reports
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Papoutsanis | Bubbling Revenues, Softer Margins, Upside on Hold
Revenue gains offset by margins; stock fairly valued; Hold – Papoutsanis has stepped up its growth profile, with strategic priorities clearly anchored around branded portfolio expansion and deeper third-party partnerships. Following on from the H1’25 results, we have raised our 2025–27e revenue forecasts by c10–13%, reflecting the ramp-up of newly secured contracts, the scaling of existing ones, and deeper market penetration in branded products. However, this sales uplift is largely offset at th...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Sarantis | Margins climb, re-rating awaits
Double digit H1’25 profitability growth… – Sarantis group grew H1’25 EBIT by 18% yoy to €38m, despite the soft +1% top line growth (€304m), as a result of the strong mix improvement and the cost initiatives. Net profit increased by 20% to €29m. Importantly, the group’s export activity grew significantly in H1’25, with sales from exports rising to c€18m (+52% yoy) and exports’ EBIT more than doubling to c€7m, mainly reflecting the strong rollout of the group’s suncare products in the U.S market. ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Sarantis | Margins climb, re-rating awaits
Double digit H1’25 profitability growth… – Sarantis group grew H1’25 EBIT by 18% yoy to €38m, despite the soft +1% top line growth (€304m), as a result of the strong mix improvement and the cost initiatives. Net profit increased by 20% to €29m. Importantly, the group’s export activity grew significantly in H1’25, with sales from exports rising to c€18m (+52% yoy) and exports’ EBIT more than doubling to c€7m, mainly reflecting the strong rollout of the group’s suncare products in the U.S market. ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: Q2 in line, with more confidence for FY25 but i...
Q2 in line with c4-5% growth yoy, DPS €0.50 (EEe €0.60) – Q2’25 has settled broadly in sync with our expectations, with revenue and EBITDA growth decelerating to 5%/4% from c8% in Q2, owing to tough comps. With Joker having risen €18m yoy thanks to the jackpot rollovers (accounting for c2.4% group quarterly growth alone), we estimate other numerical games were -6% (cannibalized by Joker). Betting also turned negative at -2% from +13% in Q1 (tough comps), but this was more than offset by online c...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: Q2 in line, with more confidence for FY25 but i...
Q2 in line with c4-5% growth yoy, DPS €0.50 (EEe €0.60) – Q2’25 has settled broadly in sync with our expectations, with revenue and EBITDA growth decelerating to 5%/4% from c8% in Q2, owing to tough comps. With Joker having risen €18m yoy thanks to the jackpot rollovers (accounting for c2.4% group quarterly growth alone), we estimate other numerical games were -6% (cannibalized by Joker). Betting also turned negative at -2% from +13% in Q1 (tough comps), but this was more than offset by online c...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Coca-Cola Hellenic | Steady momentum, limited valuation upside
Solid H1’25 performance, in broad sync with expectations – CCH delivered a solid H1’25 performance, with comparable EBIT up 15% yoy (12% organic) despite continued macro and geopolitical headwinds. The result was driven by 2-digit organic growth in Emerging Markets, with all segments contributing to revenue growth, supported by strong pricing discipline and favorable mix effects (both pack and category). While higher A&P spend weighed on profitability in Established and Developing markets, gross...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Coca-Cola Hellenic | Steady momentum, limited valuation upside
Solid H1’25 performance, in broad sync with expectations – CCH delivered a solid H1’25 performance, with comparable EBIT up 15% yoy (12% organic) despite continued macro and geopolitical headwinds. The result was driven by 2-digit organic growth in Emerging Markets, with all segments contributing to revenue growth, supported by strong pricing discipline and favorable mix effects (both pack and category). While higher A&P spend weighed on profitability in Established and Developing markets, gross...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | Full House in 2025e, but 2026 is another question
The catalyst – Q2’25 results on 3rd Sep look poised to be a positive catalyst: although the numbers are not likely to impress (EE revenues/EBITDA +4% yoy, DPS €0.65) and mgt may abstain from raising the guidance, commentary on the Q3 outlook is likely to be upbeat, as indicated by latest data. This is because of another series of record jackpot rollovers, which have brought Q3 (to-date) Joker GGR >€40m yoy. This means that contrary to market expectations – which envisaged a c€25-30m headwind due...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | Full House in 2025e, but 2026 is another question
The catalyst – Q2’25 results on 3rd Sep look poised to be a positive catalyst: although the numbers are not likely to impress (EE revenues/EBITDA +4% yoy, DPS €0.65) and mgt may abstain from raising the guidance, commentary on the Q3 outlook is likely to be upbeat, as indicated by latest data. This is because of another series of record jackpot rollovers, which have brought Q3 (to-date) Joker GGR >€40m yoy. This means that contrary to market expectations – which envisaged a c€25-30m headwind due...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: tepid group Q2 weighed down ...
Q2 group EBITDAaL +0.6% yoy, a bit softer than expected due to Romania (RO); GR growth in sync with FY25 guidance – Q2 group adj. numbers look a tad below our forecasts, with the underlying pattern remaining largely unchanged: strong mobile (service rev. +3.2%), tepid but positive retail fixed (+0.6%), and RO weighing on group metrics (EBITDAaL loss €4.6m). Overall, group sales rose 0.3% yoy to €913m, with GR +1.1%. GR EBITDAaL advanced 2% to €333m, in sync with mgt FY guidance, while group EBIT...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: tepid group Q2 weighed down ...
Q2 group EBITDAaL +0.6% yoy, a bit softer than expected due to Romania (RO); GR growth in sync with FY25 guidance – Q2 group adj. numbers look a tad below our forecasts, with the underlying pattern remaining largely unchanged: strong mobile (service rev. +3.2%), tepid but positive retail fixed (+0.6%), and RO weighing on group metrics (EBITDAaL loss €4.6m). Overall, group sales rose 0.3% yoy to €913m, with GR +1.1%. GR EBITDAaL advanced 2% to €333m, in sync with mgt FY guidance, while group EBIT...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Dimand | Delivery Phase In, Mega Pipeline On
Making some headway, enjoying some respite – 2024 was a year of meaningful delivery for Dimand, marked by the successful monetisation of Insignio and Hub 26, which helped unlock capital to support the development pipeline. While exits from Minion, EEDE Patisia and Piraeus Tower slipped into 2025, the closing of the Skyline transaction and the significant rebound in financial performance—2024 EBITDA rose to €58m from €19m—underscored growing operational momentum. From a market perspective, the pr...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Thrace Plastics | Positioned for demand bounce back Vol 2
2024: Margin pressure in a tough year – In a year characterized by sustained demand headwinds and rising costs pressure, Thrace EBITDA was weighed down by category/product mix, despite the 7% yoy increase in the top line. Adj. EBITDA was down by 4% yoy to €42.3m in 2024, while group turnover advanced to €370m driven by strong volume growth (+10% yoy). 2024 PBT shaped at €13.7m, down vs adj. EBT of €20.2m in 2023, weighed by one-off costs and elevated depreciation charges. As a result, net profit...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
Athens Exchange | Navigating the dual catalyst: M&A optionality meets ...
Athex rerated YTD, but still room to go – Following a sluggish 2024 (-15%), ATHEX shares have rallied c60% in 2025, fuelled by: i) rising trading intensity (ADV >40% y/y at c€200mn ytd), ii) firming conviction in Greece’s DM reclassification (FTSE & Stoxx reviews in sight), and iii) an M&A premium after Euronext confirmed discussions for a potential tender offer. Although the shares have re-rated meaningfully (i.e c20%) following the Euronext news, we believe there is further upside as: (i) EXAE...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
Athens Exchange | Navigating the dual catalyst: M&A optionality meets ...
Athex rerated YTD, but still room to go – Following a sluggish 2024 (-15%), ATHEX shares have rallied c60% in 2025, fuelled by: i) rising trading intensity (ADV >40% y/y at c€200mn ytd), ii) firming conviction in Greece’s DM reclassification (FTSE & Stoxx reviews in sight), and iii) an M&A premium after Euronext confirmed discussions for a potential tender offer. Although the shares have re-rated meaningfully (i.e c20%) following the Euronext news, we believe there is further upside as: (i) EXAE...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Fourlis | Clearer story, cheaper stock
New narrative, old skepticism – Following the deconsolidation of Trade Estates, Fourlis now presents a cleaner equity narrative, with the spotlight firmly on the core retail portfolio. However, the deconsolidation seems to have offered limited respite to the shares, which have materially underperformed both foreign peers and Greek non-fins over the past 24 months, reflecting subdued investor appetite, notwithstanding encouraging (albeit not impressive) operational delivery. Weighing on sentiment...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Fourlis | Clearer story, cheaper stock
New narrative, old skepticism – Following the deconsolidation of Trade Estates, Fourlis now presents a cleaner equity narrative, with the spotlight firmly on the core retail portfolio. However, the deconsolidation seems to have offered limited respite to the shares, which have materially underperformed both foreign peers and Greek non-fins over the past 24 months, reflecting subdued investor appetite, notwithstanding encouraging (albeit not impressive) operational delivery. Weighing on sentiment...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Greek Refineries (HelleniQ Energy – Motor Oil) | Margins stronger for ...
Robust H1 builds promise for the rest of the year – Following a muted – in terms of share performance – 2024, held back by sector-wide headwinds (retreating refining margins) and company-specific challenges (fire incident and MSCI exclusion in MOH’s case), Greek refineries have rebounded ytd (Total return: MOH +23%, ELPE +14%), supported by recovering margins and strong operational resilience, with prospects also looking promising for H2’25 given easy comps. Meanwhile, both companies have built ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Greek Refineries (HelleniQ Energy – Motor Oil) | Margins stronger for ...
Robust H1 builds promise for the rest of the year – Following a muted – in terms of share performance – 2024, held back by sector-wide headwinds (retreating refining margins) and company-specific challenges (fire incident and MSCI exclusion in MOH’s case), Greek refineries have rebounded ytd (Total return: MOH +23%, ELPE +14%), supported by recovering margins and strong operational resilience, with prospects also looking promising for H2’25 given easy comps. Meanwhile, both companies have built ...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Noval Property | Smart Land, Light Debt, Long Runway, 2-digit total re...
High yield, diversified portfolio with green flavor – Noval Property (NP) is Greece's 3rd largest REIC with a current GAV of €648m, comprising 61 assets (of which 31 income-producing). Annualized rental income stands at c€34m, translating to c7.3% yield (on income-generating assets). Noval has a well-balanced sector exposure across office buildings (c28% of rental income), retail (c50%), hospitality (c10%), industrial/logistics (c8%), while its properties boast top-notch tenants and high occupan...
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