reports
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note October 12 2017
Provided that that causes of the next bear market in US equities originate in the US, investors should have time to adjust their asset allocation before the correction turns into a full-scale bear market. The necessary rise in excess volatility (equities minus bonds) takes several months and cannot happen without someone noticing.
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note October 4 2017
Across a broad spread of asset classes and strategies, investors have responded to recent dollar strength by putting on a series of trades which suggest they expect it to continue. This doesn’t prove that it will, but the market reaction has been consistent and immediate.
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note September 27 2017
If we understand Janet Yellen correctly, there are no constraints in the real economy which critically affect the speed at which US interest rates can rise. But there must be a critical constraint, and we believe it is the requirement not to upset the low volatility environment in US equities. If we are right, the Fed wants an environment where single digit returns from equity are seen as risk-efficient, and a correction does not turn into a bear market. If they manage this, the bull market can ...
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note September 6 2017
US investors are being bailed out of a tight situation by the weaker dollar. The chances of losing money on their overseas equity positions are much lower than they are in domestic fixed income. The same is true for domestic equities. They can afford to do nothing, but euro-based investors face a much tougher choice.
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Synopsis August 23 2017
We fully expect a correction in US and global equities at some stage during the Autumn, but unless two or more of our risk-scenarios crystallize at the same time, we don’t think it will be more than 10%. There is too much residual momentum, especially outside the USA, and even after a correction, realised volatility will be below its long-run average.
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note August 23 2017
We fully expect a correction in US and global equities at some stage during the Autumn, but unless two or more of our risk-scenarios crystallize at the same time, we don’t think it will be more than 10%. There is too much residual momentum, especially outside the USA, and even after a correction, realised volatility will be below its long-run average.
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note July 27 2017
International investors are still in love with Eurozone equities, but the strength of the euro is starting to cause problems for domestic investors. The euro is probably overbought in the short-term, but further strength later this year would cramp Eurozone earnings growth in 2018 and tighten monetary conditions in which would allow the ECB to delay interest rate rises and shrinking its balance sheet.
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note July 19 2017
Europe, apart from the UK, is producing better risk-adjusted returns than most emerging markets. These have been flattered by favourable FX movements, but there are good fundamental reasons for this as well. Unless the euro gets too strong, we don’t see why investors would want to change a winning formula, anytime soon.
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note July 12 2017
The new big idea is that Financials are responding to the prospect of a co-ordinated tightening of monetary policy which will steepen yield curves round the world. At a sector level, there is some superficial evidence to support this, but when we look are individual stocks, particularly in Europe, we see that there are other and better explanations.
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note July 05 2017
We agree with consensus that an equity correction could happen at any time. However, we will not be buying the dip in the US. We much prefer the Eurozone, which has a habit of late-cycle outperformance. We also prefer Japan, which has just hit a new 22-year high, to EM, which keeps failing at resistance just above current levels.
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Weekly Strategy Note June 29 2017
We use excess volatility as the hurdle rate by which equities must beat bonds, in order to be risk-efficient. In the US, it has just hit a new low going back to 1995. In the Eurozone, it is at a new 20-year low. Risk conditions have never been more benign. This means that they are very likely to deteriorate, possibly quite soon. We also think that central banks want this to happen – but not too much.
- Simon Goodfellow
- Simon Goodfellow
- Simon Goodfellow
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Synopsis May 10 2017
Newspapers like to argue that events are unforecastable, which is why you need to pay for access to news. We agree that forecasts don’t really work, but we don’t think news does either. We think that prices move before news. Very often the change in price is the news.
- Simon Goodfellow
- Simon Goodfellow
Harlyn Synopsis May 4 2017
The frequency distribution of realised volatility for US equities is bi-modal, which suggests there are two overlapping risk-regimes, rather than one continuous one. This would make the US different from the rest of the world and increase the potential for a non-linear market response to an incremental policy action by the Fed.
- Simon Goodfellow
- Simon Goodfellow
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.