Iniohos Advisory Services

​Iniohos Advisory Services is an independent investment research and consulting house, founded by investment professionals with long and in-depth experience in global financial markets.

Iniohos Advisory Services aims to provide top-end investment solutions to High Net Worth Individuals and institutional investors, ranging from proactive investment research to tailor made financial and risk modelling.

Our research covers the areas of investment and macroeconomic research, investment strategy and asset allocation, financial modelling and risk management.

Coverage

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Title Date
Is the U.S. market’s steady outperformance about to turn? 2019/11/25
U.S. equities should bottom 2-quarters before real GDP growth! 2019/11/05
U.S. Recession Watch: The odds remain at elevated levels according to the yield curve slope 2019/10/08
U.S. equity strategy performance during monetary easing! 2019/08/18
Volatility remains surprisingly contained given the prevailing risks! 2019/08/12
U.S. Style Performance Update 2019/05/30
Model-based U.S. equity valuation close to ‘fair value’ 2019/05/23
Is there a regime shift in global monetary policy? It seems so… 2019/05/16
U.S. sector positioning indicates positive expectations on the macroeconomic front! 2019/05/05
Investors should consider taking profits in equities! 2019/04/23
One of the longest economic cycles in history or just a series of ‘mini cycles’? Is the notion of the ‘traditional’ business cycle irrelevant? 2019/04/18
The German yield curve indicates that a recession is not around the corner 2019/04/06
At last, the U.S. yield curve has inverted… 2019/04/02
Exploring the relation between financial conditions and core CPI 2019/03/26
U.S. recession is looming in 2020, as data signal higher odds of occurrence 2019/03/19
Recession odds have markedly moved up towards worrisome levels 2019/03/05
Forecasting equity returns: Slim gains ahead! 2019/03/04
QE is here to stay... 2019/02/21
Mind mean aversion, as U.S. equity prices and valuations are drifting away from their long-term averages 2019/02/10
Who says that QT will have a larger impact on financial markets than QE? 2019/01/31
How much tighter has global monetary policy become? Not much actually... 2019/01/23
To what extent will QT impact markets relative to QE? 2018/12/27
Don’t bet that the Federal Reserve will stop hiking next year! 2018/12/03
The probabilities of a U.S. bear market and recession are rising, but have not yet reached critical levels! 2018/11/18
Forecasting the next U.S. recession 2018/11/01
What is driving the equity market sell-off? 2018/10/26
Where to for equity markets? Some thoughts... 2018/09/26
Signals from the U.S. equity market 2018/08/24
Should the Fed prevent the yield curve from inverting? 2018/08/06
U.S. Sector Performance & Factor Exposures 2018/07/22
U.S. Industry Portfolio Performance (Equal weighted) 2018/07/18
U.S. Industry Portfolio Performance 2018/07/18
Industry returns, bubbles, and market crashes 2018/07/16
When will the Fed stop tightening? 2018/06/12
Greek GDP growth is set to accelerate, but only 'moderately'... 2018/06/12
Diverging risk gauges…Is equity volatility too bearish after all? 2018/05/11
Is value set to outperform growth anytime soon? Don’t bet on it… 2018/04/16
The U.S. yield curve does not signal a recession anytime soon 2018/03/27
Being contrarian; the Norges Bank lowers its inflation target 2018/03/15
The era of extreme and abnormal market tranquility seems to have come to an end 2018/02/05
These are definitely challenging times for asset allocators 2017/12/29
These are definitely challenging times for asset allocators 2017/12/29
These are definitely challenging times for asset allocators 2017/12/27
These are definitely challenging times for asset allocators 2017/12/27
These are definitely challenging times for asset allocators 2017/12/27
These are definitely challenging times for asset allocators 2017/12/27
Demanding valuations in U.S. and European fixed income reveal 'equity like' segments of the bond market are in a state of bliss 2017/11/10
How reliable is the Taylor rule as a policy setting tool? 2017/10/28
‘Early warning’ indicators are close to flashing red for U.S. equities 2017/10/18
Factor Investing - Estimating Factor Exposures (Part II) 2017/09/26
Factor Investing - Estimating Factor Exposures (Part I) 2017/09/24
Global Style Panorama 2017/09/18
Has the U.S. Dollar descent come to an end? 2017/09/08
Asset allocators are in trouble... 2017/08/18
The dispersion in the U.S. equity market is persisting… 2017/08/07
Yet another valuation indicator is emitting warning signals for U.S. equities 2017/06/30
The Fed converts unconventional QE programmes to conventional monetary policy tools 2017/06/16
P/E to implied volatility ratio signals that investment mood is becoming too euphoric 2017/05/30
Watch out for the ‘volatility trap’!!! 2017/05/20
Confidence in the ‘reflation’ trade is fading 2017/05/10
The use of QE as a monetary policy tool was not a one-off 2017/05/03
Financial conditions are crucial for projected economic activity and monetary policy 2017/04/20
How likely is a U.S. equity market correction? 2017/03/29
The recovery of the Greek economy, once again, at the mercy of political and economic uncertainty 2017/03/26
New highs for U.S. equity markets - But are valuations expensive? 2017/03/17
The ECB will not be hasty to taper... 2017/02/17
The Volatility Paradox 2017/01/03
Global aggregate demand is also critical for the projected path of crude oil prices 2016/12/28
The small cap rally in pictures... 2016/12/18
It’s all about dispersion in the U.S. equity market! 2016/12/10
Will the end of QE amplify the probability of volatility episodes? 2016/10/21
After all, how innovative are unconventional monetary policy tools? 2016/10/13
The Bank of Japan is trying to dazzle markets with forward guidance 2016/10/05
How easy U.S. interest rate policy really is? 2016/09/30
The yield curve still remains a reliable predictive tool 2016/09/19
Mind the gap...U.S. wage inflation measures are diverging. 2016/08/17
Lessons from Japan... 2016/08/08
Challenging times for the Federal Reserve 2016/07/31
Cross asset volatility episodes are bound to continue... 2016/07/20
The Sterling in the post “Brexit” era 2016/07/13
Are you an equity investor? The Fed is your friend... 2016/04/09
U.S. corporate profits, the labour market, and the risk of an economic downturn 2016/03/29
Has recent central bank action compressed or amplified the probability of a Minsky moment? 2016/03/23
Rate cuts are still on the ECB’s agenda 2016/03/21
U.S. equity valuation does not project significant downside 2016/03/18
The Fed should still provide some breathing space… 2016/03/15
The ECB has kept all options open... 2016/03/14
Mind the gap... Shipping freight rates point to further deceleration in the global economy that is not priced in riskier assets 2016/03/11
The ECB should focus on the long term effectiveness of its monetary policy stance 2016/03/09
After all, U.S. recession might not be at the end of tunnel... 2016/03/07
High dividend stocks are back in vogue... 2016/03/04
Crude oil market still under pressure... 2016/02/29
Why are crude oil and equity markets correlated? It’s the global economy stupid... 2016/02/26
Negative rates might not be able to fall as much as central bankers want to signal! 2016/02/23
U.S. equity volatility is pricing in further financial distress and possibly a recession... 2016/02/15
Welcome to the negative rates club... 2016/02/12
Is the U.S. economy heading towards a recession? 2016/02/09

Analysts

  • John Galakis

    Senior Investment Strategist Years of Experience: 17
  • Nicolas Skourias

    Senior Economist Years of Experience: 25
John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Is the U.S. market’s steady outperformance about to turn?

Regional or country allocations are one of the primary decisions that asset allocators need to actively take. Especially within the developed market universe it is certainly not a straightforward one, due to the leading position of the U.S. equity market and its significance for other equity markets.A most striking observation, however, is the relative outperformance of the U.S. equity market during the last decade.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

U.S. equities should bottom 2-quarters before real GDP growth!

The report analyses the relation between the equity market and real economic activity in the U.S.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

U.S. Recession Watch: The odds remain at elevated levels according to the yield curve slope

U.S. Recession Watch

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

U.S. equity strategy performance during monetary easing!

The report explores equity market and style performance around the initial phase of monetary easing in the U.S.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Volatility remains surprisingly contained given the prevailing risks!

One of the primary questions that investors should be asking at all times is whether risks are realistically and adequately priced in financial markets. It is true that the pricing of risk is definitely not a straightforward exercise and thus there are numerous instances that investors have been consistently mispricing risks. Typically, periods of prolonged mispricing have been followed by a re-evaluation of expectations and a rise in asset market volatility. Investors have exhibited less risk aversion relative to initial expectations year to date, even though the macroeconomic environment ha...

Has the U.S. Dollar descent come to an end?

The report analyses the reasons behind the U.S. Dollar's depreciation with an emphasis on the EUR/USD rate.  In addition, the report explains why the probability of continued euro upside has markedly decreased, as well as why new U.S. Dollar highs are unlikely.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Is there a regime shift in global monetary policy? It seems so…

2018 was undoubtedly the most intense period of monetary policy tightening post the Global Financial Crisis, as the number of rate hikes exceeded that of rate cuts. Year to date, last year’s aggressive tightening trend has come to an end, as the pace of monetary tightening has decelerated considerably. Numerous economists and market analysts have been taking the view that the global monetary policy stance will shift back to easing relatively soon.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

U.S. sector positioning indicates positive expectations on the macroeconomic front!

Sector positioning portrays easing investor fears regarding a deceleration in the U.S. economy and an upcoming market sell-off.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

QE is here to stay...

The report analyses the reasons behind the more frequent use of unconventional monetary policy tools in the future.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

How much tighter has global monetary policy become? Not much actually...

The report explores the magnitude of global monetary tightening over the course of last year.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Forecasting the next U.S. recession

Investors fear a sustainable shift in the low interest rate environment that provided valuable support to riskier asset valuations (equities, corporate and high yield bonds). Closely linked and equally critical is the recent rise in expectations for further tightening by the Federal Reserve throughout next year. Expectations of more rate hikes have risen sharply throughout 2019 and even rolled over into 2020. This coupled with recent empirical research that professional forecasters tend to underestimate the rise in short rates, i.e. have difficulties in forming predictions regarding monetary p...

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Is the U.S. market’s steady outperformance about to turn?

Regional or country allocations are one of the primary decisions that asset allocators need to actively take. Especially within the developed market universe it is certainly not a straightforward one, due to the leading position of the U.S. equity market and its significance for other equity markets.A most striking observation, however, is the relative outperformance of the U.S. equity market during the last decade.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Volatility remains surprisingly contained given the prevailing risks!

One of the primary questions that investors should be asking at all times is whether risks are realistically and adequately priced in financial markets. It is true that the pricing of risk is definitely not a straightforward exercise and thus there are numerous instances that investors have been consistently mispricing risks. Typically, periods of prolonged mispricing have been followed by a re-evaluation of expectations and a rise in asset market volatility. Investors have exhibited less risk aversion relative to initial expectations year to date, even though the macroeconomic environment ha...

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

U.S. Style Performance Update

The report provides an overview of U.S. style performance.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Investors should consider taking profits in equities!

The report comments on how investors should  position tactically, given the recent equity rally.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Mind mean aversion, as U.S. equity prices and valuations are drifting away from their long-term averages

Abundant liquidity, low interest rates, and more recently ample earnings growth has made possible the sustainability of relatively high valuations! The report explores where have recent developments left U.S equity market valuations, and, more importantly, to what extent are they sustainable?

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

U.S. equities should bottom 2-quarters before real GDP growth!

The report analyses the relation between the equity market and real economic activity in the U.S.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

U.S. Recession Watch: The odds remain at elevated levels according to the yield curve slope

U.S. Recession Watch

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

U.S. equity strategy performance during monetary easing!

The report explores equity market and style performance around the initial phase of monetary easing in the U.S.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Model-based U.S. equity valuation close to ‘fair value’

It seems that equity markets have priced-in a rather optimistic scenario both with respect to the projected macroeconomic and earnings backdrop. In order to get a feeling of the impact of current market expectations on equity market valuation, an econometric framework is employed to proxy and determine the ‘fair value’ of the market.

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

One of the longest economic cycles in history or just a series of ‘mini cycles’? Is the notion of the ‘traditional’ business cycle irrelevant?

While numerous economists and strategists have been trying to forecast the end of one of the longest economic expansions on record, a, more or less, radical theory has emerged recently. J.P. Morgan chief U.S. equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas claims that thinking in terms of ‘traditional’ business cycles might not be relevant anymore. At the crux of his theory is that the ongoing cycle is not a typical one, as it is continuously influenced by central bank actions, thus one should not consider the ongoing expansion as a single event, but rather as a series of mini cycles.The ‘mini cycle’ t...

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Who says that QT will have a larger impact on financial markets than QE?

The recent rise in equity volatility has been largely attributed to the Federal Reserve’s policy normalization and the unwinding of the unconventional monetary policy tools that it deployed since the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in specific. The pace of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction or quantitative tightening is a closely watched metric, as investors fear that it will have a significant impact on market liquidity. Recent comments by Federal Reserve officials regarding the mechanics of quantitative tightening seem to have had a material, but short-lived, impact...

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

To what extent will QT impact markets relative to QE?

Analysts are increasingly attributing rising equity market volatility and tightening financial conditions on the Federal Reserve’s policy normalization. It is more than rational to expect that the reversal of the ultra accommodative monetary policies adopted ten years ago will ultimately have an impact on markets and the economy. But it is rather premature to assert that the impact is going to be equivalent to that of quantitative easing programmes, as the macroeconomic and financial market backdrop during the Global Financial Crisis was very different compared to the prevailing one, and as th...

John Galakis ...
  • Nicolas Skourias

Don’t bet that the Federal Reserve will stop hiking next year!

The report provides insights on the projected path of U.S. monetary policy, as well as explanations regarding the sluggishness of inflation.

Asset allocators are in trouble...

The report presents evidence of the challenging times that asset allocators are currently facing to invest especially in mainstream asset classes (bonds, equities), due to their elevated valuation levels, and provides portfolio strategy, construction, and risk management recommendations.  

The dispersion in the U.S. equity market is persisting…

 The U.S. Presidential Election had been a primary catalyst for higher dispersion in the U.S. equity market. There was a widespread belief among investors that the newly elected administration would promote a set of economic policies that would ‘reflate’ the U.S. economy sooner than previously anticipated, as well as bring about regulatory changes that would benefit specific sectors of the economy. On the macroeconomic front, a swifter reflation of the economy would have had direct implications for the projected path of economic growth, as well as the projected monetary policy stance. Higher g...

Yet another valuation indicator is emitting warning signals for U.S. equities

The market cap to GDP ratio is yet another valuation metric that is currently signaling that the U.S. equity market has reached overvalued territory.The report presents a number of variants of the specific valuation metric, as well as its relation to forward returns.

Watch out for the ‘volatility trap’!!!

​Volatility remains low by historical standards, even though economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk are at elevated levels. It seems that everyone recognizes their presence and, in some cases, persistence, so far however, it is not reflected in underlying portfolio allocations and, ultimately, in specific asset class performance. Equity volatility, for instance, portrays a very optimistic scenario for the global economy, and is counting on quick resolutions regarding possible political and geopolitical events. Financial markets continue to transmit a counterintuitive message; more s...

Confidence in the ‘reflation’ trade is fading

The U.S. Presidential Election has certainly been a catalyst for financial equity market performance. The primary reason being, that the market expected that the new administration will promote a set of economic policies that will ‘reflate’ the U.S. economy sooner than anticipated, and will bring about regulatory changes that will benefit specific sectors. On the macroeconomic front, a swifter ‘reflation’ of the economy, theoretically, could have direct implications for the projected monetary policy stance, and, if true, would most likely lead to a new monetary regime. It is not coincidental, ...

Global Style Panorama

A collection of graphs related to developed market equity style performance.

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