U.S. recession expectations: where do we stand?
At the beginning of the year there was a heated debate among economists and financial analysts on whether the long U.S. economic expansion would finally come to an end this year. A number of predictive models were showing that the probability of recession was rising to levels associated with a significant deceleration of economic activity in the past.
As the COVID-19 virus is a tremendous exogenous shock with potentially long-lasting repercussions, it is rather safe to assume that the severe downturn is already here.
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