reports
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
JUMBO | Patience you must have
Another record year; on track for c10% EBIT growth in 2024 – Jumbo delivered 20% EBIT growth in FY23 thanks to 14% higher sales, resilient gross margins (-15bps yoy, albeit >3pps higher than 2019 levels) and opex savings (opex just +6% yoy). Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 22%, eclipsing the +20% embedded in our estimates a year ago. Mgt proposed another generous €1 DPS following the €0.6 paid in March, adding up to c6% yi...
- Natalia Svyriadi
QUEST HOLDINGS | Tech fuelling growth
Strong 2023 execution – Quest reported a solid set of 2023 results, with both sales and EBITDA up 16% yoy, driven by better-than-expected top line in commercial activities and IT services, which filtered through to the EBITDA lines. As a result, Quest saw its EBITDA margin unchanged at 7% in 2023. The bottom-line figures were slightly impacted by elevated net financials and an unfavourable base effect (extraordinary gains in 2022), leading net profit to increase by 8.2% yoy at €44.8m in 2023. ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
JUMBO | Patience you must have
Another record year; on track for c10% EBIT growth in 2024 – Jumbo delivered 20% EBIT growth in FY23 thanks to 14% higher sales, resilient gross margins (-15bps yoy, albeit >3pps higher than 2019 levels) and opex savings (opex just +6% yoy). Coupled with net financial income given the debt-free balance sheet, Jumbo grew net profits by a whopping 22%, eclipsing the +20% embedded in our estimates a year ago. Mgt proposed another generous €1 DPS following the €0.6 paid in March, adding up to c6% yi...
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
MOTODYNAMICS | In growth gear
Leading auto/moto company in Greece diversified across segments – Motodynamics operates as the distributor for Yamaha in Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania, and for Porsche in Greece. It also holds the franchise for SIXT rent-a-car (RaC) in Greece and engages in the sale of used cars. Motodynamics’s diverse portfolio allows for both year-round revenue streams and seasonal income, thus positioning the group advantageously to capitalize on the positive domestic macro prospects (affecting all segments),...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
MYTILINEOS Energy & Metals | More than just a deal, more than 10% grow...
Stellar delivery, bulletproof growth, and more catalysts ahead… – Over the past two years Mytilineos has reported impressive results, leveraging synergies arising from the vertically integrated model. Following outstanding delivery to the ambitious FY’23 EBITDA target of €1bn (+23% yoy), we still see ample room for growth, now estimating FY’24 EBITDA of €1.14bn (+13% yoy) and a 3-year EBITDA CAGR of 10%, driven by a step-up in Renewables and solid growth Metals. Moreover, we view the value-accre...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
MYTILINEOS Energy & Metals | More than just a deal, more than 10% grow...
Stellar delivery, bulletproof growth, and more catalysts ahead… – Over the past two years Mytilineos has reported impressive results, leveraging synergies arising from the vertically integrated model. Following outstanding delivery to the ambitious FY’23 EBITDA target of €1bn (+23% yoy), we still see ample room for growth, now estimating FY’24 EBITDA of €1.14bn (+13% yoy) and a 3-year EBITDA CAGR of 10%, driven by a step-up in Renewables and solid growth Metals. Moreover, we view the value-accre...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Titan Cement | Growth cast in concrete
Profitability step-up confirmed; where do we go now? – Titan Cement reported FY’23 EBITDA of €540mn, delivering 63% yoy growth on the back of 3.5% volume growth, double-digit pricing and c7pps margin expansion. With FY’23 EPS at €3.4, Titan has effectively beaten its FY’26 target three years earlier, rendering the communicated business plan obsolete. Going forward, mgmt echoed a positive outlook but refrained from updating the guidance, something we believe reflects more management conservatism ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Titan Cement | Growth cast in concrete
Profitability step-up confirmed; where do we go now? – Titan Cement reported FY’23 EBITDA of €540mn, delivering 63% yoy growth on the back of 3.5% volume growth, double-digit pricing and c7pps margin expansion. With FY’23 EPS at €3.4, Titan has effectively beaten its FY’26 target three years earlier, rendering the communicated business plan obsolete. Going forward, mgmt echoed a positive outlook but refrained from updating the guidance, something we believe reflects more management conservatism ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | More measured growth, but still betting on a safe ace
Firstly, how to value OPAP – Being a business operating limited-life concessions, OPAP is far more complicated to value than most investors realize. In fact, one can argue that as concession expiration approaches, the shares ought to incorporate a lower valuation reflecting the reduced time life of the respective concessions. On the other hand, we also note that some of the provisions embedded in certain concessions act as effective barriers to entry, attributing to these licences going-concern ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | More measured growth, but still betting on a safe ace
Firstly, how to value OPAP – Being a business operating limited-life concessions, OPAP is far more complicated to value than most investors realize. In fact, one can argue that as concession expiration approaches, the shares ought to incorporate a lower valuation reflecting the reduced time life of the respective concessions. On the other hand, we also note that some of the provisions embedded in certain concessions act as effective barriers to entry, attributing to these licences going-concern ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Sarantis | Glowing growth, margin inflection; Buy
Solid Guidance, confident message, strong Buy – Sarantis mgt laid out a solid growth trajectory, guiding for c12% organic EBIT CAGR in the 2024-28e period following +30% growth in 2024e (of which 14% organic). Driving this material profit uplift will be strong organic top line growth (5-7%) underpinned by the focus on value-accretive “hero” products, SKU rationalization, organizational improvements and further streamlining of costs. Overall, Sarantis looks headed for EBIT near €76-77m by 2026e, ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Sarantis | Glowing growth, margin inflection; Buy
Solid Guidance, confident message, strong Buy – Sarantis mgt laid out a solid growth trajectory, guiding for c12% organic EBIT CAGR in the 2024-28e period following +30% growth in 2024e (of which 14% organic). Driving this material profit uplift will be strong organic top line growth (5-7%) underpinned by the focus on value-accretive “hero” products, SKU rationalization, organizational improvements and further streamlining of costs. Overall, Sarantis looks headed for EBIT near €76-77m by 2026e, ...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Entersoft | Corporate action catalyzes value crystallization; move to ...
Lower rating to Hold on valuation – Recent corporate action has catalyzed a faster - than our expectations - rerating of the stock, with the shares up 14% since the Olympia bid was first reported by the press. With the stock trading very close to our PT and at the Olympia bid level, the story has largely run its course, so we lower our rating to a Hold on valuation grounds. Heading for mandatory tender offer… – Entersoft’s main shareholders reached on March 2nd, 2024, an agreement for the sale ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: Healthy finish to the year as expected; cash re...
Q4 revenues back to growth; FY23 recurring EBITDA flattish yoy at €744.9m, above the latest guidance, in sync with our estimates – Following a rather subdued Q3 due to adverse sporting results, the situation reversed in Q4’23 as we had suspected, with sportsbook margins normalizing (as echoed by other bookmakers), thus underpinning a return to positive top line growth (Q4 GGR +7.5% at €581m, with retail +2% and online +25%). The increase in the top line (to an all-time record) was more than offs...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: Healthy finish to the year as expected; cash re...
Q4 revenues back to growth; FY23 recurring EBITDA flattish yoy at €744.9m, above the latest guidance, in sync with our estimates – Following a rather subdued Q3 due to adverse sporting results, the situation reversed in Q4’23 as we had suspected, with sportsbook margins normalizing (as echoed by other bookmakers), thus underpinning a return to positive top line growth (Q4 GGR +7.5% at €581m, with retail +2% and online +25%). The increase in the top line (to an all-time record) was more than offs...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Coca-Cola Hellenic | Charting growth ahead through operational excelle...
Solid 2023 execution – CCH delivered a strong set of results, with 2023 numbers landing above the upper end of mgt guidance and consensus forecasts, thanks to solid operational execution. The company enjoyed stronger than anticipated operating leverage managing to expand adj. EBIT margins by 50bps (to 10.6%) despite the multiple challenges (affordability pressures, Nigeria cash crisis). This came as a result of the significant price/mix growth (+19pps yoy and c2pps above consensus) and healthy v...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Coca-Cola Hellenic | Charting growth ahead through operational excelle...
Solid 2023 execution – CCH delivered a strong set of results, with 2023 numbers landing above the upper end of mgt guidance and consensus forecasts, thanks to solid operational execution. The company enjoyed stronger than anticipated operating leverage managing to expand adj. EBIT margins by 50bps (to 10.6%) despite the multiple challenges (affordability pressures, Nigeria cash crisis). This came as a result of the significant price/mix growth (+19pps yoy and c2pps above consensus) and healthy v...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
PAPOUTSANIS | Lathering towards growth
Among the largest soap manufacturers in Europe; vertical integration & expanding geographic footprint – Papoutsanis (PAP) is one of the largest soap manufacturers in Europe (and the sole in Greece), operating across four product segments, namely Own brands, Hotel amenities, Private label/Third party and Soap noodles. The company is diversified geographically generating >55% of sales abroad (mostly in Europe). The business model is based on the offering of high-quality, natural ingredient-based p...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Larger, greener, stronger
New Strategic Plan accelerates green growth… – PPC’s updated Strategic Plan outlines the path to the company becoming a leading green integrated supplier in the SEE. Through the announced €9bn capex plan, management targets €2.3bn EBITDA by 2026e (15% 3-year CAGR vs PF 2023e EBITDA of €1.5bn), RES installed capacity of 5.5GW and full delignitisation. Despite the stock’s c35% rally over 5 months, we stress that there is far more upside, arguing that the current valuation does not capture the evol...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | Larger, greener, stronger
New Strategic Plan accelerates green growth… – PPC’s updated Strategic Plan outlines the path to the company becoming a leading green integrated supplier in the SEE. Through the announced €9bn capex plan, management targets €2.3bn EBITDA by 2026e (15% 3-year CAGR vs PF 2023e EBITDA of €1.5bn), RES installed capacity of 5.5GW and full delignitisation. Despite the stock’s c35% rally over 5 months, we stress that there is far more upside, arguing that the current valuation does not capture the evol...
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