Q1FY19 results
Concall highlights: (a) While the management has guided for EBITDA growth and margin expansion for FY19, however it did not comment on time line on achieving double digit margins (b). The company would not respond to price cuts by competitors as it could impact the longer term brand equity of its vehicles. (c) RM costs to continue to harden in 2QFY19. (d) 2W industry likely to grow by 8-10% in FY19. (e) Capex for FY19 is expected to be Rs 7bn. (f) Tax rate is expected to remain at the current 31% as R&D benefits have been reduced and tax holiday for HP plant expired.
Key positives: Lower other expenses
Key negatives: Commodity cost pressures; higher tax rate
Change in estimates: We maintain our estimates
Valuations & view
In the past three years, TVS Motors has gained marketshare by establishing its 2W brands (notably the Apache). However, we continue to remain perplexed with the lack of a margin improvement despite potential operating leverage benefits (inspite of a 36% increase in revenues between FY15-18, the EBITDA margins have remained flat). Given its thin margins and relatively small size TVS could potentially be the most impacted by the heightened competitive intensity in the 2W space. We maintain an Underperformer rating with a target price of Rs 490 (20xFY20E EPS + Rs50 for the BMW joint venture).
TVS Motor Company Limited. TVS Motor Company Limited is engaged in the manufacturing of motorcycles, scooters, mopeds, three wheelers, parts and accessories. The Company's motorcycles include Apache Series RTR, Phoenix 125, Victor, StaR City+, Sport and Max4R. Its scooters include Jupiter, Wego, Scooty Zest 110, Scooty Streak and Scooty Pep +. Its mopeds include XL 100, XL Super and XL Super Heavy Duty. Its three wheelers include TVS King. It has approximately four manufacturing plants, approximately three located in India (Hosur, Tamil Nadu; Mysore, Karnataka, and Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh) and one in Indonesia (Karawang). The Company's TVSM Service(Beta) mobile application features include service schedules, service booking, and news and updates, among others. Its subsidiaries include PT. TVS Motor Company Indonesia, TVS Motor Company (Europe) B.V., TVS Motor (Singapore) Pte. Limited, Sundaram Business Development Consulting (Shanghai) Company Limited and Sundaram Holding USA Inc., among others.
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