Report
Jorge Guimarães

Iberian Energy Markets: October: very dry but wind is blowing

Electricity demand in Iberia in Oct-17 reached 24.2TWh, +1.6% yoy, while YTD demand is up 1.4% yoy. The avg pool price in October was Eur56.8/MWh, +7% (approx.) yoy, while the weighted avg price YTD is close to Eur51.2/MWh (+43% yoy). Hydro output remained at very low levels –the driest October of the last 20 years in Portugal with rainfall levels at 30% of average (meaning YTD hydro output in Iberia is 53% down yoy and 42% below 2012/16 avg). Wind production, on the other hand, was up 24% yoy, but benefiting from an easy comparable in Oct-16, as the 3.9TWh of Iberian wind output in Oct-17 is still nearly 9% below the 2012/16 avg output for the same month. The thermal gap at nearly 10TWh is up 4% yoy, as on top of the lower hydro output Spanish nuclear production was down 15% yoy. YTD gas demand in Spain remains strong (+9.5% yoy), driven by higher demand for electricity generation (+32% as of Oct-17), but also benefiting from healthy conventional demand levels (approx. +5% yoy). October did not improve trends for hydro exposed players like EDP and Iberdrola. On the other hand, it should have been positive for wind exposed companies like Acciona, Saeta, but also for the renewable arms of EDP (EDPR) and Iberdrola. Strong gas demand remains a plus for Enagás.
Underlying
EDP-Energias de Portugal SA

EDP Energias de Portugal is a utility company engaged as a generator, distributor and supplier of electricity in Portugal, and as an electricity generation company and a gas distributor in the Iberian Peninsula. In addition, Co. is a wind power operator with windfarms for energy generation in the Iberian Peninsula, the U.S., Canada, Brazil, France, Belgium, Italy, Poland and Romania and is engaged in developing wind projects in the U.K. Co. is also engaged in generating solar photovoltaic energy in Portugal, Romania and the U.S, and in Brazil it is engaged as an operator in electricity generation. As of Dec 31 2015, Co. had 9.7 million electricity customers and 1.4 million gas customers.

Provider
Haitong Bank, S.A.
Haitong Bank, S.A.

Haitong is the first international Chinese investment bank and our goal is to be the primary channel for capital flows into and out of China. During 2015 the Senior Management Team in London was expanded significantly to focus on this objective and to provide a full-service cross-asset markets business coupled with sector-focused investment banking. We work closely with our world-wide network of offices to bring a true depth of understanding to all client situations.

Analysts
Jorge Guimarães

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