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Dimand | Delivery Phase In, Mega Pipeline On

Making some headway, enjoying some respite – 2024 was a year of meaningful delivery for Dimand, marked by the successful monetisation of Insignio and Hub 26, which helped unlock capital to support the development pipeline. While exits from Minion, EEDE Patisia and Piraeus Tower slipped into 2025, the closing of the Skyline transaction and the significant rebound in financial performance—2024 EBITDA rose to €58m from €19m—underscored growing operational momentum. From a market perspective, the price performance during 2024 was disappointing (-22%), but with the stock enjoying some respite during 2025 following idiosyncratic news (new projects) and a generic re-rating of Greek equities.

2025 shaping up as a pivotal monetization year – Our investment thesis is predicated on value creation stemming from asset monetization and capital recycling via the selling of Dimand’s participation in the SPVs developing the properties. With 13 projects poised to be completed over 2025-28e, asset turnover is set to increase markedly in the coming years helping the group bolster its balance sheet, monetize the capital invested and increase ROE. Indicatively, we estimate total profits of c€170m to be crystallized from the current pipeline through 2028e, of which c€34m in 2025e alone, rendering this year pivotal for monetization.

How to value Dimand – Valuing Dimand is a rather herculean task due to the complexities associated with the group’s structure and the nature of the development business itself. Our approach is quite simple, namely we value Dimand’s stake in: 1) projects in progress, 2) projects recently announced; and 3) project Skyline, while also adding the value of: 4) the project mgt services business, which is “asset-light” and can be considered a recurring income stream. We are not keen to assign a perpetual value for Dimand at this stage, since our PT is on a 12m basis and, at the current juncture, we believe that any growth potential for the company beyond its current and in-progress land bank scale would be hard to be priced-in. Our reverse-engineering exercise suggests that the current share price incorporates solely the well telegraphed projects in progress, Skyline and the value of the services Business, while leaving as free-option the recently announced projects (Lavrio, Notos, Cambas and Gournes) with €1.2bn total development cost and potential value creation near €2.5 per share, on our numbers, in present value terms.

Valuation: PT lifted on enlarged project pipeline – We have recalibrated our model refreshing our numbers for: 1) project phasing assumptions (e.g. push-back of construction progress), 2) Skyline project perimeter and shareholder structure changes (e.g. incorporating a lower effective stake for Dimand); 3) an enlarged new project pipeline, namely incl. Cambas and Gournes. Our valuation remains based on the aforementioned SOTP framework and has been edged up to €12.0/share, mainly as a result of the scaling-up of Dimand’s project pipeline. Valuation-wise, although the stock has seen some respite recently rebounding to levels near the €9.5-10.0 mark, the valuation looks subdued at still c1x P/spot NAV. We remind that global developers with 2-digit ROEs normally trade at or above 1x P/NAV. Given the capital generation embedded in our numbers, the discount to NAV on 2025-26e looks overly punitive in our view. We thus reiterate that we expect the shares to trade higher in the valuation spectrum as confidence in the company’s ability to sustain ROE in the 2-digits grows and as mgt continues to execute project exits (e.g. Minion, EEDE and Piraeus Tower in 2025e).