reports
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Jumbo | Jumbonomics v2025: from soft landing to margin tailwinds
FY24 as resilient as could be given multiple headwinds… – 2024 left us with mixed feelings, with Jumbo delivering just 4% adj. EBITDA and c3% adj. EPS growth on 6.3% sales growth, due to mild gross margin compression and cost deleveraging from new capacity (c0.7pps increase in opex/sales). That said, the actual performance eclipsed the overly cautious message echoed by mgt last summer (flat net income), validating the resilience of the business model. FCF was weaker than our expectation due to ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Jumbo | Jumbonomics v2025: from soft landing to margin tailwinds
FY24 as resilient as could be given multiple headwinds… – 2024 left us with mixed feelings, with Jumbo delivering just 4% adj. EBITDA and c3% adj. EPS growth on 6.3% sales growth, due to mild gross margin compression and cost deleveraging from new capacity (c0.7pps increase in opex/sales). That said, the actual performance eclipsed the overly cautious message echoed by mgt last summer (flat net income), validating the resilience of the business model. FCF was weaker than our expectation due to ...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Kri-Kri | Spoon by spoon into the world
Yogurt momentum in UK and Italy increase our confidence in the growth profile; Buy – Kri-Kri’s strategic focus on international markets continues to deliver, with robust demand for authentic Greek yogurt, particularly in the UK and Italy. Category growth remains particularly strong, with volumes up >40% in the UK and c20% in Italy in 2024, supported by consumer demand for natural products aligned with health and wellness trends, a momentum we expect to persist in 2025. With the ability to scale ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Coca-Cola Hellenic | Momentum intact but re-rating room narrowing
Sweet 2025 outlook – CCH entered 2025 with strong momentum, backed by strong execution and encouraging signals from Russia/Ukraine negotiations. Mgt is guiding for +7–11% organic EBIT growth in 2025e, underpinned by +6–8% organic sales growth, driven by disciplined pricing and tight cost control. CCH is c60% hedged on 2025 raw material needs, with COGS/case inflation expected in the low-to-mid single digits. … building on a strong 2024 – 2024 delivered another strong performance, with organic...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Coca-Cola Hellenic | Momentum intact but re-rating room narrowing
Sweet 2025 outlook – CCH entered 2025 with strong momentum, backed by strong execution and encouraging signals from Russia/Ukraine negotiations. Mgt is guiding for +7–11% organic EBIT growth in 2025e, underpinned by +6–8% organic sales growth, driven by disciplined pricing and tight cost control. CCH is c60% hedged on 2025 raw material needs, with COGS/case inflation expected in the low-to-mid single digits. … building on a strong 2024 – 2024 delivered another strong performance, with organic...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
TITAN CEMENT | Leader of the Pack
Outperformer on all ends… – Titan has emerged as an all-around outperformer in recent years, leading its global peer group in EBITDA growth (28% 3Y CAGR), and ranking among the top performers in terms of share price (>150% 2Y return). Its strategic presence in regions with strong underlying fundamentals has positioned Titan among the few players to achieve volume growth since 2022, while disciplined cost control and high-return capex have driven a sector-leading 7pps margin expansion. Despite i...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
TITAN CEMENT | Leader of the Pack
Outperformer on all ends… – Titan has emerged as an all-around outperformer in recent years, leading its global peer group in EBITDA growth (28% 3Y CAGR), and ranking among the top performers in terms of share price (>150% 2Y return). Its strategic presence in regions with strong underlying fundamentals has positioned Titan among the few players to achieve volume growth since 2022, while disciplined cost control and high-return capex have driven a sector-leading 7pps margin expansion. Despite i...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Profile Software | Momentum fueled by improved execution, product upta...
LSS step-up in H2’24 reinforces our view on the revenue path; continued FS mix optimization supports our Buy – We reiterate our Buy on Profile following on from its FY’24 results, which confirmed our expectations for accelerated top line and improved mix. Our key takeaways from results were that: a) PROF managed to deliver on its LSS top line guidance (at €18.1m, +95% yoy) reinforcing our view that execution is becoming more linear; and b) EBITDA margins came in at 25.8% (+1.5pps yoy) despite th...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Papoutsanis | Steady in the suds; efficiency flows through
Turning efficiency into growth; Buy – With its strategic priorities now firmly aligned around branded product growth, PAP is working to further improve profitability and reduce reliance on the more volatile 3 rd -party segment. Following a softer-than[1]expected top line in 2024, we have trimmed our 2025-27e sales by 3-4%, but still expect 2-digit revenue growth in 2025e, driven by branded momentum and an expanding 3- party client base. Margins continue to benefit from the recently completed inv...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Sarantis | Firing on all cylinders, with margins shifting up a gear
Delivering on FY’24 targets… – Sarantis delivered a solid performance in FY’24, with sales up 24% to €600m and EBIT rising 30% to €61m. Organic EBIT growth reached 14.7%, driven by a better product mix and efficiency gains. International sales surged 31%, supported by the Stella Pack acquisition (+15% uplift), while Greece saw a 10% increase. Net profit grew 17% to €46m, slightly below expectations due to one-off financial costs. Importantly, Sarantis beat guidance on most metrics and demonstrat...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Sarantis | Firing on all cylinders, with margins shifting up a gear
Delivering on FY’24 targets… – Sarantis delivered a solid performance in FY’24, with sales up 24% to €600m and EBIT rising 30% to €61m. Organic EBIT growth reached 14.7%, driven by a better product mix and efficiency gains. International sales surged 31%, supported by the Stella Pack acquisition (+15% uplift), while Greece saw a 10% increase. Net profit grew 17% to €46m, slightly below expectations due to one-off financial costs. Importantly, Sarantis beat guidance on most metrics and demonstrat...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
METLEN Energy & Metals | London calling, with €2bn EBITDA in sight; To...
Capital Markets Day in April to set the tone… – Following another year of sequentially improved results, with FY’24 EBITDA reaching €1.08bn (+8% yoy), 2025 looks poised to be a pivotal year for Metlen, with major announcements expected at the CMD on 28th April, ahead of its planned LSE listing in early Q3’25. During the event, mgmt will unveil the updated 2025-2028 strategy and outline the organic drivers that will lead to the ambitious €2bn EBITDA implied target by 2028 (CAGR: 17%). The above, ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
METLEN Energy & Metals | London calling, with €2bn EBITDA in sight; To...
Capital Markets Day in April to set the tone… – Following another year of sequentially improved results, with FY’24 EBITDA reaching €1.08bn (+8% yoy), 2025 looks poised to be a pivotal year for Metlen, with major announcements expected at the CMD on 28th April, ahead of its planned LSE listing in early Q3’25. During the event, mgmt will unveil the updated 2025-2028 strategy and outline the organic drivers that will lead to the ambitious €2bn EBITDA implied target by 2028 (CAGR: 17%). The above, ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Rallying with Room to Run
Strong finish to the year, with robust loan growth and earnings resilience – Greek banks delivered another solid quarter in Q4, exceeding both our and consensus estimates, supported by stronger-than-expected fee income (+4% vs cons) and lower impairments (-5% vs cons). Despite ongoing NII headwinds, NIM proved resilient at 2.65%, contracting just 15bps qoq—on faster loan repricing relative to deposits, a low deposit beta (20% on total deposits), stable lending spreads (-18bps ytd), incremental b...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Rallying with Room to Run
Strong finish to the year, with robust loan growth and earnings resilience – Greek banks delivered another solid quarter in Q4, exceeding both our and consensus estimates, supported by stronger-than-expected fee income (+4% vs cons) and lower impairments (-5% vs cons). Despite ongoing NII headwinds, NIM proved resilient at 2.65%, contracting just 15bps qoq—on faster loan repricing relative to deposits, a low deposit beta (20% on total deposits), stable lending spreads (-18bps ytd), incremental b...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (AIA) | Fresh impetus to the thesis but r...
Higher 2024 return, accelerated expansion plan… – AIA’s FY’24 results eclipsed estimates mainly driven by the faster depletion of the carry-forward balance (which is non-recurring in nature) and better-than envisaged unit commercial revenues. The key development though was the announcement for the acceleration of the expansion plan (merger of the 33-40MAP capex phases with an accelerated pax target timeline) partly funded by a scrip dividend (€240m over 4 years). The latter will have 3 key conse...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (AIA) | Fresh impetus to the thesis but r...
Higher 2024 return, accelerated expansion plan… – AIA’s FY’24 results eclipsed estimates mainly driven by the faster depletion of the carry-forward balance (which is non-recurring in nature) and better-than envisaged unit commercial revenues. The key development though was the announcement for the acceleration of the expansion plan (merger of the 33-40MAP capex phases with an accelerated pax target timeline) partly funded by a scrip dividend (€240m over 4 years). The latter will have 3 key conse...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | Cashing in, moving to Hold
Strong play, but limited new aces up its sleeve, for now – OPAP shares have had a robust start to 2025 returning c11% ytd, fueled by a strong H2’24 operational performance driven by both recurring (strong online/sports betting trends) and non-recurring (e.g. jackpot rollovers) factors. Although the better execution is set to lead FY24 EBITDA c2% above our previous projection and >4% above the upper end of mgt expectations (€750-770m guided range), it also sets a high bar for 2025. The year does ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | Cashing in, moving to Hold
Strong play, but limited new aces up its sleeve, for now – OPAP shares have had a robust start to 2025 returning c11% ytd, fueled by a strong H2’24 operational performance driven by both recurring (strong online/sports betting trends) and non-recurring (e.g. jackpot rollovers) factors. Although the better execution is set to lead FY24 EBITDA c2% above our previous projection and >4% above the upper end of mgt expectations (€750-770m guided range), it also sets a high bar for 2025. The year does ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
Optima Bank | Optimal Growth: Gaining Market Share with Superior RoTE
A clean balance sheet with best-in-class returns – Optima bank is one of the non-systemic Greek banks established in 2019 following the acquisition of Investment Bank of Greece (IBG) by a subsidiary of Motor Oil. It is a unique case among Greek banks given that it has a clean balance sheet (NPE ratio 100%) and a lean and flexible business model (with cost/income c22% in 9M’24, set to remain flattish throughout 2025-27e). Key to the investment thesis is the bank’s very high return on equity, with...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.