Aussie Equities Month in Review (Dec 2019)
- Global equities rallied by 3.0% after the US and China announced they were close to formalising a trade deal. Emerging markets rallied strongly, with the global EM index up by 7.5% supported by strong gains in Argentina (21%), China B (8.4%), Russia (7.7%), Brazil (6.8%) and China A (6.2%).
- Consumer Staples (-8.1%), Communication Services (-7.8%), Property (-4.8%) led the declines, while Materials (1.5%) and Utilities (0.8%) were the only sectors to gain ground.
- The biggest hurdle for investors in Australia is valuation. The market remains and now trades 24% expensive on a 12-month forward PE basis.
- The combination of falling downgrades and upgrades more in line with long-term averages means that earnings certainty is back to around normal levels for the ASX200 universe.
- GDP increased by only 0.4% in Q3 taking the 4 quarter-ended growth rate to 1.7%. However, housing finance posted another solid gain as the RBA's easing campaign gains traction.
- OML has seen improved demand for advertising in Q4 causing it to raise guidance.
Boral manufactures and supplies building and construction materials in Australia, the U.S. and Asia. Co.'s segments are: Construction Materials & Cement, consisting of quarries, concrete, asphalt, transport, landfill, property, cement and concrete placing; Building Products, consisting of Australian bricks, roofing and masonry, and timber products; Boral Gypsum Joint Venture, which manufactures and sells plasterboard and associated products; and Boral USA, consisting of bricks, cultured stone, roof tiles, fly ash, concrete and quarries. The primary end use markets for Co.'s products include residential and non-residential construction and the engineering and infrastructure markets.
Charter Hall Group is engaged in the investment in property funds, and property funds management. Co. has the following two reportable segments: Property Investments, which comprises investments in property funds; as well as Property Direct Investments, which comprises direct interests in investment properties; and Property Funds Management, which comprises funds management services, property management services and other property services.
Crown Resorts is an entertainment and gaming group. Co. owns and operates two resorts, Crown Melbourne, which features the Crown Towers Melbourne hotel, Crown Metropol Melbourne hotel, and the Crown Promenade Melbourne hotel; and Crown Perth, which features the Crown Metropol Perth hotel and the Crown Promenade Perth hotel. In the U.K., Co. owns and operates Crown Aspinall in London, a casino in the West End entertainment district. Co. also holds equity interest in Melco Crown Entertainment, a developer, owner and operator of resorts in Macau and the Philippines. The resorts include: City of Dreams Macau, Macau Studio City, and City of Dreams Manila.
Incitec Pivot is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of industrial explosives, industrial chemicals and fertilisers, and the provision of related service. Co.'s Asia Pacific business consists of the: Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific, which manufactures and sells industrial explosives and related products and services; Southern Cross International, which manufactures ammonium phosphates and is a distributor of its manufactured fertilizer product; and Incitec Pivot Fertilisers, which manufactures and distributes fertilizers in Eastern Australia. Co.'s Americas business comprises the Dyno Nobel Americas, which manufactures and sells industrial explosives and related products and services.
JB Hi Fi is engaged in the retailing of home consumer products. Co. provides a range of brands with particular focus on consumer electronics, software including music, games and movies, whitegoods and appliances.
TP Group is a specialist services and engineering company that provides solutions and through-life support for critical applications in defence, industrial and government sectors. Co. consists of four interlinked business units: TPG Maritime, which include the provision of air purification equipment for submarines; TPG Engineering, which activities include the manufacture of heat exchange equipment used in the heating and cooling of large scale industrial processes and power generation; TPG Design and Technology, which specialises in the design and development of high-speed turbomachinery; and TPG Managed Solutions, which provides systems engineering services to primary organisations.
Woolworths Group is organized into five segments: Australian Food and Petrol, which involves the procurement of food and petroleum products for resale to customers in Australia; New Zealand Supermarkets, which involves the procurement of food and liquor and products for resale to customers in New Zealand; Endeavour Drinks Group, which involves the procurement of liquor products for resale to customers in Australia; BIG W, which involves the procurement of discount general merchandise products for resale to customers in Australia; as well as Hotels, which involves the provision of leisure and hospitality services, accommodation, entertainment and gaming in Australia.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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