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Research Report (Initial Coverage) english - Mexedia S.p.A. SB - 22.12.2025

Mexedia Rebooted: Wholesale Normalization and Return to Profitability from 2026

Mexedia S.p.A. Società Benefit operates as an international wholesale telecommunications provider focused on global voice and SMS termination services. The company routes traffic for telecom carriers, VoIP operators, and messaging aggregators through its interconnection network, combining routing expertise with long-standing supplier relationships to secure competitive and reliable termination capacity.
After the disruption in 2024 linked to working-capital constraints and the resulting traffic contraction, Mexedia has re-established commercial continuity and rebuilt the operational capacity required to support core wholesale volumes. The sharp rebound in the first half of 2025 indicates that underlying business fundamentals remain intact; however, 2025 should still be viewed as a transition year. Despite the operational recovery, we forecast that the Group will remain clearly loss-making at the net level in FY2025, with a net loss of €12m, reflecting the lag effect of 2024, elevated financial costs, and the time required for full traffic normalization.
Strategically, Mexedia’s focus is firmly centered on its core wholesale carrier business, where the Group benefits from international reach, diversified interconnections, and specialized routing capabilities. Management’s priorities are directed toward restoring sustainable cash generation, strengthening financial discipline, and improving operating leverage as traffic volumes normalize. While the Group continues to monitor selective opportunities that could enhance its positioning within the telecommunications value chain, no acquisitions or inorganic transactions are assumed as part of the current operating perimeter or financial forecasts. The outlook presented in this report is based exclusively on the standalone recovery trajectory of the existing business activities.
Recent leadership changes, including the appointment of the new CEO, reinforce management’s emphasis on operational execution, financial discipline, and cash-flow restoration. With a streamlined organizational model, improving visibility on traffic volumes, and a tighter cost structure, Mexedia is positioned to stabilize margins through 2025 and transition toward sustained profitability beginning in 2026.
Our discounted cash flow valuation indicates a target price of 50.00 Euro per share, which represents significant potential upside relative to current trading levels. We believe the market still prices Mexedia primarily on past volatility rather than on its improving fundamentals and medium term earnings potential. With an increasingly focused strategy, recovering margins, and a return to growth, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating.