Harlyn Research LLP - Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note 24th May 2017

Report

Harlyn Research LLP

Simon Goodfellow

Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note 24th May 2017

Comforting Conclusion

Low volatility not always followed by an explosion

24/05/2017 4 EN

Provider

Harlyn Research LLP

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

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Analysts

Simon Goodfellow

Other Reports from Harlyn Research LLP

Simon Goodfellow

Simon Goodfellow

Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note October 12 2017

Provided that that causes of the next bear market in US equities originate in the US, investors should have time to adjust their asset allocation before the correction turns into a full-scale bear market. The necessary rise in excess volatility (equities minus bonds) takes several months and cannot happen without someone noticing.

October 12, 2017 October 12, 2017 4 EN

Simon Goodfellow

Simon Goodfellow

Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note October 4 2017

Across a broad spread of asset classes and strategies, investors have responded to recent dollar strength by putting on a series of trades which suggest they expect it to continue. This doesnâ€™t prove that it will, but the market reaction has been consistent and immediate.

October 4, 2017 October 4, 2017 4 EN

Simon Goodfellow

Simon Goodfellow

Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note September 27 2017

If we understand Janet Yellen correctly, there are no constraints in the real economy which critically affect the speed at which US interest rates can rise. But there must be a critical constraint, and we believe it is the requirement not to upset the low volatility environment in US equities. If we are right, the Fed wants an environment where single digit returns from equity are seen as risk-efficient, and a correction does not turn into a bear market. If they manage this, the bull market can carry on, but it will be walking not charging.

September 27, 2017 September 27, 2017 5 EN

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Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note 24th May 2017

Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note October 12 2017

Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note October 4 2017

Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note September 27 2017

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