Report
Marta Czajkowska-Baldyga

Polish Banks: Sell rallies; Buy cheaper growth stories

From a top-down perspective the prospects for the Polish banking sector still look positive with consensus expectations for 3.9% YoY GDP growth in 2018E and 3.3% in 2019E following 4.6% in 2017, with a shift in the driving seat to investments from private consumption. Loan growth should remain strong (+8.3% in 2018E and 6.9% in 2019E, excluding the FX mortgage portfolio), while liquidity remains intact with the L/D ratio around 100%. Moreover consensus expects a 75bps increase in the CB base rate by end 2019E. We expect net profit of covered banks to grow by 10% in 2018E and 16% in 2019E. We believe this partially validates the price rally the WIG Banks index enjoyed in 2017 (+35% YoY, LCu). However, in our view the sector looks expensive, on a 2018E P/E of 16.2x and at a 29% premium to CEE banks 2018E P/E of 12.5x, 79% to MSCI EMEA Banks index at 9.0x and 41% to FTSE 300 banks index at 11.4x (on BBG consensus). We see some risks to the rate scenario and thus see downside risks to earnings expectations (we are some 3% below consensus for 2018E-2019E). We recommend underweighting the heavy CHF-exposed Polish banks, which have rallied over the last 12m (namely MBK and MIL) but are positive on PEO as our top pick in the sector and ALR with strong growth prospects. We rate PKO, BZW, ING and BHW Neutral, as the price performances have priced in the positive macro scenario, while some risks remain.
Underlyings
Alior Bank SA

Alior Bank is a universal lending and deposit-taking bank which renders services to individuals, legal persons and other entities which are Polish and foreign persons. Co.'s core activities include maintaining bank accounts, granting loans and advances, issuing banking securities and purchasing and selling foreign currency. Co. also conducts brokerage activities, consulting and financial agency services and renders other financial services.

Bank Handlowy w Warszawie S.A.

Bank Handlowy W Warszawie is a Polish bank holding company engaged in a wide range of banking services for individuals and corporate customers in the domestic and foreign markets. Additionally Co. operates in brokerage operations, lease services and investment operations. Customers have access to these services at the branches, ATM's, telephone services and electronic banking services.

Bank Millennium SA

Bank Millennium provides various banking products and services to individual clients, small businesses, corporate, and public sector entities in Poland. Co. offers current account, custody account, and escrow account; standard deposits, negotiated deposits, millenet deposits, and automatic overnight deposits; debit and charge cards; funds management; professional cash services; and management of balances of current and auxiliary accounts. Co. also provides current account overdraft facility, real estate loans, revolving credits, working capital loans, investment loans, energy financing facility, sureties, line of guarantees, letters-of-credit, preferential loans, and bid bond guarantees.

BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA

Bank Polska Kasa Opieki (the Bank) is a commercial bank providing a range of banking services, mainly in Poland. The segments of the Bank are as follows: Retail banking, which comprises all banking activities related to retail customers and small and micro companies; Private banking, which comprises all banking activities related to the affluent individual customers; Corporate and Investment banking, which comprises all banking activities related to the companies, interbank market, debt securities and other instruments; and Assets and Liabilities Management and other, which is engaged in the supervision and monitoring of fund transfers, and other activities centrally managed.

ING Bank Slaski S.A.

ING Bank Slaski is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in providing a range of banking services rendered for individual and institutional clients in line with the scope of services outlined in Co.'s charter. Co. runs operations both in the home currency and in foreign currencies. Co. is also active on the domestic and foreign financial markets. The subsidiary, ING Bank Hipoteczny S.A., also runs banking business, including loans secured with mortgage. Additionally through subsidiaries, Co. operates brokerage services, real estate, leasing of real estate and advisory and acts as a financial intermediary as well as provides other financial services.

MBANK SA

mBank is a provider of comprehensive corporate banking services in Poland. Co. and its subsidiaries make up the mBank Group which is engaged in offering financial services. Co.'s service offering includes a comprehensive financial offer tailored to the needs of corporate clients, Private Banking clients, and retail clients. The business activities of Co. is conducted in the following business segments: Retail Banking and Corporates and Markets.

PKO Bank Polski S.A.

PKO Bank Polski is a universal commercial bank offering services to both domestic and foreign retail, corporate and other clients. Co. is licensed to hold foreign exchange and currencies and sell/buy them, as well as perform a full range of foreign exchange services; open and hold bank accounts abroad and to deposit foreign exchange in these accounts. In addition, Co. conducts activities relating to leasing, factoring, electronic settlements via payment cards, as well as renders other financial services. As of Dec 31 2009, Co. had total assets of Zl156,478,685,000 and total deposit of Zl124,628,562,000. Co. operates in the Republic of Poland, Ukraine and Sweden.

Santander Bank Polska SA

Bank Zachodni is a bank seated in Poland. Co. and its subsidiaries provide a range of banking services for individual and business customers and operate in domestic and interbank foreign markets. Additionally, Co. provides also the following services, including intermediation in trading securities, leasing, factoring, asset/ fund management, insurance services, trading in stock and shares of commercial companies, and brokerage activity. Operational activity of Co. and its subsidiaries has been divided into five segments: Retail Banking, Business and Corporate Banking, Global Banking and Markets, ALM (Assets and Liabilities Management) and Centre, as well as Santander Consumer.

Provider
Haitong Bank, S.A.
Haitong Bank, S.A.

Haitong is the first international Chinese investment bank and our goal is to be the primary channel for capital flows into and out of China. During 2015 the Senior Management Team in London was expanded significantly to focus on this objective and to provide a full-service cross-asset markets business coupled with sector-focused investment banking. We work closely with our world-wide network of offices to bring a true depth of understanding to all client situations.

Analysts
Marta Czajkowska-Baldyga

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Haitong Bank, S.A.

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