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Research study (update) english – PFISTERER Holding SE – 20.11.2025

9-month figures exceed our expectations; forecasts and target price raised

After PFISTERER was still affected by the relocation of the Wunsiedel site to Kadaň at the beginning of the year, it embarked on an impressive growth course from the second quarter of 2025 onwards. This continued in the third quarter of 2025 with a 25.5% increase in sales, bringing sales after nine months to €326.63 million, up 14.5% on the previous year's figure of €285.16 million.

In line with the significant increase in sales, PFISTERER shows noticeable improvements at all earnings levels. Gross profit increased to €135.36 million in the first three quarters of 2025 (previous year: €110.77 million), which corresponds to an increase in the gross margin to 41.4% (previous year: 38.8%). The positive business development in the OHL segment, where the gross margin improved significantly to 40.9% (previous year: 31.9%), played a particularly important role in this.

Despite the significant cost increases associated with the IPO in the second quarter of 2025, the increase in earnings continued at the EBITDA level. In the first nine months of 2025, this rose by 30.3% to €57.84 million (previous year: €44.40 million). This includes, for example, the higher consulting, IT and personnel costs associated with the IPO, which significantly increased administrative expenses to €28.66 million (previous year: €23.13 million).

In its nine-month report, PFISTERER did not publish any specific sales or earnings forecasts for the current 2025 financial year. According to the company, it expects the positive trend in order intake and sales to continue. In the medium term, the adjusted EBITDA margin, which should gradually approach EBITDA "as reported", is expected to be in the upper range of the high teens margin corridor. A key argument for the expected continuation of the positive business development is the significant expansion of the order backlog by 46.0% to €338.74 million (previous year: €231.96 million). At €431.27 million (previous year: €322.84 million), order intake for the first nine months was up 33.6% on the previous year.

If the trend seen in the first nine months of 2025 continues, we estimate that the company will generate revenue growth of 15.1% to €440.86 million (previous GBC forecast: €427.37 million). In terms of earnings, too, the performance in the first nine months exceeded our original expectations. We are therefore raising our EBITDA forecast to €78.00 million (previous GBC forecast: €72.37 million). The EBITDA margin would then be 17.7% (previous GBC forecast: 16.9%), which would correspond exactly to the figure already achieved after nine months in 2025. The same applies to the subsequent earnings levels. Based on our adjusted estimates for 2025, we are also making slight adjustments to our estimates for the coming 2026 financial year. The medium-term forecasts (2027–2030) remain unchanged from our last research study.

The adjustment of estimates for the 2025 and 2026 financial years, the roll-over effect and, in particular, the use of the market approach in determining beta have a significant impact on the result of the DCF valuation model. The new model result is €85.00 per share (previously: €48.00) and we continue to assign a "BUY" rating.