Une stratégie claire mais une croissance lointaine - VENTE vs NEUTRE - OC 97€ (vs 95€)
Le millésime 2014 a vu trois éléments majeurs : (i) la recomposition du capital, (ii) la cession du centre commercial Beaugrenelle, et (iii) des annonces positives sur le passif. Toutefois, les résultats n’ont été qu’en légère croissance compte tenu de la concurrence ayant conduit à l’abaissement significatif des objectifs d’investissements. En 2015, Gecina table au minimum sur une stabilité de son résultat net récurrent, ambitionnant 800m€ de cessions mais ne se fixant pas d’objectif d’acquisitions (ce qui pourrait permettre un relèvement de la guidance), l’impact de l’abaissement du coût de la dette permettant cette stabilité. L’apparition d’un pipeline de projets identifiés est positive, mais n’alimentera la croissance qu’à moyen terme. La valorisation actuelle nous semble déjà excessive : prime sur ANR de 16,1% vs 9,7% pour ses pairs, un multiple de résultat 2015e selon la guidance de 22,7x vs 17,9x pour les pairs et rendement du dividende < 4%. Nous abaissons notre recommandation à VENDRE vs NEUTRE malgré le relèvement de notre objectif de cours à 97€.Gecina is a rental real estate company. Co.'s purpose is to operate individual rental properties or group of properties located mainly in France. Co.'s properties include commercial assets (offices and retail outlets), residential assets, logistics assets, hotels and healthcare facilities. Co. is organized around two main sectors and one ancillary segment: Economic sector comprising the commercial segment (offices and retail outlets), the portfolio of logistics properties and of hotel buildings; Demographic sector comprising traditional residential units (housing units property holding), portfolio of students residences and of healthcare facilities; Ancilary segment of real estate services.
Since 2006, Invest Securities has become one of the leading players in investment services for funds and managers, to whom we offer a global and personalised service. Our track record differentiates us and proves our leadership in numerous promising sectors like property and growth companies.
Consisting of 13 different profiles (pharmacist, engineer, financier, etc), the DNA of our financial analysis office is value added and sector expertise. Through daily monitoring and detailed analyses of companies and sectors, we seek to provide a differentiating vision of our 120 stocks followed. Our ideas are circulated every day to nearly 1,000 professionals.
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