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Research Team
- Research Team
Macro Review-Macro Insight: Larger Financial Aid Buys More Time for Ec...
Ukraine’s economy has been in a sluggish recovery mode since 3Q24, and chances for a significant near-term acceleration are slim. The need to cut the fiscal deficit and budget expenditures will significantly restrain GDP growth going forward. We see economic growth close to 3% this year and next, supported by recovery in household consumption and higher agricultural output. Inflation is set to start decelerating rapidly from June on last year’s high base and larger supply of agricultural har...
Research Team
- Research Team
Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- IMF increases foreign aid assumptions
On Friday, the IMF board approved the 7th review of the EFF program for Ukraine, which opens the way for a $0.4bn loan tranche. The IMF memorandum revealed that Ukraine expects more financial aid than previously planned. The IMF revised some of the key macroeconomic indicators and, most important, assumptions about the size of foreign financial aid that Ukraine is going to receive over the period of the EFF program.
Research Team
- Research Team
Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- Monthly inflation slows markedly in February
Consumer inflation slowed to 0.8% MoM in February and marked the third month of steep deceleration from 1.9% MoM in November. Annual headline inflation was up to 13.4% from 12.9% in January while core CPI increased to 12.0% YoY from 11.7% a month before. Food prices accelerated to 15.0% YoY after growth rate remained nearly flat at 14.1-14.4% over the previous three months. Other commodity groups that saw significant price acceleration are alcohol and tobacco (up to 14.9% from 14.2%), transpo...
Research Team ... (+2)
- Research Team
- Taras Kotovych
Weekly Insight -- Hryvnia set new appreciation records
Last week, the hryvnia appreciated to UAH25.68/US$, a new record for 2019 and 2018. This week, we should continue to see appreciation due to FX inflows from foreign investors in local-currency debt, and a low level of NBU participation in the market.
Research Team ... (+2)
- Research Team
- Taras Kotovych
Bond Market Insight -- Hryvnia borrowings increase
In July's first auction, demand for local-currency bills exceeded UAH10bn, and the amount of borrowings exceeded UAH8bn. These amounts were greater than at any auction during the previous two months. Yesterday's demand was spread across all instruments, while interest rates in the bids allowed a decrease in the cost of borrowings.
Research Team ... (+2)
- Research Team
- Taras Kotovych
Research Team ... (+2)
- Research Team
- Taras Kotovych
Research Team ... (+2)
- Research Team
- Taras Kotovych
Bond Market Insight -- More borrowings in FX
Borrowing in the domestic bonds market still relies on demand from foreign investors, which, in turn, depends on which instruments are offered. This week, demand once again favoured FX-denominated bills, which allowed the MoF to refinance part of today's debt repayments.
Vitaliy Vavryshchuk
- Vitaliy Vavryshchuk
Macro Review-Macro risks edge up on large fiscal needs
Macroeconomic risks have increased in the past months, but even so, they remain fully manageable. The recent resumption of inflow of foreign financial aid provides a comfortable safety cushion for the FX market and a vital liquidity source for the state budget. Expected disruptions in electricity supplies in late autumn and winter is currently the second most significant risk for the economy, while the shaky safety situation remains the top risk. The economy was off to a great start in 2024, ...
Vitaliy Vavryshchuk
- Vitaliy Vavryshchuk
Macro Update -- Macro Risks Remain Manageable
The resilience of Ukraine’s economy to unprecedented external shocks remains beyond any doubt. The economy continues to grow in 2024 at a reasonable pace and massive destruction of the country’s energy infrastructure will only slow, but not disrupt, the recovery. Ukraine’s largest economic achievement of the past quarters is the launch of a fully functioning Black Sea cargo corridor that made it possible to export a wide range of commodities. The biggest positive surprise of 1Q24 was a sharp slo...
Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- Consumer inflation accelerates
Mainly due to the sharp rise in prices for food and housing services, inflation rose to 6.1% in January, exceeding the upper limit of the NBU's target range. Looking ahead, the impact of pro-inflationary factors will be partially offset by the strengthening of the exchange rate, keeping inflation not far from current levels. As before, we expect that at the next meeting on monetary issues on 4 March, the NBU Board will keep the rate on hold at 6%.
Research Team
- Research Team
Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- Construction keeps growing
After falling during 1H20 against the background of the coronacrisis, construction has been steadily increasing since August, mainly due to public financed road infrastructure projects. In 2021, we expect the role of construction as a growth driver to move to the private sector.
Mykhailo Demkiv
- Mykhailo Demkiv
Banking Sector Insight: About to take off
​The Ukrainian banking system is bouncing back from the bottom of the financial crisis which was reached in 1H15. Increased solvency and the abundant level of liquidity at most banks paves the way for a credit revival. Financial stabilisation is now on firmer ground. The Ukrainian banking system is showing strong signs of recovering: total deposits rose by 2.2%, net of FX effect, during the period January-May 2016 while UAH liquidity remains abundant with an excess of approximately UAH70bn. ...
Research Team
- Research Team
Macro Review-Macro Insight: Larger Financial Aid Buys More Time for Ec...
Ukraine’s economy has been in a sluggish recovery mode since 3Q24, and chances for a significant near-term acceleration are slim. The need to cut the fiscal deficit and budget expenditures will significantly restrain GDP growth going forward. We see economic growth close to 3% this year and next, supported by recovery in household consumption and higher agricultural output. Inflation is set to start decelerating rapidly from June on last year’s high base and larger supply of agricultural har...
Research Team
- Research Team
Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- IMF increases foreign aid assumptions
On Friday, the IMF board approved the 7th review of the EFF program for Ukraine, which opens the way for a $0.4bn loan tranche. The IMF memorandum revealed that Ukraine expects more financial aid than previously planned. The IMF revised some of the key macroeconomic indicators and, most important, assumptions about the size of foreign financial aid that Ukraine is going to receive over the period of the EFF program.
Research Team
- Research Team
Research Team
- Research Team
Weekly Insight -- Monthly inflation slows markedly in February
Consumer inflation slowed to 0.8% MoM in February and marked the third month of steep deceleration from 1.9% MoM in November. Annual headline inflation was up to 13.4% from 12.9% in January while core CPI increased to 12.0% YoY from 11.7% a month before. Food prices accelerated to 15.0% YoY after growth rate remained nearly flat at 14.1-14.4% over the previous three months. Other commodity groups that saw significant price acceleration are alcohol and tobacco (up to 14.9% from 14.2%), transpo...