Near-term stress in exports | EVs to ramp up to 25k/month TVSL's operating performance was in line with estimates driven by better realizations in 1QFY23. However, higher other income due to sale of investments led to a beat in adj. PAT. Demand recovery in the domestic market is likely to be offset by potential stress in the export market. Further product launches in EV, however, could help in gaining market share in e-2W segment. We raise our FY23E/FY24E EPS by 12%/4% driven by: a) increase...
The general evaluation of TVS MOTOR CO (IN), a company active in the Automobiles industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date April 5, 2022, the closing price was INR 637....
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
TVS MOTOR COMPANY: In-line op. performance; credible cost management (TVSL IN, Mkt Cap USD3.6b, CMP INR562, TP INR625, 11% Upside, Neutral) Management confident of achieving double-digit EBITDA margins TVS Motor Company (TVSL)’s operating performance was in-line, led by good cost management. However, higher interest/depreciation led to below-estimate PAT. As volumes return, profitability is expected to recover to over 10%. We increase our FY22 EPS estimate by ~7.6% to reflect higher rea...
TVS Motor Company: Above-estimate; margins resilient despite volume weakness (TVSL IN, Mkt Cap USD3b, CMP INR455, TP INR460, 1% Upside, Neutral) Cost cutting drives margins; Volume weakness offsets margin upgrade TVSL’s strong operating performance (driven by cost reduction), despite the volume weakness (op. leverage), was commendable and instills confidence of double-digit margins by FY22 as volumes recover. However, our FY20/21E EPS is largely unchanged as the cut in our volume estima...
TVS MOTOR COMPANY: Above estimates; cost-cutting efforts drive sharp margin improvement (TVSL IN, Mkt Cap USD2.9b, CMP INR437, TP INR434, 1% Downside, Neutral) Better product mix, cost cutting drive profitability: Volumes declined ~19% YoY (-4% QoQ) to 885.8k units in 2QFY20. Realizations increased ~7% YoY (+1.4% QoQ) to INR49.1k (our estimate: INR48.6k), driven by an improved mix and price increases. Revenues were down ~13% YoY to INR43.5b. Gross margin improved ~240bp YoY (+170bp QoQ) to 2...
Q1FY20 results Operating performance ahead: TVS Motor Q1FY20 PAT at Rs1.42bn (-3% yoy) was ~6% above our estimates. The variance was due to a better than expected operating performance with gross margins improving. Margins surprise a bit: Revenues at Rs44.6bn grew +7% yoy despite weak volumes (+2% yoy) as realizations rose ~8% yoy on regulatory cost push (ABS). EBITDA margins at 8% (up 30bps yoy) beat our estimates (est: 7.3%). The EBITDA margins were supported by an improvement in gross mar...
TVS MOTOR COMPANY: In-line; guides for decline in FY20 industry volumes; EV launch in FY20 (TVSL IN, Mkt Cap USD2.6b, CMP INR380, TP INR425, 12% Upside, Neutral) Margins beat offset by higher depreciation: Volume declined 0.5% YoY (+1.7% QoQ) in 1QFY20. Realizations grew ~8% YoY (flat QoQ) to INR48.4k (in-line), driven by mix and price increases. Revenue increased ~7% YoY to INR44.7b (in-line). Gross margin improved 80bp YoY (+150bp QoQ) to 24.9%, driven by lower commodity cost and cost-c...
Q4FY19 results Weak operating performance: TVS Motor Q4FY19 PAT at Rs1.34bn (-19% yoy) was broadly inline with estimates. A weaker than expected operating performance was offset by a lower tax rate. Margins remain tepid: Revenues at Rs43.8bn grew +9% yoy despite weak volumes (+2% yoy) as realizations rose ~3% qoq largely on account safety norm linked price hikes. EBITDA margins at 7% (down 40bps yoy after taking into account the policy change) was below estimates (est: 7.5%). The EBITDA mar...
TVS Motor Company: EBITDA in line, guides for marginal 2W industry growth in FY20 (TVSL IN, Mkt Cap USD3.4b, CMP INR491, TP INR480, 2% Downside, Neutral) Realizations at record level: Volumes grew 2% YoY (-8% QoQ), while realizations increased 7.2% YoY (+2.5% QoQ) to INR48.3k (our estimate: INR46.5k). Revenue grew 9% YoY to INR43.8b (our estimate: INR42.2b). Lower scooter contribution hit the gross margin, while negative operating leverage led to EBITDA margin erosion of 110bp QoQ (-40bp YoY...
Q3FY19 results PAT ahead of expectations: TVS Motor Q2FY19 PAT at Rs1.7bn (+16% yoy) was ~8% ahead of consensus estimates. The variance was largely on higher realisations and consequent operating leverage benefits. Revenues surprise positively: Revenues at Rs46.6bn (+24% yoy) was driven by volume growth(+20% yoy) and realizations were up ~3% qoq on account of favourable currency movements (USD INR realisations at Rs71.5), price hikes (average increase of 0.6% in Q3) and a better product mix....
TVS MOTOR COMPANY: Mix, Fx led beat on margins; management expects recovery from 4Q (TVSL IN, Mkt Cap USD3.7b, CMP INR554, TP INR576, 4% Upside, Neutral) Realizations at record level: TVSL reported healthy 3QFY19 results with realizations growing 5.3% YoY (+2.7% QoQ) to INR47.1k (v/s est. INR46k) driven by improvement in mix, price increase (0.6%) and favorable forex. Volumes grew 20% YoY (-9% QoQ) to 989.7k units. Consequently, revenues grew 26% YoY to INR46.6b (in line), while gross mar...
Q1FY19 results PAT below est; Operating performance weak on higher costs: TVS Motor Q1FY19 PAT at Rs1.46bn (+13% yoy on a reported numbers; flat on an adjusted basis) was 12% below estimates. The variance was on lower other income, a higher tax rate and lower EBITDA margins. Revenues in line; EBITDA margins disappoint: Revenues at Rs42.4bn grew by ~24% yoy led by a 16% yoy volume growth. EBITDA margins adjusted for an accounting policy change was at 7.2% (est 7.5%; up 20bp qoq). Raw material...
Q4FY18 results PAT below est; Operating performance weak on higher costs: TVS Motor Q4FY18 adj PAT at Rs1.6bn (flat yoy) was sharply below estimates. The variance was on weaker than expected margin, lower other income (-62% yoy) and a higher depreciation. Revenues in line ; Adj EBITDA margins disappoint: Revenues at Rs39.9bn grew by ~40% yoy (+8% qoq) led by a 32% yoy volume growth and supported by 1% qoq(+7% yoy) realization growth. EBITDA margins at 7% (est 9.2%) declined 80 bps qoq (-50bp...
TVS Motor Company: Below estimate; Margins disappoint again; cutting estimates by 11-12% (tVsl IN, Mkt Cap USD4.3b, CMP INR610, TP INR635, 4% Upside, Neutral) RM inflation and higher import duty impact gross margin: Volumes grew 32% YoY (+7.6% QoQ) to 889.1k units. Realizations rose 0.7% QoQ (+6.3% YoY) to INR44.9k (in-line) due to a favourable mix. Gross margin of 26.2% (est. of 27.1%) contracted by ~110bp QoQ (+130bp YoY), primarily due to ~120bp impact of RM inflation. EBITDA margin of...
Q3FY18 results PAT marginally below est; Operating performance broadly in-line: TVS Motor Q3FY18 PAT at Rs1.5bn (+16% yoy) was below estimates (consensus: Rs1.7bn) on account of lower other income/higher tax rate. Operating performance though was on expected lines with EBITDA at Rs 2.8bn (+31% yoy) Revenues surprise on higher realizations: Revenues at Rs36.8bn grew by ~24% yoy (-9% qoq) led by a 16% yoy volume growth with realizations growing by 4% qoq on the back of higher share of exports ...
TVS Motor Company: In-line results; lower other income restricts PAT growth (TVSL IN, Mkt Cap USD5.3b, CMP INR713, TP INR741, 4% Upside, Neutral) Favourable mix, price hikes aid realizations: Volumes grew 15% YoY (-12.9% QoQ) to 826.3k units. Realizations rose 4.4% QoQ (+7.4% YoY) to INR44.6k due to a favourable mix and price hikes. Net sales grew 23.5% YoY (-9.1% QoQ) to INR36.9b (in-line). EBITDA margin shrunk ~90bp QoQ (+50bp YoY) to 7.8% (our estimate: 7.6%), mainly due to higher marketi...
​TVS MOTOR COMPANY: Apache RR310: First BMW partnership product launched; Launch price of INR205k at over 40% premium to Bajaj Dominar/RE Classic(TVSL IN, Mkt Cap USD5.4b, CMP INR734, TP INR764, 4% Upside, Neutral)TVS Motor (TVSL), on 6th December 2017, launched Apache RR 310, the first product from its partnership with BMW. This marks its foray in the super-premium category, both in the domestic and international markets.The motorcycle is priced at ~INR205k (ex-showroom), implying a premium o...
​TVS Motor: In-line results; decadal-high EBITDA margins; Valuations rich(TVSL IN, Mkt Cap USD5.2b, CMP INR709, TP INR764, 8% Upside, Downgrade to Neutral) In-line EBITDA margins, as benefit of lower RM cost of offset by higher other expenses: Volumes grew 16.3% YoY (+18.3% QoQ) to 849.4k units. Realizations increased 1.7% YoY (+0.8% QoQ to INR42.7k). Net sales grew 18.3% YoY (+19.2% QoQ) to INR40.5b (in-line). Gross margins was better than estimated at 36.6% (+120bp QoQ), due to cost cutting ...
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