reports
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: tepid group Q2 weighed down ...
Q2 group EBITDAaL +0.6% yoy, a bit softer than expected due to Romania (RO); GR growth in sync with FY25 guidance – Q2 group adj. numbers look a tad below our forecasts, with the underlying pattern remaining largely unchanged: strong mobile (service rev. +3.2%), tepid but positive retail fixed (+0.6%), and RO weighing on group metrics (EBITDAaL loss €4.6m). Overall, group sales rose 0.3% yoy to €913m, with GR +1.1%. GR EBITDAaL advanced 2% to €333m, in sync with mgt FY guidance, while group EBIT...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | First thoughts: tepid group Q2 weighed down ...
Q2 group EBITDAaL +0.6% yoy, a bit softer than expected due to Romania (RO); GR growth in sync with FY25 guidance – Q2 group adj. numbers look a tad below our forecasts, with the underlying pattern remaining largely unchanged: strong mobile (service rev. +3.2%), tepid but positive retail fixed (+0.6%), and RO weighing on group metrics (EBITDAaL loss €4.6m). Overall, group sales rose 0.3% yoy to €913m, with GR +1.1%. GR EBITDAaL advanced 2% to €333m, in sync with mgt FY guidance, while group EBIT...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Dimand | Delivery Phase In, Mega Pipeline On
Making some headway, enjoying some respite – 2024 was a year of meaningful delivery for Dimand, marked by the successful monetisation of Insignio and Hub 26, which helped unlock capital to support the development pipeline. While exits from Minion, EEDE Patisia and Piraeus Tower slipped into 2025, the closing of the Skyline transaction and the significant rebound in financial performance—2024 EBITDA rose to €58m from €19m—underscored growing operational momentum. From a market perspective, the pr...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Thrace Plastics | Positioned for demand bounce back Vol 2
2024: Margin pressure in a tough year – In a year characterized by sustained demand headwinds and rising costs pressure, Thrace EBITDA was weighed down by category/product mix, despite the 7% yoy increase in the top line. Adj. EBITDA was down by 4% yoy to €42.3m in 2024, while group turnover advanced to €370m driven by strong volume growth (+10% yoy). 2024 PBT shaped at €13.7m, down vs adj. EBT of €20.2m in 2023, weighed by one-off costs and elevated depreciation charges. As a result, net profit...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
Athens Exchange | Navigating the dual catalyst: M&A optionality meets ...
Athex rerated YTD, but still room to go – Following a sluggish 2024 (-15%), ATHEX shares have rallied c60% in 2025, fuelled by: i) rising trading intensity (ADV >40% y/y at c€200mn ytd), ii) firming conviction in Greece’s DM reclassification (FTSE & Stoxx reviews in sight), and iii) an M&A premium after Euronext confirmed discussions for a potential tender offer. Although the shares have re-rated meaningfully (i.e c20%) following the Euronext news, we believe there is further upside as: (i) EXAE...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
Athens Exchange | Navigating the dual catalyst: M&A optionality meets ...
Athex rerated YTD, but still room to go – Following a sluggish 2024 (-15%), ATHEX shares have rallied c60% in 2025, fuelled by: i) rising trading intensity (ADV >40% y/y at c€200mn ytd), ii) firming conviction in Greece’s DM reclassification (FTSE & Stoxx reviews in sight), and iii) an M&A premium after Euronext confirmed discussions for a potential tender offer. Although the shares have re-rated meaningfully (i.e c20%) following the Euronext news, we believe there is further upside as: (i) EXAE...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Fourlis | Clearer story, cheaper stock
New narrative, old skepticism – Following the deconsolidation of Trade Estates, Fourlis now presents a cleaner equity narrative, with the spotlight firmly on the core retail portfolio. However, the deconsolidation seems to have offered limited respite to the shares, which have materially underperformed both foreign peers and Greek non-fins over the past 24 months, reflecting subdued investor appetite, notwithstanding encouraging (albeit not impressive) operational delivery. Weighing on sentiment...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Fourlis | Clearer story, cheaper stock
New narrative, old skepticism – Following the deconsolidation of Trade Estates, Fourlis now presents a cleaner equity narrative, with the spotlight firmly on the core retail portfolio. However, the deconsolidation seems to have offered limited respite to the shares, which have materially underperformed both foreign peers and Greek non-fins over the past 24 months, reflecting subdued investor appetite, notwithstanding encouraging (albeit not impressive) operational delivery. Weighing on sentiment...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Greek Refineries (HelleniQ Energy – Motor Oil) | Margins stronger for ...
Robust H1 builds promise for the rest of the year – Following a muted – in terms of share performance – 2024, held back by sector-wide headwinds (retreating refining margins) and company-specific challenges (fire incident and MSCI exclusion in MOH’s case), Greek refineries have rebounded ytd (Total return: MOH +23%, ELPE +14%), supported by recovering margins and strong operational resilience, with prospects also looking promising for H2’25 given easy comps. Meanwhile, both companies have built ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
Greek Refineries (HelleniQ Energy – Motor Oil) | Margins stronger for ...
Robust H1 builds promise for the rest of the year – Following a muted – in terms of share performance – 2024, held back by sector-wide headwinds (retreating refining margins) and company-specific challenges (fire incident and MSCI exclusion in MOH’s case), Greek refineries have rebounded ytd (Total return: MOH +23%, ELPE +14%), supported by recovering margins and strong operational resilience, with prospects also looking promising for H2’25 given easy comps. Meanwhile, both companies have built ...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Noval Property | Smart Land, Light Debt, Long Runway, 2-digit total re...
High yield, diversified portfolio with green flavor – Noval Property (NP) is Greece's 3rd largest REIC with a current GAV of €648m, comprising 61 assets (of which 31 income-producing). Annualized rental income stands at c€34m, translating to c7.3% yield (on income-generating assets). Noval has a well-balanced sector exposure across office buildings (c28% of rental income), retail (c50%), hospitality (c10%), industrial/logistics (c8%), while its properties boast top-notch tenants and high occupan...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Recharged by results, lifted by M&A
Q1 results spark 6% outperformance in Greek banks, led by Alpha – Q1 results triggered an 6% outperformance of Greek banks vs their EU periphery peers (and 8% vs SX7E), led by Alpha Bank (+27% since 28 Apr), followed by Optima (+22%), NBG (+14%), Piraeus (+13%), and Eurobank (+10%). The rally was earnings-driven—Alpha (+24% vs cons) and NBG (+17%) delivered standout beats—while Alpha’s momentum was further fuelled by the Astrobank and AXIA bolt-ons and, primarily, by the UniCredit stake increase...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Recharged by results, lifted by M&A
Q1 results spark 6% outperformance in Greek banks, led by Alpha – Q1 results triggered an 6% outperformance of Greek banks vs their EU periphery peers (and 8% vs SX7E), led by Alpha Bank (+27% since 28 Apr), followed by Optima (+22%), NBG (+14%), Piraeus (+13%), and Eurobank (+10%). The rally was earnings-driven—Alpha (+24% vs cons) and NBG (+17%) delivered standout beats—while Alpha’s momentum was further fuelled by the Astrobank and AXIA bolt-ons and, primarily, by the UniCredit stake increase...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Motodynamics | From Acceleration to Cruise Control
Normalized top-line growth, margin pressure but on solid ground – Motodynamics acts as the exclusive distributor for Yamaha in Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria, as well as Porsche in Greece, while also operating the SIXT rent-a-car (RaC) franchise. Supported by strong domestic macro trends and continued growth in Greek tourism, the group delivered 15.7% revenue CAGR over 2019-24. That said, the pace is now set to moderate as post-COVID supply chains normalise and market volumes begin to settle. Aga...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
IDEAL HOLDINGS | Fuel for the next leg
Barba Stathis deal sealed at €166m EV; enhancing exposure to defensive sectors – IDEAL Holdings completed the acquisition of 100% of Barba Stathis (BBS) on March 31st, in a transaction valued at €166m EV (with the equity component at €130m). The deal was funded through a mix of internal cash and c€38m in debt and marks a strategic step toward reinforcing IDH’s exposure to non-cyclical, cash-generative sectors. In our view, BBS fits squarely within the group’s investment framework — a market lead...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | High Voltage Strategy, Low Voltage Va...
Roadmap laid out; focus now lies on implementation… – Following a successful transformation over the past few years, PPC has been expanding its RES footprint and emerging as a leading utility in SE Europe. Mgt aims to continue the Group’s evolution, with a strategy focused on accelerating RES development, modernising its thermal fleet, investing in distribution, and retaining its stronghold in supply, targeting EBITDA of €2.7bn by 2027e (+14% CAGR). Despite these ambitious targets outpacing mos...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION (PPC) | High Voltage Strategy, Low Voltage Va...
Roadmap laid out; focus now lies on implementation… – Following a successful transformation over the past few years, PPC has been expanding its RES footprint and emerging as a leading utility in SE Europe. Mgt aims to continue the Group’s evolution, with a strategy focused on accelerating RES development, modernising its thermal fleet, investing in distribution, and retaining its stronghold in supply, targeting EBITDA of €2.7bn by 2027e (+14% CAGR). Despite these ambitious targets outpacing mos...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: Robust and in line; toughening comps ahead
In line quarter; comps to get tougher in H2 – OPAP has reported results in line with our projections delivering 8% revenue growth (to €595m) and 9% higher EBITDA (to €207m). In general, Q1 looks in symphony with the recent experience, namely strong online growth (+20%, powered by Stoiximan) and healthy retail (+4%). Across the verticals, betting (+13%, helped by strong sports margins) and online casino (+20%) stood out. We remind that the quarter benefited from favourable sports results and the ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: Robust and in line; toughening comps ahead
In line quarter; comps to get tougher in H2 – OPAP has reported results in line with our projections delivering 8% revenue growth (to €595m) and 9% higher EBITDA (to €207m). In general, Q1 looks in symphony with the recent experience, namely strong online growth (+20%, powered by Stoiximan) and healthy retail (+4%). Across the verticals, betting (+13%, helped by strong sports margins) and online casino (+20%) stood out. We remind that the quarter benefited from favourable sports results and the ...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Premia Properties | 2024 Delivers, 2025 Reloads
Upward revisions on 2024 delivery and ECB rates easing – Premia reported an 18% yoy increase in FY’24 revenue to €22.4m, driven by CPI-linked rental uplifts and incremental income from newly added assets. Annualized rental income now stands at c€30m, reflecting a gross yield >7% on income-producing assets. The company’s GAV reached c€498m, up 62% from c€307m in 2023, underscoring the successful execution of PP’s expansion strategy. Looking ahead, we have revised our estimates to reflect the comb...
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