Greece Equity Strategy | It’s not over till it’s over
In our latest Strategy update report, we argue that:• Greek stocks look quite attractive from a valuation perspective, with non-financials standing c31% below their pre-COVID 19 levels, still factoring in a c6% Equity Risk Premium.
• Relative valuations are even more compelling, with Greek non-financials trading at a multi-year-high discount vs EU peers.
• 1-year forward estimates seem to have stabilized and earnings momentum has turned positive, but with 2021e operating estimates standing c2% above 2019 levels, risk is skewed on the downside in our view.
• Greek banks remain at an ultra-low valuation (c0.2x P/TBV) and at a deep discount to EU peers, suggesting a compelling risk/return profile. Recent news flow has revealed a number of encouraging signs, which however are overshadowed by the overall limited visibility. In short, we retain a constructive stance for the sector expecting valuations to eventually grind higher, but we caveat that the timing of this remains uncertain.
• The renewed virus incidence and the low visibility regarding the pace of recovery make up a rather opaque backdrop for Greek equities. We thus expect the Greek market to trade range-bound in the coming months and to remain susceptible to swings in risk perception.
• The Recovery fund is a conditional game changer, but the road to disbursements is still long. That said, Greece is poised to be among the main beneficiaries. Under our assumptions, the Next Generation EU package could propel GDP by c1.2%-3.6% (net) in 2021-2023, and c11% overall in the next 6 years.
Top picks: yield, stability, quality – Against this background, we caution against adding more cyclicality to investor portfolios at this point and argue for a relatively defensive stock allocation. We posit that names with earnings insulated from COVID-19 (e.g. OTE, Terna Energy), quality stocks with the valuation already reflecting conservative macro developments (e.g. Mytilineos), total cash return stocks (e.g. OTE) offering high yield in a low interest rate environment and the bank offering the best risk/return profile (NBG) are the most compelling value proposition at the current juncture. Barring a major spike of the virus in the coming months, we also recommend gradual selective positions in quality cyclically-geared names (e.g. Fourlis, OPAP). Our top picks at the current juncture are OTE (Buy, PT €14.7), NBG (Buy, PT €1.92), Mytilineos (Buy, PT €10.7) and Terna Energy (Buy, PT €13.7).
Alpha Bank is a banking and financial services group which is based in Greece. Co. is engaged in offering a range of services including retail, SME and corporate banking, credit cards, asset management, investment banking, private banking, brokerage, leasing and factoring. Co. is also active in international financial market, with a presence in Cyprus, Romania, London, Serbia, Albania, Jersey (Channel Islands), Bulgaria, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and New York. Co. maintains a focus on retail banking in Greece and particularly loans to individuals and small business loans, and overall expansion in Southeastern Europe. Co.'s activities are divided into retail and wholesale banking.
Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. produces, sells and distributes an extensive portfolio of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. Co.'s business is engaged in producing, selling and distributing non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages under bottlers' agreements with The Coca-Cola Company. In some Territories, Co. also produces, sells, distributes and markets its own brands of juice and Water beverages. In addition, Co. bottles and distributes beer in Bulgaria and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Co. distributes a selected number of third party premium spirit brands in certain central and eastern European operations.
Co. is engaged in the manufacture, import and distribution of electrical household appliances and the manufacture of FOURLIS kitchen hoods. In addition, through a subsidiary, Co. is engaged in the operation of a retail chain.
Co. is a consumer goods manufacturer and distributor engaged in operations in Greece. Co. produces consumer goods such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, households, pet products, car's accessories and apparel. Co. produces its own brand name of cosmetic products such as Prosar, Str8, BU99, Clochard, Carroten, Tokalon and others. Co.'s product portfolio also includes a range of international brands such as Estee Lauder, Clinique, Aramis, Donna Karen, Orlane, Montana Versace and others.
OPAP is engaged in the operating and management of numerical lottery and sports betting games as well as lottery games. Co. holds concession to operate and manage new sports betting games in Greece as well as a right of first refusal to operate and manage any new lottery games permitted by the Hellenic Republic. Co. operates six numerical lottery games, including Joker, Lotto, Proto, Extra 5, Super 3, and Kino; and three sports betting games consisting of Stihima, Propo, and Propo-goal. Co. is also engaged in designing new lottery games, including Bingo and Super 4. Co. distributes its games through an extensive on-line network of agents.
The Hellenic Exchanges is engaged in the following business sectors: trading, clearing, settlement, data feed, IT, exchange services, depository services, clearinghouse services, and other.
Hellenic Petroleum operates in the energy sector predominantly in Greece and the Balkans. Co.'s main activities include: refining and marketing of oil products ("R&M"); exploration, development and production, of hydrocarbons ("E&P"); manufacturing and marketing of petrochemical products; and power generation and trading. Refining, supply and trading are Co.'s core business and its main source of income and profit. Retail trading activities are split into domestic, comprising Co.'s Greek subsidiaries EKO and Hellenic Fuels, and International through local in-market retail subsidiary companies. Hydrocarbon exploration and production (E&P) Co. activities relate to Greece and abroad.
Hellenic Telecommunications Organization is a full-service telecommunications group. Co. provides local, long-distance and international fixed-line telecommunications services in Greece and Romania, and mobile telephony services through its Cosmote subsidiary in Greece, as well as in Albania, Bulgaria, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Romania. Co. also provides internet access services and Internet Protocol (IP) -based telecommunications applications, as well as information technology application development and hosting services using IP technologies. Also, Co. provides several other telecommunications services, including value-added services and public telephone services.
Jumbo is a trading company based in Greece. Co.'s main operation is retail sale of toys, baby items, seasonal items, decoration items, books and stationery. A part of its operations is wholesale of toys and similar items to third parties. Co. and its subsidiaries have four geographical segments: Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and Romania. At June 30 2015, Co. operated 72 stores in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and in Romania and the on line store e-jumbo.
Lamda Development is a real estate development group based in Greece. Co.'s main activities comprise investment, development and maintenance of innovative real estate projects. Co. operates in Greece, as well as in other neighboring Balkan countries mainly Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro. Co.'s operations are organized along two business segments: Real Estate; and Marine Services. Co. is a subsidiary of Lamda Holdings.
Motor Oil Hellas Corinth Refineries operates in the oil sector with its main activities being oil refining and oil products trading. Due to its flexibility, Co. can process crude oils of various characteristics and produce a full range of petroleum products, complying with the most stringent International Specifications, serving major petroleum marketing companies in Greece and abroad. Apart from fuels, Co. is the only lubricants producer and packager in Greece. Base oils and finished lubricants produced, are approved by International Organizations, ACEA, API, the U.S. NAVY & ARMY.
Mytilineos Holdings is an industrial group engaged in the sectors of Metallurgy, EPC, Energy, and Defence. Co. and its subsidiaries are engaged in three main operating business segments: Metallurgy, Constructions and Energy. Co. and its subsidiaries monitor its performance on Metallurgy and Mining Sector through the subsidiaries Aluminium S.A. (Alumina-Aluminium) and Sometra S.A. (Zinc-Lead). Co., through its subsidiary, METKA S.A., is an EPC Constructor in Greece.
National Bank of Greece is a financial institution based in Greece. Co. maintains operations in the retail banking sector, with 509 branches and one premium banking branch, and 1,448 ATMs. Co. offers its customers a range of integrated financial services, including: corporate and investment banking; retail banking (including mortgage lending); leasing and factoring; stock brokerage and asset management; insurance; and real estate and consulting services. Co. is also involved in other businesses, including hotel and property management. Co. operates in Greece, U.K., South Eastern Europe which includes Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Serbia, as well as, in Cyprus, Malta, Egypt and South Africa.
Piraeus Bank is a banking institute. Co. and its subsidiaries provide services in the Southeastern Europe, Egypt, as well as Western European markets. Co. and its subsidiaries operate in four main business segments: Retail Banking, which includes the retail banking facilities; Corporate Banking, which includes facilities related to corporate banking; Investment Banking, which includes activities related to investment banking facilities of Co. and its subsidiaries, including investment and advisory services, underwriting services and public listings, and stock exchange services; and Asset Management and Treasury, which includes asset management facilities for clients.
Profile Systems & Software SA. Profile Systems and Software SA is a Greece-based information technology (IT) company. The Company provides technology solutions to the Banking and Investment Management industries. The Company's specialization lies in Private Wealth Management Software and Investment Portfolio Management Software, as well as a range of Banking Software solutions. It partners with global IT and software companies, providing integrated software solutions for the financial services sector covering banking, investment management, risk and compliance, and capital markets. In addition, the Company offers a range of services, including project management, consulting, customization, customer support and training. The Company operates offices in Geneva, Dubai, London, Singapore, Athens and Nicosia.
Terna Energy is a vertically organized renewable energy sources group based in Greece. Co. is mainly engaged in the energy and construction sector. Co. is active in Wind Energy, as well as Hydroelectric Projects, Solar PV and Integrated Management of Waste to Energy and Biomass Projects. Co. is also engaged in the research for the operation and construction of projects related to other renewable energy sources (RES). Co. maintains a class 6 contractor certificate and its activity in the construction sector relates to the construction of private and public projects as a main contractor or subcontractor or through joint ventures.
Titan Cement Co. and, its subsidiaries (collectively, the Group) are engaged in the production, trade and distribution of a range of construction materials, including cement, concrete, aggregates, cement blocks, dry mortars and fly ash. The Group operates primarily in Greece, the Balkans, Egypt, Turkey and the U.S. The Group operates in 14 countries in Europe, North America and the Eastern Mediterranean and is organized in the following four operating (geographic) segments: Greece and Western Europe, North America, South East Europe, and Eastern Mediterranean.
Eurobank Equities is a Greek-based firm offering research, sales and trading services to institutional, corporate and private clients. The company is wholly owned by Eurobank, one of the 4 systemic banks in Greece.
Research is the backbone of Eurobank Equities' platform, with a team of 4 professionals committed to generating actionable investment ideas by providing timely research products. We are committed to offering value-added services to clients by filtering market noise and providing insights on the multiple sectors that we cover. Our universe includes 26 - large, medium and small cap - companies whose market capitalization amounts to 80-85% of the total market capitalization of the Athens Stock Exchange. Our research team also maintains the capacity to generate ad-hoc research for micro-cap listed companies.
Our team has consistently gained recognition among institutional investors for its quality research, having ranked No. 1 team in Greece at the Extel Surveys of 2013-2016 and 2018. We have also been named Leading Brokerage Firm in Greece over 2014-2016 and in 2018.
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