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More information about ICU you can find at https://www.icu.ua/

Coverage

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Title Date
Weekly Insight -- Weak economic growth in February 2020/03/31
Bond Market Insight -- FX accounts replenished 2020/03/25
Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 3.2% in 2019 2020/03/24
Bond Market Insight -- First auction after crisis begins 2020/03/18
Weekly Insight -- NBU cuts rate amid turbulence 2020/03/16
Weekly Insight -- Bond auctions on hold 2020/03/10
Bond Market Insight -- Budget financing in FX 2020/03/04
Weekly Insight -- Weak start of 1Q20 2020/03/03
Bond Market Insight -- Budget receives new funds 2020/02/26
Weekly Insight -- Retail sales rise 12.1% YoY in January 2020/02/25
Bond Market Insight -- Interest rates correct 2020/02/19
Weekly Insight -- GDP rises 3.2% in 2019 2020/02/17
Bond Market Insight -- FX-denominated bills make a comeback 2020/02/12
Weekly Insight -- Foreign banks to trade UAH 2020/02/10
Bond Market Insight -- Decline in rates halted 2020/02/05
Weekly Insight -- NBU cuts rate by 250 bps to 11% 2020/02/03
Bond Market Insight -- Seven-year notes received strong demand 2020/01/29
Weekly Insight -- Ukraine issues Eurobonds at 4.375% 2020/01/27
Bond Market Insight -- Yield curve flattens at 10% 2020/01/22
Weekly Insight -- Demand for FX prevailing 2020/01/21
Bond Market Insight -- Bonds anticipate NBU key rate decrease 2020/01/15
Weekly Insight -- Inflation slows to 4.1% YoY in 2019 2020/01/14
Weekly Insight -- Ukraine and Russia agree on gas transit 2019/12/24
Macro Review-Heading into 2020 with Confidence 2019/12/20
Weekly Insight -- NBU's mood becoming more positive 2019/12/18
Bond Market Insight -- Hype lower, but so are bond rates 2019/12/18
Bond Market Insight -- Steep peak in yields continues 2019/12/12
Weekly Insight -- Inflation slows to 5.1% YoY in November 2019/12/10
Bond Market Insight -- Hryvnia attractive to investors 2019/12/04
Weekly Insight -- FX-denominated T-bills offered again 2019/12/03
Bond Market Insight -- Demand concentrated in four-year notes 2019/11/27
Weekly Insight -- Mixed start for the economy in 4Q19 2019/11/26
Bond Market Insight -- Investors took a break 2019/11/20
Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 4.2% YoY in 3Q19 2019/11/19
Bond Market Insight -- Decline in rates continues 2019/11/13
Weekly Insight -- Inflation slowed to 6.5% YoY in October 2019/11/12
Bond Market Insight -- Bond rates down 2019/11/06
Weekly Insight -- Four-year T-note offering sees high demand 2019/11/06
Weekly Insight -- NBU cut rate to 15.5% 2019/10/30
Bond Market Insight -- Activity from Foreigners increases 2019/10/23
Weekly Insight -- Bond portfolios steady 2019/10/22
Weekly Insight -- PrivatBank wins in English Court of Appeal 2019/10/16
Bond Market Insight -- Demand shifted to short-term bills 2019/10/16
Bond Market Insight -- Rates continue to decline 2019/10/09
Weekly Insight -- MoF will not offer 5-year notes again this year 2019/10/08
Bond Market Insight -- Level of Borrowing Falls 2019/10/02
Bond Market Insight -- Five-year note set new records 2019/09/25
Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 4.6% YoY in 2Q19 2019/09/24
Bond Market Insight -- Increase in demand pushing rates down 2019/09/18
Weekly Insight -- MoF offered FX-denominated bills again 2019/09/17
Bond Market Insight -- Higher borrowings, lower rates 2019/09/11
Weekly Insight -- Fitch upgrades Ukraine to "B" 2019/09/10
Bond Market Insight -- Rates continue to nosedive 2019/09/05
Weekly Insight -- Ukraine's new government 2019/09/05
Bond Market Insight -- Five-year notes boost borrowing levels 2019/08/28
Weekly Insight -- Short-term financing shrinks 2019/08/27
Bond Market Insight -- Decline in rates halted 2019/08/21
Weekly Insight -- Real GDP surges 4.6% YoY in 2Q19 2019/08/20
Bond Market Insight -- Decline in demand 2019/08/14
Weekly Insight -- Inflation inched up to 9.1% YoY in July 2019/08/13
Bond Market Insight -- Record borrowings; rates nosedive 2019/07/31
Weekly Insight -- Economic growth accelerates in 2Q19 2019/07/30
Bond Market Insight -- UAH bills: rates in free fall 2019/07/25
Weekly Insight -- Landslide victory for presidential party 2019/07/24
Bond Market Insight -- Larger and cheaper borrowings 2019/07/17
Weekly Insight -- Inflation slows to 9% YoY in June 2019/07/15
Bond Market Insight -- Rates continue to decline 2019/07/10
Macro Review-In Transition 2019/07/09
Weekly Insight -- Hryvnia set new appreciation records 2019/07/09
Bond Market Insight -- Hryvnia borrowings increase 2019/07/03
Bond Market Insight -- Demand influences rates 2019/06/26
Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 2.5% YoY in 1Q19 2019/06/25
Bond Market Insight -- More borrowings in FX 2019/06/19
Bond Market Insight -- Debut 6-year UAH borrowings 2019/06/12
Weekly Insight -- Ukraine to tap the EUR debt market 2019/06/11
Bond Market Insight -- Refinancing debt repayments 2019/06/05
Weekly Insight -- IMF is awaiting new government 2019/06/05
Bond Market Insight -- FX bills preferred over local currency 2019/05/29
Weekly Insight -- Ukraine linked to Clearstream 2019/05/28
Bond Market Insight -- Rates continue to fall 2019/05/22
Weekly Insight -- Real GDP growth slowed 2019/05/21
Bond Market Insight -- Expectations for rates stability 2019/05/15
Weekly Insight -- Inflation inched up to 8.8% YoY in April 2019/05/13
Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 2.4% YoY in 1Q19 - NBU 2019/05/08
Bond Market Insight -- Interest rates continue to decline 2019/05/08
Bond Market Insight -- Borrowings increase 2019/04/25
Weekly Insight -- Russia restricts exports to Ukraine 2019/04/24
Bond Market Insight -- Borrowings exceed UAH13bn 2019/04/17
Weekly Insight -- Inflation slowed to 8.6% YoY in March 2019/04/15
Bond Market Insight -- Hryvnia bills favoured 2019/04/10
Weekly Insight -- Foreign investors' portfolios increase 2019/04/09
Bond Market Insight -- Repayments successfully refinanced 2019/04/03
Weekly Insight -- Record-breaking foreign investment 2019/04/01
Bond Market Insight -- Bond maturities lengthen 2019/03/27
Weekly Insight -- Economy rises 3.3% in 2018 2019/03/26
Bond Market Insight -- Borrowings up in all currencies 2019/03/20
Weekly Insight -- NBU leaves the key rate unchanged 2019/03/20
Bond Market Insight -- Demand increases for longer bills 2019/03/13
Weekly Insight -- Inflation slowed in February 2019/03/12
Bond Market Insight -- Refinancing debt repayments 2019/03/06

Analysts

  • Taras Kotovych

    Senior financial analyst (sovereign debt) Years of Experience: 6
  • Mykhailo Demkiv

    Financial analyst (Banking sector) Years of Experience: 4
  • Alexander Martynenko

    Head of corporate research Years of Experience: 7
  • Research Team

    ICU Research Team Years of Experience: 10
  • Dmytro Dyachenko

    Analyst Years of Experience: 1
ICU
Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Weak economic growth in February

Production, transport and retail turnover data might imply some economic growth in February, but the impact of COVID-19 will be felt since March.

ICU
Research Team

Bond Market Insight -- FX accounts replenished

Yesterday, the MoF offered only FX-denominated bills. This week, the Ministry was able to borrow nearly US$0.9bn, which improved the balance in its FX accounts and budget financing. Three-month USD-denominated and 13-month EUR-denominated bills were offered, and provided US$801m and EUR75m of budget proceeds, respectively.

ICU
Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 3.2% in 2019

Following a four-year period of growth, Ukraine's economy will contract this year against the backdrop of spreading COVID-19, and the world economic crisis caused by this virus.

ICU
Research Team

Bond Market Insight -- First auction after crisis begins

The MoF held a primary bond auction for the first time after changes in the government and as the risk of spreading the COVID-19 increases. It borrowed US$71.6m or UAH1.9bn, which was a quite positive result given current conditions.

ICU
Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU cuts rate amid turbulence

Despite adverse markets, the regulator decreased its key rate by 100 bps to 10%, as it originally planned.

ICU
Mykhailo Demkiv

Banking Sector Insight: About to take off

​The Ukrainian banking system is bouncing back from the bottom of the financial crisis which was reached in 1H15. Increased solvency and the abundant level of liquidity at most banks paves the way for a credit revival.  Financial stabilisation is now on firmer ground. The Ukrainian banking system is showing strong signs of recovering: total deposits rose by 2.2%, net of FX effect, during the period January-May 2016 while UAH liquidity remains abundant with an excess of approximately UAH70bn. This has allowed the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to relax FX controls (in June) and lower the key r...

ICU
Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Weak economic growth in February

Production, transport and retail turnover data might imply some economic growth in February, but the impact of COVID-19 will be felt since March.

ICU
Research Team

Bond Market Insight -- FX accounts replenished

Yesterday, the MoF offered only FX-denominated bills. This week, the Ministry was able to borrow nearly US$0.9bn, which improved the balance in its FX accounts and budget financing. Three-month USD-denominated and 13-month EUR-denominated bills were offered, and provided US$801m and EUR75m of budget proceeds, respectively.

ICU
Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 3.2% in 2019

Following a four-year period of growth, Ukraine's economy will contract this year against the backdrop of spreading COVID-19, and the world economic crisis caused by this virus.

ICU
Research Team

Bond Market Insight -- First auction after crisis begins

The MoF held a primary bond auction for the first time after changes in the government and as the risk of spreading the COVID-19 increases. It borrowed US$71.6m or UAH1.9bn, which was a quite positive result given current conditions.

ICU
Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU cuts rate amid turbulence

Despite adverse markets, the regulator decreased its key rate by 100 bps to 10%, as it originally planned.

ICU
Research Team ...
  • Taras Kotovych

Weekly Insight -- Hryvnia set new appreciation records

Last week, the hryvnia appreciated to UAH25.68/US$, a new record for 2019 and 2018. This week, we should continue to see appreciation due to FX inflows from foreign investors in local-currency debt, and a low level of NBU participation in the market.

ICU
Research Team ...
  • Taras Kotovych

Bond Market Insight -- Hryvnia borrowings increase

In July's first auction, demand for local-currency bills exceeded UAH10bn, and the amount of borrowings exceeded UAH8bn. These amounts were greater than at any auction during the previous two months. Yesterday's demand was spread across all instruments, while interest rates in the bids allowed a decrease in the cost of borrowings.

ICU
Research Team ...
  • Taras Kotovych

Bond Market Insight -- Demand influences rates

Yesterday, as expected, demand was concentrated in the six-year notes, allowing the MoF to finance the budget with about UAH7.5bn, including UAH6.7bn from local-currency instruments. Most likely, much of this demand was from foreign investors.

ICU
Research Team ...
  • Taras Kotovych

Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 2.5% YoY in 1Q19

The State Statistics Service of Ukraine revised upward its estimate of real GDP growth to 2.5% YoY, up from its previous estimate of 2.2% YoY growth. In SA QoQ terms, the economy grew 0.3%.

ICU
Research Team ...
  • Taras Kotovych

Bond Market Insight -- More borrowings in FX

Borrowing in the domestic bonds market still relies on demand from foreign investors, which, in turn, depends on which instruments are offered. This week, demand once again favoured FX-denominated bills, which allowed the MoF to refinance part of today's debt repayments.

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