Q2FY19 result highlights
Key positives: Expansion in gross margins in spite of input cost pressures.
Key negatives: Weak volume growth due to Kerala floods impact. Sharp decline in HI sales
Impact on financials: We have reduced our FY19-21E earnings estimate by 1-2% each.
Valuations & view
JYL’s 2QFY19 was marginally below expectations; however, excluding impact of Kerala floods and weak season for HI, the performance has been satisfactory. Going forward, we are factoring volume led 13% revenue CAGR over FY19-21E led by improving demand scenario, innovations and share gains in key power brands. Further price/mix led margin expansion & decline in interest costs led by reduction in debt will drive ahead of peers earnings growth (21% CAGR over FY19-21E). We believe current valuations (28xFY20E earnings) at a 25%+ discount to the average PE multiple of Indian (non-MNC) FMCG players are attractive. Further, from a longer term perspective, we believe JYL’s portfolio has the potential, with the right execution, to drive sustainable volume growth. Maintain Outperformer.
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