reports
- Natalia Svyriadi
Autohellas | A demanding year, but the engine still turns
2025e: resilient but stagnant amid elevated competition – Autohellas has maintained solid top line momentum across its core activities despite an increasingly demanding backdrop, continuing to gain share in key segments. Against this environment we have modestly trimmed our 2025 forecasts to reflect the soft patch in international rentals and the intensified competition in both Greek rentals and Autotrade. At the same time, profitability remains constrained by elevated depreciation tied to a mor...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Autohellas | A demanding year, but the engine still turns
2025e: resilient but stagnant amid elevated competition – Autohellas has maintained solid top line momentum across its core activities despite an increasingly demanding backdrop, continuing to gain share in key segments. Against this environment we have modestly trimmed our 2025 forecasts to reflect the soft patch in international rentals and the intensified competition in both Greek rentals and Autotrade. At the same time, profitability remains constrained by elevated depreciation tied to a mor...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Forged for higher returns; Buy, top pick
New Metals pillars reshape the investment case… – Metlen’s mid-term roadmap marks a decisive evolution in its business model, with 3 new Metals subsegments—Circular Metals, Critical Metals and Defense—set to redefine its growth mix. Collectively, these new activities are targeted to add c€520m of incremental EBITDA, or >50% of the uplift toward mgt’s €1.9-2.1bn medium-term goal. These platforms carry exceptionally high return metrics (ROIC 30-70%) and complement the existing aluminium value cha...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
METLEN | Forged for higher returns; Buy, top pick
New Metals pillars reshape the investment case… – Metlen’s mid-term roadmap marks a decisive evolution in its business model, with 3 new Metals subsegments—Circular Metals, Critical Metals and Defense—set to redefine its growth mix. Collectively, these new activities are targeted to add c€520m of incremental EBITDA, or >50% of the uplift toward mgt’s €1.9-2.1bn medium-term goal. These platforms carry exceptionally high return metrics (ROIC 30-70%) and complement the existing aluminium value cha...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: no surprises, EBITDA flattish yoy
Q3 in line, EBITDA flattish as tough comps were counterbalanced by another exceptional performance from Joker – Q3 results came broadly as we expected, with revenue and EBITDA growth slowing to 6.6%/0.5% (+4.7%/+4.3% in Q2) due to a demanding comparison base following the Euro-driven sportsbook boost last year. Joker once again stood out, adding €12m yoy thanks to jackpot rollovers, accounting for roughly 2.1% of quarterly group growth and effectively cushioning the drag from other segments. Oth...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | First thoughts: no surprises, EBITDA flattish yoy
Q3 in line, EBITDA flattish as tough comps were counterbalanced by another exceptional performance from Joker – Q3 results came broadly as we expected, with revenue and EBITDA growth slowing to 6.6%/0.5% (+4.7%/+4.3% in Q2) due to a demanding comparison base following the Euro-driven sportsbook boost last year. Joker once again stood out, adding €12m yoy thanks to jackpot rollovers, accounting for roughly 2.1% of quarterly group growth and effectively cushioning the drag from other segments. Oth...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Motodynamics | Powered for the long haul: New drivers, solid ground
Normalized top-line growth, margin pressure but on solid ground – Following the solid 9M’25 performance, which offers good visibility on full-year trends, we have fine-tuned our forecasts, modestly lifting our revenue outlook but trimming our profitability expectations. For 2025e, we now expect revenues of €214.8mn (+9.6% yoy), with the €5–15mn uplift over 2025–27e driven primarily by the ramp-up of Toyota and NIO in an otherwise normalizing market. On the earnings side, however, we forecast EBI...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Public Power Corporation (PPC) | Greener, faster, stronger
Greenification roadmap intact, without funding overhang – PPC’s Capital Markets Day (CMD) delivered a clear and cohesive roadmap for the next chapter of the Group’s transformation, building on the message communicated last year. Although the updated targets reflected mainly the 1-year rollover (to 2028e), the messaging indicated a sharpening of strategic focus on renewables, flexible generation, networks and customer solutions across SE Europe. The shift in the generation mix is set to accelera...
- Marios Bourazanis
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Public Power Corporation (PPC) | Greener, faster, stronger
Greenification roadmap intact, without funding overhang – PPC’s Capital Markets Day (CMD) delivered a clear and cohesive roadmap for the next chapter of the Group’s transformation, building on the message communicated last year. Although the updated targets reflected mainly the 1-year rollover (to 2028e), the messaging indicated a sharpening of strategic focus on renewables, flexible generation, networks and customer solutions across SE Europe. The shift in the generation mix is set to accelera...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Cleaner but not materially faster; retain Ho...
Q3 healthy and in line, but without much to move the needle; recalibrating numbers to Greece-only – Q3 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €360m, +2% yoy and broadly in line with forecasts, with the underlying mix unchanged: resilient mobile (mobile service revenues +2.7%), mildly improving retail fixed (+1.3%), and solid ICT momentum (other revenues +14%). Reported net profit landed at €258m due to the €105m Romania-related tax gain, with adj. net profit at €170m (-2% yoy), in sync with our model. Overall...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OTE (Hellenic Telecoms) | Cleaner but not materially faster; retain Ho...
Q3 healthy and in line, but without much to move the needle; recalibrating numbers to Greece-only – Q3 adj. EBITDAaL came in at €360m, +2% yoy and broadly in line with forecasts, with the underlying mix unchanged: resilient mobile (mobile service revenues +2.7%), mildly improving retail fixed (+1.3%), and solid ICT momentum (other revenues +14%). Reported net profit landed at €258m due to the €105m Romania-related tax gain, with adj. net profit at €170m (-2% yoy), in sync with our model. Overall...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
JUMBO | Margins bruised but value unbroken; top pick
Somewhat disappointing H1, but H2 set to be better – Jumbo’s H1 results were rather disappointing, with adj. EBITDA up just 7% yoy but shaping c5% below our estimates. The disappointment stemmed from a 1.4pps yoy contraction in gross margins, contrary to our expectation for expansion and out of sync with the appreciation of the EUR vs the USD. This led to net profit of €117m, -4% yoy, or -8% vs our number, with the optics of reported numbers affected further by the tough comp due to last year’s ...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
JUMBO | Margins bruised but value unbroken; top pick
Somewhat disappointing H1, but H2 set to be better – Jumbo’s H1 results were rather disappointing, with adj. EBITDA up just 7% yoy but shaping c5% below our estimates. The disappointment stemmed from a 1.4pps yoy contraction in gross margins, contrary to our expectation for expansion and out of sync with the appreciation of the EUR vs the USD. This led to net profit of €117m, -4% yoy, or -8% vs our number, with the optics of reported numbers affected further by the tough comp due to last year’s ...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Noval Property | Growth under construction, value still undiscovered
Revisions on project timelines; steady growth outlook intact – Noval Property (NP) delivered a solid H1’25 performance, with rental income up 11% yoy to €17.7mn and adj. EBITDA rising 17% yoy to €11.0mn, driven by indexation gains, turnover rents and new leases. Following an update to project phasing, we have slightly trimmed our forecasts to reflect later contributions of some projects, partly offset by lower operating and financing costs, leaving our near-term adj. net profit forecasts little-...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Premia Properties | Built for growth, priced for caution
Growth acceleration on higher capex and capital increase firepower – Premia delivered solid H1’25 results, with gross rental income up +€8.2m yoy to €17.9mn and adj. EBITDA more than doubling to €11.2mn, reflecting the full-year contribution of 2024 property additions. Following the €40mn share capital increase in July, we have revised our forecasts to reflect the enlarged investment plan. For 2025e we now expect revenues of €35.1mn, adj. EBITDA of €23.3mn (+3% vs prior) and net income of €20.2m...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | A broader game in play; scale meets complexity
Shifting narrative, rotation in progress – OPAP shares fell c15% peak to trough, after the announcement of the deal with Allwyn, before recovering partly as investors continue to digest the story (with the €19.04 cash exit also offering technical support). The pullback has been driven by a rotation in the shareholder base (as the investment case pivots from yield to growth) alongside corporate governance concerns (mostly around the preferred shares granting KKCG 85% of voting rights) & valuation...
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
OPAP | A broader game in play; scale meets complexity
Shifting narrative, rotation in progress – OPAP shares fell c15% peak to trough, after the announcement of the deal with Allwyn, before recovering partly as investors continue to digest the story (with the €19.04 cash exit also offering technical support). The pullback has been driven by a rotation in the shareholder base (as the investment case pivots from yield to growth) alongside corporate governance concerns (mostly around the preferred shares granting KKCG 85% of voting rights) & valuation...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Coca-Cola HBC | Africa calling: The next growth frontier
Transformative $2.6bn deal with CCBA – Coca-Cola HBC announced an agreement to acquire a 75% stake in Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA) from The Coca-Cola Co. and Gutsche Family Investments for a total consideration of $2.6bn, implying a full equity value of c$3.5bn and an EV of $4.5bn including c$1bn net debt. The transaction, expected to be completed by end-2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals, will be funded through a mix of $1.6bn cash and c21mn new shares (5.5% of share capita...
- Natalia Svyriadi
Coca-Cola HBC | Africa calling: The next growth frontier
Transformative $2.6bn deal with CCBA – Coca-Cola HBC announced an agreement to acquire a 75% stake in Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA) from The Coca-Cola Co. and Gutsche Family Investments for a total consideration of $2.6bn, implying a full equity value of c$3.5bn and an EV of $4.5bn including c$1bn net debt. The transaction, expected to be completed by end-2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals, will be funded through a mix of $1.6bn cash and c21mn new shares (5.5% of share capita...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
Bank of Cyprus | Tide of Dividends
From Turnaround to Top-Tier Returns – Over the past decade, Bank of Cyprus (BoC) has executed one of Europe’s most far-reaching restructurings. From NPEs peaking at 63% in 2015, the ratio has collapsed to just 1.7% in H1’25, among the cleanest in Europe, with coverage at 124%. This derisking, coupled with high-rate sensitivity during the 2022–23 tightening cycle, propelled profitability to the top of the sector: RoTE reached 21.4% in 2024 (18.4% in H1’25), well above the 14–15% Greek/periphery a...
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