750mn – Metlen issued a profit warning last week, cutting its 2025 EBITDA outlook by c25% (to €750mn) reflecting cost overruns in its M Power Projects (MPP) division alongside timing slippage in closing 3 asset rotation transactions. On the MPP side, management flagged unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in select projects, with the Protos project acting as the initial catalyst, followed by the identification of additional overruns during the...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ADMIE HOLDING | Structure isn’t perfect, but the asset offers deep val...
Two-step capital increase emerging as most likely scenario – Initial policy signaling and our discussions with mgt in late 2025 suggested a simpler OpCo-level capital increase (of c€1bn), accompanied by a migration of the listing from ADMIE Holding to IPTO. This would have offered cleaner governance, improved liquidity and a more direct valuation anchor. Latest press reports, however, indicate a shift toward a two-step capital increase, starting with a c€510m rights issue at ADMIE Holding, follo...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ADMIE HOLDING | Structure isn’t perfect, but the asset offers deep val...
Two-step capital increase emerging as most likely scenario – Initial policy signalling and our discussions with mgt in late 2025 suggested a simpler OpCo-level capital increase (of c€1bn), accompanied by a migration of the listing from ADMIE Holding to IPTO. This would have offered cleaner governance, improved liquidity and a more direct valuation anchor. Latest press reports, however, indicate a shift toward a two-step capital increase, starting with a c€510m rights issue at ADMIE Holding, foll...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
JUMBO | Jumbonomics v2026: The anatomy of margins
Margins under scrutiny: competition capping upside rather than driving margin debasement – We have received a growing number of questions on whether Jumbo’s gross margin model is structurally at risk as competition intensifies, with Romania in focus following Action’s entry and against a broader backdrop of rising online price transparency. Competitive concerns, however, are not new. Similar fears surfaced in the early 2010s (Amazon threat), yet Jumbo has repeatedly confounded them, delivering g...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
JUMBO | Jumbonomics v2026: The anatomy of margins
Margins under scrutiny: competition capping upside rather than driving margin debasement – We have received a growing number of questions on whether Jumbo’s gross margin model is structurally at risk as competition intensifies, with Romania in focus following Action’s entry and against a broader backdrop of rising online price transparency. Competitive concerns, however, are not new. Similar fears surfaced in the early 2010s (Amazon threat), yet Jumbo has repeatedly confounded them, delivering g...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
Greek Equity Strategy – 2026 outlook | Less beta, more selectivity
Fundamentals taking over – Greek equities delivered an exceptional performance in 2025, emerging as one of the strongest markets globally, with the ASE General Index up c50%. This marked the 4th consecutive year of outperformance vs the Euro Stoxx 600, a streak not witnessed in the past two decades. The magnitude of the 2025 rally inevitably sets a high base heading into 2026 (especially since the ASE is already up c6% ytd). As a result, we believe the market will transition from a beta-driven p...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
Greek Equity Strategy – 2026 outlook | Less beta, more selectivity
Fundamentals taking over – Greek equities delivered an exceptional performance in 2025, emerging as one of the strongest markets globally, with the ASE General Index up c50%. This marked the 4th consecutive year of outperformance vs the Euro Stoxx 600, a streak not witnessed in the past two decades. The magnitude of the 2025 rally inevitably sets a high base heading into 2026 (especially since the ASE is already up c6% ytd). As a result, we believe the market will transition from a beta-driven p...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Real Consulting | Sharpening the Services edge, growth with margin acc...
Smart UX adds utilities expertise; we push through modest uplift to our numbers – Real Consulting acquired a 95% stake in Smart UX Development (Romania-based SAP Utilities VAR) in July 2025 for a total consideration of €2.74mn, comprising an upfront payment of c€1.7mn and deferred instalments through 2028, alongside a put/call option on the remaining 5% stake. We have updated our mid-term forecasts to reflect the Smart UX deal as well as improved performance in the core business, incorporating l...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Profile Software | Raising the Profile: Growth in High Gear
Algosystems enhances group outlook; acquisition sealed at attractive valuation – Profile signed an SPA in November to acquire 87.23% of Algosystems, a GR network engineering & cybersecurity company, for a consideration of €3-4mn, implying an attractive valuation of c3-4x EV/EBITDA for a business generating EBITDA €14m incremental revenue in 2026e, although we anticipate some margin dilution over 2026-27e given Algosystems’ low-2-digit EBITDA margin profile, before mgt progressively lifts margins...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Aegean Airlines | Holding Altitude Amid Turbulence
A turbulent 2025e – We have moderately lowered our 2025 revenue forecast to €1.84bn (up 3.8% yoy) and reduced our bottom-line estimate by c2% to €139mn (+7% yoy), while maintaining both our load factor (82.5%) and EBITDA forecast (€422mn, +4% yoy). These revisions capture the two-speed nature of 2025: robust H1 pricing and meaningful FX gains offset by Q3 softness and an anticipated Q4 pullback on a demanding comp base. At the same time, Aegean continues to push significant capacity growth into ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Aegean Airlines | Holding Altitude Amid Turbulence
A turbulent 2025e – We have moderately lowered our 2025 revenue forecast to €1.84bn (up 3.8% yoy) and reduced our bottom-line estimate by c2% to €139mn (+7% yoy), while maintaining both our load factor (82.5%) and EBITDA forecast (€422mn, +4% yoy). These revisions capture the two-speed nature of 2025: robust H1 pricing and meaningful FX gains offset by Q3 softness and an anticipated Q4 pullback on a demanding comp base. At the same time, Aegean continues to push significant capacity growth into ...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
PERFORMANCE TECHNOLOGIES | Full Performance Mode: From Projects to Pre...
Leading systems integrator with top-tier partnerships and strong local positioning – Performance Technologies is a leading systems integrator and IT services provider, designing and implementing digital transformation solutions across cloud, observability, ITSM/ESM, analytics, automation, cybersecurity and AI. The group delivers the full lifecycle of deployments (planning, customization, implementation, maintenance and managed SaaS/services) leveraging long-standing partnerships with top-tier te...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Dimand | Patience Required, Value Intact
Progress delivered in 2025, but at a more measured tempo than we had hoped – While initial guidance pointed to three exits within the year (Minion, EEDE Patissia and Piraeus Tower), only Minion seems on track for completion in 2025, with the remaining transactions shifting into 2026. H1’25 results also indicated a milder pace of construction progress than we had previously anticipated, as reflected in softer fair value gains, leading us to recalibrate our development phasing. At the same time th...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Kri-Kri | The taste of acceleration; when demand meets dynamo
Export engine accelerates; Buy – Following the 9M’25 and improved visibility on demand and pricing into 2026, our confidence in KRI’s growth trajectory has increased. We see international yogurt momentum, mainly in the UK and Italy (sales +63% and +21% in the 9M), reinforcing the export-led strategy, supported by expanding shelf presence and sustained demand for natural, high-protein products. With capacity set to ramp through 2027 (supporting c€500mn in sales by 2029e), KRI is positioned to tra...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Constructive but more selective
Broad earnings resilience, but no spark for upgrades… – Systemic Greek banks delivered results broadly in line with our estimates and consensus. NII momentum stabilised in 3Q (-0.2% q/q), effectively marking the trough after three consecutive quarters of deceleration, given Euribor’s plateauing. Fees posted a mild q/q decline—consistent with our forecasts—reflecting seasonal softness in payments and money transfers, while bancassurance and asset-management’s AuMs continued to expand at a strong ...
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