reports
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (AIA) | Fresh impetus to the thesis but r...
Higher 2024 return, accelerated expansion plan… – AIA’s FY’24 results eclipsed estimates mainly driven by the faster depletion of the carry-forward balance (which is non-recurring in nature) and better-than envisaged unit commercial revenues. The key development though was the announcement for the acceleration of the expansion plan (merger of the 33-40MAP capex phases with an accelerated pax target timeline) partly funded by a scrip dividend (€240m over 4 years). The latter will have 3 key conse...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (AIA) | Fresh impetus to the thesis but r...
Higher 2024 return, accelerated expansion plan… – AIA’s FY’24 results eclipsed estimates mainly driven by the faster depletion of the carry-forward balance (which is non-recurring in nature) and better-than envisaged unit commercial revenues. The key development though was the announcement for the acceleration of the expansion plan (merger of the 33-40MAP capex phases with an accelerated pax target timeline) partly funded by a scrip dividend (€240m over 4 years). The latter will have 3 key conse...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | Cashing in, moving to Hold
Strong play, but limited new aces up its sleeve, for now – OPAP shares have had a robust start to 2025 returning c11% ytd, fueled by a strong H2’24 operational performance driven by both recurring (strong online/sports betting trends) and non-recurring (e.g. jackpot rollovers) factors. Although the better execution is set to lead FY24 EBITDA c2% above our previous projection and >4% above the upper end of mgt expectations (€750-770m guided range), it also sets a high bar for 2025. The year does ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | Cashing in, moving to Hold
Strong play, but limited new aces up its sleeve, for now – OPAP shares have had a robust start to 2025 returning c11% ytd, fueled by a strong H2’24 operational performance driven by both recurring (strong online/sports betting trends) and non-recurring (e.g. jackpot rollovers) factors. Although the better execution is set to lead FY24 EBITDA c2% above our previous projection and >4% above the upper end of mgt expectations (€750-770m guided range), it also sets a high bar for 2025. The year does ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
Optima Bank | Optimal Growth: Gaining Market Share with Superior RoTE
A clean balance sheet with best-in-class returns – Optima bank is one of the non-systemic Greek banks established in 2019 following the acquisition of Investment Bank of Greece (IBG) by a subsidiary of Motor Oil. It is a unique case among Greek banks given that it has a clean balance sheet (NPE ratio 100%) and a lean and flexible business model (with cost/income c22% in 9M’24, set to remain flattish throughout 2025-27e). Key to the investment thesis is the bank’s very high return on equity, with...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
Optima Bank | Optimal Growth: Gaining Market Share with Superior RoTE
A clean balance sheet with best-in-class returns – Optima bank is one of the non-systemic Greek banks established in 2019 following the acquisition of Investment Bank of Greece (IBG) by a subsidiary of Motor Oil. It is a unique case among Greek banks given that it has a clean balance sheet (NPE ratio 100%) and a lean and flexible business model (with cost/income c22% in 9M’24, set to remain flattish throughout 2025-27e). Key to the investment thesis is the bank’s very high return on equity, with...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
BriQ Properties | High yield, low risk; initiating with a Buy
High yield, diversified RE portfolio – BriQ Properties is one of the largest real estate investment companies in Greece featuring a €283m portfolio and annualized rental income of c€21m (following the completion of the transformational merger with ICI), translating to a c7.6% yield on income-generating assets. The portfolio is quite diversified across the logistics, offices, retail and other sectors, boasting top-notch tenants and almost full occupancy, with embedded inflation-indexed rents and ...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Trade Estates | Too low, too long; 2-digit total return, initiate with...
c13% average annual total annual return, c35% discount to NAV; Buy – Trade Estates (TE) is one of the largest real estate investment companies (REIC) in Greece with a portfolio of assets of c€0.5bn gross asset value (GAV). Having been created in 2021 after the demerger of Fourlis’s property assets, it got listed on the ATHEX in November 2023. Since then, the stock has been weighed down by a confluence of factors including the tightening policy rates cycle (peak rates in Q1’24) and the tepid appe...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Trade Estates | Too low, too long; 2-digit total return, initiate with...
c13% average annual total annual return, c35% discount to NAV; Buy – Trade Estates (TE) is one of the largest real estate investment companies (REIC) in Greece with a portfolio of assets of c€0.5bn gross asset value (GAV). Having been created in 2021 after the demerger of Fourlis’s property assets, it got listed on the ATHEX in November 2023. Since then, the stock has been weighed down by a confluence of factors including the tightening policy rates cycle (peak rates in Q1’24) and the tepid appe...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2025 outlook | Almost same story, different ye...
Repeat of 2024, with different headwinds – Following a year in which Greek equities performed broadly in line with EU periphery stocks (but better than broad EU indices), 2025 looks somewhat trickier given international headwinds (e.g. tariffs, geopolitics). Easing monetary policy is certainly a positive, in the sense that it could justify higher valuations, but the overriding driver of re-rating would be a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as is the case for the EU as a whole. On the positive s...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2025 outlook | Almost same story, different ye...
Repeat of 2024, with different headwinds – Following a year in which Greek equities performed broadly in line with EU periphery stocks (but better than broad EU indices), 2025 looks somewhat trickier given international headwinds (e.g. tariffs, geopolitics). Easing monetary policy is certainly a positive, in the sense that it could justify higher valuations, but the overriding driver of re-rating would be a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as is the case for the EU as a whole. On the positive s...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
GREEK ENERGY | Greek Power Play Handbook: 2025 Edition
Charging in a new era; Prefer power companies over refineries – The Greek energy market underwent structural shifts in 2024, with disruptions in Eastern Europe driving high intraday volatility in electricity prices, which is likely to persist as long as Greece remains a net electricity importer. Since regulatory interventions were lifted in 2024, power generation units saw a step-up in their spark spreads, capturing 2-digit premia vs baseload prices amidst daily price spikes, while the retail ma...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
GREEK ENERGY | Greek Power Play Handbook: 2025 Edition
Charging in a new era; Prefer power companies over refineries – The Greek energy market underwent structural shifts in 2024, with disruptions in Eastern Europe driving high intraday volatility in electricity prices, which is likely to persist as long as Greece remains a net electricity importer. Since regulatory interventions were lifted in 2024, power generation units saw a step-up in their spark spreads, capturing 2-digit premia vs baseload prices amidst daily price spikes, while the retail ma...
- Natalia Svyriadi
AEGEAN AIRLINES | Cloudy Horizons, Strong Wings
Rising capacity weighing somewhat on 2025e outlook; we now expect mid single digit rise in 2025e EBITDA – With AIA capacity additions up double digits in H1’25, we raise our forecasts for Aegean’s capacity by 2%, now modelling +6% annual ASK growth in 2025e. We expect this supply backdrop to raise the bar for demand growth to sustain yields, thus envisaging mild pressure on pricing and stable load factors for 2025e. Against this backdrop, we have lowered our revenue forecasts by 1% in 2025e, whi...
- Natalia Svyriadi
AEGEAN AIRLINES | Cloudy Horizons, Strong Wings
Rising capacity weighing somewhat on 2025e outlook; we now expect mid single digit rise in 2025e EBITDA – With AIA capacity additions up double digits in H1’25, we raise our forecasts for Aegean’s capacity by 2%, now modelling +6% annual ASK growth in 2025e. We expect this supply backdrop to raise the bar for demand growth to sustain yields, thus envisaging mild pressure on pricing and stable load factors for 2025e. Against this backdrop, we have lowered our revenue forecasts by 1% in 2025e, whi...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
ADMIE Holding | Empowering the Greek Energy Transition
Outperformer yet still an outlier, trading at a discount to RAB… – Following the WACC uptick to 7.5% in mid-2023, IPTO went on to post a robust FY’23 performance, with EBITDA surging 43% yoy to €278mn while being on track to grow another 20% in FY’24e. ADMIE’s stock has mirrored the strong operating momentum, rallying 30% in 2023, followed by a 19% return in 2024, outperforming both Greek non-fins and its EU peers. Despite this impressive share performance, ADMIE still trades at a 10% discount t...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
ADMIE Holding | Empowering the Greek Energy Transition
Outperformer yet still an outlier, trading at a discount to RAB… – Following the WACC uptick to 7.5% in mid-2023, IPTO went on to post a robust FY’23 performance, with EBITDA surging 43% yoy to €278mn while being on track to grow another 20% in FY’24e. ADMIE’s stock has mirrored the strong operating momentum, rallying 30% in 2023, followed by a 19% return in 2024, outperforming both Greek non-fins and its EU peers. Despite this impressive share performance, ADMIE still trades at a 10% discount t...
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Autohellas | Gearing up for a growth comeback
Challenging, albeit resilient, 2024e… – Our 2024e forecasts picture the precarious backdrop in the auto trade business, which is expected to partly offset the strong performance in long term rentals and the resilient picture in short term rentals and used car sales. In the meantime, the inflationary environment alongside the normalization of the supply chain have led to higher priced vehicles and at the same time stabilizing demand, thus weighing on vehicles inventory and depreciation costs. We ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Autohellas | Gearing up for a growth comeback
Challenging, albeit resilient, 2024e… – Our 2024e forecasts picture the precarious backdrop in the auto trade business, which is expected to partly offset the strong performance in long term rentals and the resilient picture in short term rentals and used car sales. In the meantime, the inflationary environment alongside the normalization of the supply chain have led to higher priced vehicles and at the same time stabilizing demand, thus weighing on vehicles inventory and depreciation costs. We ...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Dimand | Waiting game
Delays in project monetization weighing on the shares – Dimand’s share performance remains subdued in 2024, with the stock enjoying just a temporary respite during Aug-Sep. The shares have come under renewed pressure since early November, surrendering all the gains registered during Q2’24. Weighing on the stock, in our view, has been the timeline slippage regarding the monetization of assets (e.g. Minion), fact that has pushed back the key catalyst for re-rating. H1’24 results were in general he...
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