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GREEK STRATEGY | Greek elections – Tick the box and look ahead

With 99.8% of the vote counted at the time of this writing, ND seems to secure an 8-seat majority (158 MPs), garnering 39.9% of the popular vote compared with 31.5% for Syriza (86 MPs). The gap between the two parties appears to have narrowed somewhat relative to the recent EU elections (8.3% vs. 9.3% at the May’19 EU election) but certainly constitutes a comfortable win for the conservative party, albeit one that was largely anticipated as most recent opinion polls were pointing to a 5-6 seat absolute majority for ND. As far as other parties are concerned, Movement of Change (ex PASOK/Democratic Alliance) came 3rd with 8.1% (22 seats), with the Communist Party following in the 4th position (5.3%, 15 seats). The rest of the parties that make up the new Parliament are Greek Solution (3.7%, 10 seats) and DiEM 25 (3.4%, 9 seats). The resulting Parliament comprises 6 parties and is therefore less fragmented than the one that shaped after the 2015 general elections (8 parties). Of note is that Golden Dawn failed to reach the minimum 3% threshold and will not be represented in Parliament. The market will be eyeing the new cabinet which will be announced today, with shadow FinMin Christos Staikouras reportedly being the key candidate for the post of new Finance Minister.