reports
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (AIA) | Bond proxy with a twist
FY25: the cap in action… – FY25 results neatly illustrated the core mechanics of the model. Passenger traffic rose by a robust 7%, yet total revenues increased by just 2%. The reason is structural, since aviation returns are capped at the 15% regulatory ROE, with only a limited carry-forward balance left to utilize during 2025 (c€20m). As volumes strengthened, aeronautical unit revenues adjusted downward for AIA to remain within the cap, diluting operating leverage. At the same time, non-air uni...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (AIA) | Bond proxy with a twist
FY25: the cap in action… – FY25 results neatly illustrated the core mechanics of the model. Passenger traffic rose by a robust 7%, yet total revenues increased by just 2%. The reason is structural, since aviation returns are capped at the 15% regulatory ROE, with only a limited carry-forward balance left to utilize during 2025 (c€20m). As volumes strengthened, aeronautical unit revenues adjusted downward for AIA to remain within the cap, diluting operating leverage. At the same time, non-air uni...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Sarantis | Premium shift; value unfolding
Margin expansion remains key driver… – Sarantis’ medium-term guidance anchors the investment case, with management targeting EBITDA of €120m by 2028, implying sustained profitability growth from current levels (+10.5% CAGR). Underpinning this is a structurally improving product mix across both categories and geographies, with exports and premiumized product lines gaining traction. In our view, the combination of mix enhancement and operating leverage provides strong visibility on further margin ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Sarantis | Premium shift; value unfolding
Margin expansion remains key driver… – Sarantis’ medium-term guidance anchors the investment case, with management targeting EBITDA of €120m by 2028, implying sustained profitability growth from current levels (+10.5% CAGR). Underpinning this is a structurally improving product mix across both categories and geographies, with exports and premiumized product lines gaining traction. In our view, the combination of mix enhancement and operating leverage provides strong visibility on further margin ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy | Energy Shock Playbook
Energy shock scenario – The prolonged Middle East conflict has tightened the oil market, while elevating shipping and insurance risk premia. Brent has moved decisively above $100/bbl amid conflict-related disruption to production and tanker movements. The risk is acute because the Strait of Hormuz is a structural bottleneck for global energy flows, with oil flows through the strait accounting for c20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Against this backdrop, we frame the potential implicat...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy | Energy Shock Playbook
Energy shock scenario – The prolonged Middle East conflict has tightened the oil market, while elevating shipping and insurance risk premia. Brent has moved decisively above $100/bbl amid conflict-related disruption to production and tanker movements. The risk is acute because the Strait of Hormuz is a structural bottleneck for global energy flows, with oil flows through the strait accounting for c20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Against this backdrop, we frame the potential implicat...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Riding the HALO rotation; thesis mainly yiel...
Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Riding the HALO rotation; thesis mainly yiel...
Profit acceleration in 2026 on mobile strength and self-help – Following an in-line FY25 with EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, mgt has guided for c3% growth in 2026. Momentum rests on two pillars: resilient mobile (pre-to-post migration, “more-for-more” pricing and CPI indexation; we model c+3%) and targeted efficiency across network and customer care, increasingly AI-enabled, alongside flat energy costs and personnel savings. By contrast, retail fixed is likely to stay subdued; we cap growth at c1%, as comp...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: Q4 in line, 7% distribution ...
Q4 in line, Q4 EBITDA +2.3%, FY25 +2%; acceleration to +3% in FY26 – Q4 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €351m, +2.3% yoy and broadly in sync with consensus. Some key metrics seem to have accelerated, with mobile very robust (service revenues +5.2% from +2.7% in Q3; pre-to-post migration, pricing), retail fixed improving to +2.6% from +1.3% in Q3 (FTTH uptake, 2-digit growth in Pay TV), and ICT growing strongly. This brought FY25 adj. EBITDAaL to €1,374m, in line with mgt guidance (+2% yoy) and market e...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: Q4 in line, 7% distribution ...
Q4 in line, Q4 EBITDA +2.3%, FY25 +2%; acceleration to +3% in FY26 – Q4 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €351m, +2.3% yoy and broadly in sync with consensus. Some key metrics seem to have accelerated, with mobile very robust (service revenues +5.2% from +2.7% in Q3; pre-to-post migration, pricing), retail fixed improving to +2.6% from +1.3% in Q3 (FTTH uptake, 2-digit growth in Pay TV), and ICT growing strongly. This brought FY25 adj. EBITDAaL to €1,374m, in line with mgt guidance (+2% yoy) and market e...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Credibility reset, core earnings power still intact
Profit warning to reset 2025e EBITDA to c€750mn – Metlen issued a profit warning last week, cutting its 2025 EBITDA outlook by c25% (to €750mn) reflecting cost overruns in its M Power Projects (MPP) division alongside timing slippage in closing 3 asset rotation transactions. On the MPP side, management flagged unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in select projects, with the Protos project acting as the initial catalyst, followed by the identification of additional overruns during the...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Credibility reset, core earnings power still intact
Profit warning to reset 2025e EBITDA to c€750mn – Metlen issued a profit warning last week, cutting its 2025 EBITDA outlook by c25% (to €750mn) reflecting cost overruns in its M Power Projects (MPP) division alongside timing slippage in closing 3 asset rotation transactions. On the MPP side, management flagged unanticipated cost overruns and schedule delays in select projects, with the Protos project acting as the initial catalyst, followed by the identification of additional overruns during the...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ADMIE HOLDING | Structure isn’t perfect, but the asset offers deep val...
Two-step capital increase emerging as most likely scenario – Initial policy signaling and our discussions with mgt in late 2025 suggested a simpler OpCo-level capital increase (of c€1bn), accompanied by a migration of the listing from ADMIE Holding to IPTO. This would have offered cleaner governance, improved liquidity and a more direct valuation anchor. Latest press reports, however, indicate a shift toward a two-step capital increase, starting with a c€510m rights issue at ADMIE Holding, follo...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ADMIE HOLDING | Structure isn’t perfect, but the asset offers deep val...
Two-step capital increase emerging as most likely scenario – Initial policy signalling and our discussions with mgt in late 2025 suggested a simpler OpCo-level capital increase (of c€1bn), accompanied by a migration of the listing from ADMIE Holding to IPTO. This would have offered cleaner governance, improved liquidity and a more direct valuation anchor. Latest press reports, however, indicate a shift toward a two-step capital increase, starting with a c€510m rights issue at ADMIE Holding, foll...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
JUMBO | Jumbonomics v2026: The anatomy of margins
Margins under scrutiny: competition capping upside rather than driving margin debasement – We have received a growing number of questions on whether Jumbo’s gross margin model is structurally at risk as competition intensifies, with Romania in focus following Action’s entry and against a broader backdrop of rising online price transparency. Competitive concerns, however, are not new. Similar fears surfaced in the early 2010s (Amazon threat), yet Jumbo has repeatedly confounded them, delivering g...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
JUMBO | Jumbonomics v2026: The anatomy of margins
Margins under scrutiny: competition capping upside rather than driving margin debasement – We have received a growing number of questions on whether Jumbo’s gross margin model is structurally at risk as competition intensifies, with Romania in focus following Action’s entry and against a broader backdrop of rising online price transparency. Competitive concerns, however, are not new. Similar fears surfaced in the early 2010s (Amazon threat), yet Jumbo has repeatedly confounded them, delivering g...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
Greek Equity Strategy – 2026 outlook | Less beta, more selectivity
Fundamentals taking over – Greek equities delivered an exceptional performance in 2025, emerging as one of the strongest markets globally, with the ASE General Index up c50%. This marked the 4th consecutive year of outperformance vs the Euro Stoxx 600, a streak not witnessed in the past two decades. The magnitude of the 2025 rally inevitably sets a high base heading into 2026 (especially since the ASE is already up c6% ytd). As a result, we believe the market will transition from a beta-driven p...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
Greek Equity Strategy – 2026 outlook | Less beta, more selectivity
Fundamentals taking over – Greek equities delivered an exceptional performance in 2025, emerging as one of the strongest markets globally, with the ASE General Index up c50%. This marked the 4th consecutive year of outperformance vs the Euro Stoxx 600, a streak not witnessed in the past two decades. The magnitude of the 2025 rally inevitably sets a high base heading into 2026 (especially since the ASE is already up c6% ytd). As a result, we believe the market will transition from a beta-driven p...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Real Consulting | Sharpening the Services edge, growth with margin acc...
Smart UX adds utilities expertise; we push through modest uplift to our numbers – Real Consulting acquired a 95% stake in Smart UX Development (Romania-based SAP Utilities VAR) in July 2025 for a total consideration of €2.74mn, comprising an upfront payment of c€1.7mn and deferred instalments through 2028, alongside a put/call option on the remaining 5% stake. We have updated our mid-term forecasts to reflect the Smart UX deal as well as improved performance in the core business, incorporating l...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Profile Software | Raising the Profile: Growth in High Gear
Algosystems enhances group outlook; acquisition sealed at attractive valuation – Profile signed an SPA in November to acquire 87.23% of Algosystems, a GR network engineering & cybersecurity company, for a consideration of €3-4mn, implying an attractive valuation of c3-4x EV/EBITDA for a business generating EBITDA €14m incremental revenue in 2026e, although we anticipate some margin dilution over 2026-27e given Algosystems’ low-2-digit EBITDA margin profile, before mgt progressively lifts margins...
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