Will the dollar downturn last? What should we do?
In the short term, we believe, as we previously said[1], that the euro-dollar has increased too fast. In the US, expectations for the Fed’s action seem excessively complacent and the Fed is unlikely not to react to easing of financial conditions, at a time when the US economy is ultimately healthy and excess capacity is shrinking. In the eurozone, the tightening of financial conditions since May can only lead the ECB to ease some of the pressure on the euro, at least verbally, since its inflation target will be difficult to reach in 2019 if the currency continues to appreciate...
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