The Hardman & Co Monthly: November 2023
This month's feature article is entitled 'Gold and a Chinese Credit Event'.A Western phenomenon?
If you own, or are considering owning, gold or gold equities, it’s likely that you’re concerned about protecting your wealth, or the performance of your fund, in the expectation of some kind of financial instability. Maybe your confidence in policymakers is ebbing, or you’ve researched debt bubbles in history and concluded that physical gold and silver have been the safest places to be invested when they unwind. Maybe, you can’t put your finger on it. You don’t know where it might come from, but something doesn’t feel right.
It’s debatable whether we’ve been conditioned as investors to assume that financial instability is a Western phenomenon. The bursting of the tech bubble and Lehman’s failure have conditioned us to focus on Western financial systems for sources of financial turbulence. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on 9 March 2023, followed shortly after by Signature Bank and First Republic, focused attention on the US as a source of systemic risk once again.
The Fed’s rapid increases in interest rates led to huge unrealised losses on bond portfolios held on the asset side of regional bank balance sheets. This led to a credit event in the form of old-fashioned bank runs with customers pulling deposits, a source of funding on the liability side. Forced to sell bonds, banks crystallised losses, rapidly turning some of them insolvent. A $400bn infusion of life support from the FHLBs (Federal Home Loan Banks) and the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) pulled us back from the brink. While investors’ attention has shifted, the support remains in place and the BTFP recently posted a record $107bn high.
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Advanced Oncotherapy is focused on providing radiotherapy systems for cancer treatment through the use of a proton therapy technology. Co. operates in two business segments: proton therapy and healthcare related properties. The healthcare related property U.K. segment relates to Co.'s property in Folkestone, which is being marketed for sale.
Apax Global Alpha is a closed-ended investment company that invests in a diversified portfolio of private equity funds and derived investments in debt and equities. As of Dec 21 2017, Co. targeted an annualized Total Net Asset Value Return across economic cycles of 12-15%, net of fees and expenses. Co.'s investment activities are managed by Apax Guernsey Managers Limited (the Investment Manager) under a discretionary investment management agreement. The Investment Manager obtains investment advice from Apax Partners LLP (Apax Partners). Apax Partners advises on investments globally in companies across four sectors: Tech & Telco, Services, Healthcare and Consumer.
Arbuthnot Banking Group is primarily involved in banking and financial services. Co. is organized into three main operating segments: Retail banking (associate), which incorporates household cash management, personal lending and banking and insurance services; U.K. Private banking, which incorporates private banking, commercial banking and wealth management; and Group Centre, which is comprised in Co.'s Group Centre management. As of Dec 31 2016, Co.'s total assets were £1.27 billion.
Chesnara is a holding company, engaged in the management of life assurance and pension policies. Co.'s segment are CA, S&P, Movestic, and Waard Group. The CA segment is part of Co.'s U.K. life insurance and pensions run-off portfolio. The S&P segment is responsible for conducting both unit-linked and non-linked business, including a with-profits portfolio. The Movestic segment is responsible for conducting both unit-linked and pensions and savings business and providing some life and health product offerings. The Waard Group segment provides life policies, although also includes unit-linked policies and some non-life policies, covering risks such as occupational disability and unemployment.
City of London Investment Group is the holding company for a number of subsidiaries. The principal operating subsidiary is City of London Investment Management Company Limited, which acts as an investment manager on 38 accounts with a total of £3.58 billion under management as at June 30 2017. Co. is an asset management group with an institutional client focus specializing in Emerging Market closed-end fund investments. Co.'s range also include Developed, Frontier and Global Tactical Asset Allocation closed-end fund strategies.
H&T Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, Harvey & Thompson Limited, Co. is engaged in pawnbroking, gold purchasing, retail of jewellery, cheque cashing, unsecured lending and other related services.
ICG Enterprise Trust is an investment trust. Co. is a private equity investment company focused on buyouts in developed markets. Co. invests in private equity funds and also directly in private companies. As of Jan 31 2017, Co.'s total investment portfolio amounted to £594.3 million.
Shield Therapeutics is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of late stage, hospital-focused pharmaceuticals which address areas of high unmet medical need. Co.'s key products are Feraccru®, commercially available for the treatment of Iron Deficiency Anaemia, and PT20, for the treatment of systemic phosphate accumulation (otherwise known as hyperphosphatemia). Co. has an additional pipeline of three prescription pharmaceutical assets (PT20, PT30 and PT40) with commercial synergies.
Volta Finance is a closed-ended investment company with the objective of investing, among other asset types, in the following main asset classes: Collateralized Loan Obligation, Synthetic Corporate Credit, Cash Corporate Credit and ABS. Co. has appointed AXA Investment Managers Paris S.A., as its Alternative Investment Fund Manager to manage the investments of Co.
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