reports
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Noval Property | Smart Land, Light Debt, Long Runway, 2-digit total re...
High yield, diversified portfolio with green flavor – Noval Property (NP) is Greece's 3rd largest REIC with a current GAV of €648m, comprising 61 assets (of which 31 income-producing). Annualized rental income stands at c€34m, translating to c7.3% yield (on income-generating assets). Noval has a well-balanced sector exposure across office buildings (c28% of rental income), retail (c50%), hospitality (c10%), industrial/logistics (c8%), while its properties boast top-notch tenants and high occupan...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Recharged by results, lifted by M&A
Q1 results spark 6% outperformance in Greek banks, led by Alpha – Q1 results triggered an 6% outperformance of Greek banks vs their EU periphery peers (and 8% vs SX7E), led by Alpha Bank (+27% since 28 Apr), followed by Optima (+22%), NBG (+14%), Piraeus (+13%), and Eurobank (+10%). The rally was earnings-driven—Alpha (+24% vs cons) and NBG (+17%) delivered standout beats—while Alpha’s momentum was further fuelled by the Astrobank and AXIA bolt-ons and, primarily, by the UniCredit stake increase...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Recharged by results, lifted by M&A
Q1 results spark 6% outperformance in Greek banks, led by Alpha – Q1 results triggered an 6% outperformance of Greek banks vs their EU periphery peers (and 8% vs SX7E), led by Alpha Bank (+27% since 28 Apr), followed by Optima (+22%), NBG (+14%), Piraeus (+13%), and Eurobank (+10%). The rally was earnings-driven—Alpha (+24% vs cons) and NBG (+17%) delivered standout beats—while Alpha’s momentum was further fuelled by the Astrobank and AXIA bolt-ons and, primarily, by the UniCredit stake increase...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Motodynamics | From Acceleration to Cruise Control
Normalized top-line growth, margin pressure but on solid ground – Motodynamics acts as the exclusive distributor for Yamaha in Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria, as well as Porsche in Greece, while also operating the SIXT rent-a-car (RaC) franchise. Supported by strong domestic macro trends and continued growth in Greek tourism, the group delivered 15.7% revenue CAGR over 2019-24. That said, the pace is now set to moderate as post-COVID supply chains normalise and market volumes begin to settle. Aga...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
IDEAL HOLDINGS | Fuel for the next leg
Barba Stathis deal sealed at €166m EV; enhancing exposure to defensive sectors – IDEAL Holdings completed the acquisition of 100% of Barba Stathis (BBS) on March 31st, in a transaction valued at €166m EV (with the equity component at €130m). The deal was funded through a mix of internal cash and c€38m in debt and marks a strategic step toward reinforcing IDH’s exposure to non-cyclical, cash-generative sectors. In our view, BBS fits squarely within the group’s investment framework — a market lead...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | High Voltage Strategy, Low Voltage Va...
Roadmap laid out; focus now lies on implementation… – Following a successful transformation over the past few years, PPC has been expanding its RES footprint and emerging as a leading utility in SE Europe. Mgt aims to continue the Group’s evolution, with a strategy focused on accelerating RES development, modernising its thermal fleet, investing in distribution, and retaining its stronghold in supply, targeting EBITDA of €2.7bn by 2027e (+14% CAGR). Despite these ambitious targets outpacing mos...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | High Voltage Strategy, Low Voltage Va...
Roadmap laid out; focus now lies on implementation… – Following a successful transformation over the past few years, PPC has been expanding its RES footprint and emerging as a leading utility in SE Europe. Mgt aims to continue the Group’s evolution, with a strategy focused on accelerating RES development, modernising its thermal fleet, investing in distribution, and retaining its stronghold in supply, targeting EBITDA of €2.7bn by 2027e (+14% CAGR). Despite these ambitious targets outpacing mos...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: Robust and in line; toughening comps ahead
In line quarter; comps to get tougher in H2 – OPAP has reported results in line with our projections delivering 8% revenue growth (to €595m) and 9% higher EBITDA (to €207m). In general, Q1 looks in symphony with the recent experience, namely strong online growth (+20%, powered by Stoiximan) and healthy retail (+4%). Across the verticals, betting (+13%, helped by strong sports margins) and online casino (+20%) stood out. We remind that the quarter benefited from favourable sports results and the ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: Robust and in line; toughening comps ahead
In line quarter; comps to get tougher in H2 – OPAP has reported results in line with our projections delivering 8% revenue growth (to €595m) and 9% higher EBITDA (to €207m). In general, Q1 looks in symphony with the recent experience, namely strong online growth (+20%, powered by Stoiximan) and healthy retail (+4%). Across the verticals, betting (+13%, helped by strong sports margins) and online casino (+20%) stood out. We remind that the quarter benefited from favourable sports results and the ...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Premia Properties | 2024 Delivers, 2025 Reloads
Upward revisions on 2024 delivery and ECB rates easing – Premia reported an 18% yoy increase in FY’24 revenue to €22.4m, driven by CPI-linked rental uplifts and incremental income from newly added assets. Annualized rental income now stands at c€30m, reflecting a gross yield >7% on income-producing assets. The company’s GAV reached c€498m, up 62% from c€307m in 2023, underscoring the successful execution of PP’s expansion strategy. Looking ahead, we have revised our estimates to reflect the comb...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Real Consulting | Upward momentum carries on; headed for the Main Mark...
Robust FY’24 showcases execution capabilities, operational strength – RC’s FY’24 results in April confirmed our expectations for a strong end to the year, with the group successfully delivering €40.4m revenue (+34% yoy) and €7.3m adj. EBITDA (+45% yoy), on par with guidance. The results validated our view of strong execution throughout 2024, as mgt reported that all milestones across ongoing contracts were met within the allotted timeframe. Importantly, the performance highlighted resilient oper...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Strong Q1 Delivery, Valuation Still Stuck in Catch-Up Mo...
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off 2025 with a strong set of Q1, reporting net profits of €1.26bn, down just 4% qoq but coming in 5% above our expectations and 8% ahead of consensus, with Alpha Bank and NBG leading the beat (24% and 17% vs cons, respectively). Results were supported by resilient NII (in line), tight cost control (OpEx slightly below), and a solid trading line beat. Credit quality remained stable, with average CoR broadly in line at c50bps. Sector-wide NII fell 5%...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Strong Q1 Delivery, Valuation Still Stuck in Catch-Up Mo...
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off 2025 with a strong set of Q1, reporting net profits of €1.26bn, down just 4% qoq but coming in 5% above our expectations and 8% ahead of consensus, with Alpha Bank and NBG leading the beat (24% and 17% vs cons, respectively). Results were supported by resilient NII (in line), tight cost control (OpEx slightly below), and a solid trading line beat. Credit quality remained stable, with average CoR broadly in line at c50bps. Sector-wide NII fell 5%...
- Natalia Svyriadi
QUEST HOLDINGS | Multi-segment growth, single-digit multiple
Raising forecasts, high single digit EBIT CAGR… – We have revised our forecasts to reflect the integration of Benrubi into Quest’s Commercial Products division, along with modest upgrades to IT and Courier Services EBITDA. Benrubi is expected to contribute c€5m in EBITDA (11-mth impact), adding c40bps to the commercial segment margins. As a result, we lift our 2025e group EBITDA by 5% to €102.9m (+12% YoY), on revenues of €1,438m (+8% YoY). Looking forward, we increase group EBITDA by 6-9% over ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: numbers as expected, GR EBIT...
Q1 group EBITDAaL +1% yoy, as expected; little to get excited about – Q1 results broadly matched expectations, reflecting a stable but rather unexciting performance. Group revenues were rather muted (flat yoy) at €879m, with Greece +0.8% driven by resilient mobile (+1.2%), 2-digit growth in Pay TV, and robust ICT (>10%), offset by lower wholesale, a marginal drop in retail fixed and a drag from Romania (-8% yoy). At EBITDAaL level, Greece delivered +1.8% growth to €329m, aided by payroll efficie...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: numbers as expected, GR EBIT...
Q1 group EBITDAaL +1% yoy, as expected; little to get excited about – Q1 results broadly matched expectations, reflecting a stable but rather unexciting performance. Group revenues were rather muted (flat yoy) at €879m, with Greece +0.8% driven by resilient mobile (+1.2%), 2-digit growth in Pay TV, and robust ICT (>10%), offset by lower wholesale, a marginal drop in retail fixed and a drag from Romania (-8% yoy). At EBITDAaL level, Greece delivered +1.8% growth to €329m, aided by payroll efficie...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Jumbo | Jumbonomics v2025: from soft landing to margin tailwinds
FY24 as resilient as could be given multiple headwinds… – 2024 left us with mixed feelings, with Jumbo delivering just 4% adj. EBITDA and c3% adj. EPS growth on 6.3% sales growth, due to mild gross margin compression and cost deleveraging from new capacity (c0.7pps increase in opex/sales). That said, the actual performance eclipsed the overly cautious message echoed by mgt last summer (flat net income), validating the resilience of the business model. FCF was weaker than our expectation due to ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Jumbo | Jumbonomics v2025: from soft landing to margin tailwinds
FY24 as resilient as could be given multiple headwinds… – 2024 left us with mixed feelings, with Jumbo delivering just 4% adj. EBITDA and c3% adj. EPS growth on 6.3% sales growth, due to mild gross margin compression and cost deleveraging from new capacity (c0.7pps increase in opex/sales). That said, the actual performance eclipsed the overly cautious message echoed by mgt last summer (flat net income), validating the resilience of the business model. FCF was weaker than our expectation due to ...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Kri-Kri | Spoon by spoon into the world
Yogurt momentum in UK and Italy increase our confidence in the growth profile; Buy – Kri-Kri’s strategic focus on international markets continues to deliver, with robust demand for authentic Greek yogurt, particularly in the UK and Italy. Category growth remains particularly strong, with volumes up >40% in the UK and c20% in Italy in 2024, supported by consumer demand for natural products aligned with health and wellness trends, a momentum we expect to persist in 2025. With the ability to scale ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Coca-Cola Hellenic | Momentum intact but re-rating room narrowing
Sweet 2025 outlook – CCH entered 2025 with strong momentum, backed by strong execution and encouraging signals from Russia/Ukraine negotiations. Mgt is guiding for +7–11% organic EBIT growth in 2025e, underpinned by +6–8% organic sales growth, driven by disciplined pricing and tight cost control. CCH is c60% hedged on 2025 raw material needs, with COGS/case inflation expected in the low-to-mid single digits. … building on a strong 2024 – 2024 delivered another strong performance, with organic...
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