reports
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Profile Software | Raising the Profile: Growth in High Gear
Algosystems enhances group outlook; acquisition sealed at attractive valuation – Profile signed an SPA in November to acquire 87.23% of Algosystems, a GR network engineering & cybersecurity company, for a consideration of €3-4mn, implying an attractive valuation of c3-4x EV/EBITDA for a business generating EBITDA €14m incremental revenue in 2026e, although we anticipate some margin dilution over 2026-27e given Algosystems’ low-2-digit EBITDA margin profile, before mgt progressively lifts margins...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Aegean Airlines | Holding Altitude Amid Turbulence
A turbulent 2025e – We have moderately lowered our 2025 revenue forecast to €1.84bn (up 3.8% yoy) and reduced our bottom-line estimate by c2% to €139mn (+7% yoy), while maintaining both our load factor (82.5%) and EBITDA forecast (€422mn, +4% yoy). These revisions capture the two-speed nature of 2025: robust H1 pricing and meaningful FX gains offset by Q3 softness and an anticipated Q4 pullback on a demanding comp base. At the same time, Aegean continues to push significant capacity growth into ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Aegean Airlines | Holding Altitude Amid Turbulence
A turbulent 2025e – We have moderately lowered our 2025 revenue forecast to €1.84bn (up 3.8% yoy) and reduced our bottom-line estimate by c2% to €139mn (+7% yoy), while maintaining both our load factor (82.5%) and EBITDA forecast (€422mn, +4% yoy). These revisions capture the two-speed nature of 2025: robust H1 pricing and meaningful FX gains offset by Q3 softness and an anticipated Q4 pullback on a demanding comp base. At the same time, Aegean continues to push significant capacity growth into ...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
PERFORMANCE TECHNOLOGIES | Full Performance Mode: From Projects to Pre...
Leading systems integrator with top-tier partnerships and strong local positioning – Performance Technologies is a leading systems integrator and IT services provider, designing and implementing digital transformation solutions across cloud, observability, ITSM/ESM, analytics, automation, cybersecurity and AI. The group delivers the full lifecycle of deployments (planning, customization, implementation, maintenance and managed SaaS/services) leveraging long-standing partnerships with top-tier te...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Dimand | Patience Required, Value Intact
Progress delivered in 2025, but at a more measured tempo than we had hoped – While initial guidance pointed to three exits within the year (Minion, EEDE Patissia and Piraeus Tower), only Minion seems on track for completion in 2025, with the remaining transactions shifting into 2026. H1’25 results also indicated a milder pace of construction progress than we had previously anticipated, as reflected in softer fair value gains, leading us to recalibrate our development phasing. At the same time th...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Kri-Kri | The taste of acceleration; when demand meets dynamo
Export engine accelerates; Buy – Following the 9M’25 and improved visibility on demand and pricing into 2026, our confidence in KRI’s growth trajectory has increased. We see international yogurt momentum, mainly in the UK and Italy (sales +63% and +21% in the 9M), reinforcing the export-led strategy, supported by expanding shelf presence and sustained demand for natural, high-protein products. With capacity set to ramp through 2027 (supporting c€500mn in sales by 2029e), KRI is positioned to tra...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Constructive but more selective
Broad earnings resilience, but no spark for upgrades… – Systemic Greek banks delivered results broadly in line with our estimates and consensus. NII momentum stabilised in 3Q (-0.2% q/q), effectively marking the trough after three consecutive quarters of deceleration, given Euribor’s plateauing. Fees posted a mild q/q decline—consistent with our forecasts—reflecting seasonal softness in payments and money transfers, while bancassurance and asset-management’s AuMs continued to expand at a strong ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Constructive but more selective
Broad earnings resilience, but no spark for upgrades… – Systemic Greek banks delivered results broadly in line with our estimates and consensus. NII momentum stabilised in 3Q (-0.2% q/q), effectively marking the trough after three consecutive quarters of deceleration, given Euribor’s plateauing. Fees posted a mild q/q decline—consistent with our forecasts—reflecting seasonal softness in payments and money transfers, while bancassurance and asset-management’s AuMs continued to expand at a strong ...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Autohellas | A demanding year, but the engine still turns
2025e: resilient but stagnant amid elevated competition – Autohellas has maintained solid top line momentum across its core activities despite an increasingly demanding backdrop, continuing to gain share in key segments. Against this environment we have modestly trimmed our 2025 forecasts to reflect the soft patch in international rentals and the intensified competition in both Greek rentals and Autotrade. At the same time, profitability remains constrained by elevated depreciation tied to a mor...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Autohellas | A demanding year, but the engine still turns
2025e: resilient but stagnant amid elevated competition – Autohellas has maintained solid top line momentum across its core activities despite an increasingly demanding backdrop, continuing to gain share in key segments. Against this environment we have modestly trimmed our 2025 forecasts to reflect the soft patch in international rentals and the intensified competition in both Greek rentals and Autotrade. At the same time, profitability remains constrained by elevated depreciation tied to a mor...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Forged for higher returns; Buy, top pick
New Metals pillars reshape the investment case… – Metlen’s mid-term roadmap marks a decisive evolution in its business model, with 3 new Metals subsegments—Circular Metals, Critical Metals and Defense—set to redefine its growth mix. Collectively, these new activities are targeted to add c€520m of incremental EBITDA, or >50% of the uplift toward mgt’s €1.9-2.1bn medium-term goal. These platforms carry exceptionally high return metrics (ROIC 30-70%) and complement the existing aluminium value cha...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Forged for higher returns; Buy, top pick
New Metals pillars reshape the investment case… – Metlen’s mid-term roadmap marks a decisive evolution in its business model, with 3 new Metals subsegments—Circular Metals, Critical Metals and Defense—set to redefine its growth mix. Collectively, these new activities are targeted to add c€520m of incremental EBITDA, or >50% of the uplift toward mgt’s €1.9-2.1bn medium-term goal. These platforms carry exceptionally high return metrics (ROIC 30-70%) and complement the existing aluminium value cha...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: no surprises, EBITDA flattish yoy
Q3 in line, EBITDA flattish as tough comps were counterbalanced by another exceptional performance from Joker – Q3 results came broadly as we expected, with revenue and EBITDA growth slowing to 6.6%/0.5% (+4.7%/+4.3% in Q2) due to a demanding comparison base following the Euro-driven sportsbook boost last year. Joker once again stood out, adding €12m yoy thanks to jackpot rollovers, accounting for roughly 2.1% of quarterly group growth and effectively cushioning the drag from other segments. Oth...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: no surprises, EBITDA flattish yoy
Q3 in line, EBITDA flattish as tough comps were counterbalanced by another exceptional performance from Joker – Q3 results came broadly as we expected, with revenue and EBITDA growth slowing to 6.6%/0.5% (+4.7%/+4.3% in Q2) due to a demanding comparison base following the Euro-driven sportsbook boost last year. Joker once again stood out, adding €12m yoy thanks to jackpot rollovers, accounting for roughly 2.1% of quarterly group growth and effectively cushioning the drag from other segments. Oth...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Motodynamics | Powered for the long haul: New drivers, solid ground
Normalized top-line growth, margin pressure but on solid ground – Following the solid 9M’25 performance, which offers good visibility on full-year trends, we have fine-tuned our forecasts, modestly lifting our revenue outlook but trimming our profitability expectations. For 2025e, we now expect revenues of €214.8mn (+9.6% yoy), with the €5–15mn uplift over 2025–27e driven primarily by the ramp-up of Toyota and NIO in an otherwise normalizing market. On the earnings side, however, we forecast EBI...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Public Power Corporation (PPC) | Greener, faster, stronger
Greenification roadmap intact, without funding overhang – PPC’s Capital Markets Day (CMD) delivered a clear and cohesive roadmap for the next chapter of the Group’s transformation, building on the message communicated last year. Although the updated targets reflected mainly the 1-year rollover (to 2028e), the messaging indicated a sharpening of strategic focus on renewables, flexible generation, networks and customer solutions across SE Europe. The shift in the generation mix is set to accelera...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Public Power Corporation (PPC) | Greener, faster, stronger
Greenification roadmap intact, without funding overhang – PPC’s Capital Markets Day (CMD) delivered a clear and cohesive roadmap for the next chapter of the Group’s transformation, building on the message communicated last year. Although the updated targets reflected mainly the 1-year rollover (to 2028e), the messaging indicated a sharpening of strategic focus on renewables, flexible generation, networks and customer solutions across SE Europe. The shift in the generation mix is set to accelera...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Cleaner but not materially faster; retain Ho...
Q3 healthy and in line, but without much to move the needle; recalibrating numbers to Greece-only – Q3 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €360m, +2% yoy and broadly in line with forecasts, with the underlying mix unchanged: resilient mobile (mobile service revenues +2.7%), mildly improving retail fixed (+1.3%), and solid ICT momentum (other revenues +14%). Reported net profit landed at €258m due to the €105m Romania-related tax gain, with adj. net profit at €170m (-2% yoy), in sync with our model. Overall...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Cleaner but not materially faster; retain Ho...
Q3 healthy and in line, but without much to move the needle; recalibrating numbers to Greece-only – Q3 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €360m, +2% yoy and broadly in line with forecasts, with the underlying mix unchanged: resilient mobile (mobile service revenues +2.7%), mildly improving retail fixed (+1.3%), and solid ICT momentum (other revenues +14%). Reported net profit landed at €258m due to the €105m Romania-related tax gain, with adj. net profit at €170m (-2% yoy), in sync with our model. Overall...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
JUMBO | Margins bruised but value unbroken; top pick
Somewhat disappointing H1, but H2 set to be better – Jumbo’s H1 results were rather disappointing, with adj. EBITDA up just 7% yoy but shaping c5% below our estimates. The disappointment stemmed from a 1.4pps yoy contraction in gross margins, contrary to our expectation for expansion and out of sync with the appreciation of the EUR vs the USD. This led to net profit of €117m, -4% yoy, or -8% vs our number, with the optics of reported numbers affected further by the tough comp due to last year’s ...
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