Report
EUR 118.00 For Business Accounts Only

2020 Asset Allocation and ASX Outlook

  • We expect the Australian equity market to deliver low-mid single digit returns next year.
  • Our Dynamic Asset Allocation preference is a mild overweight to Growth assets, given the relative attractiveness of equities to both bonds and credit.
  • In Fixed Income we prefer Global markets over Australia even though the RBA has probably more work to do.
  • In the ASX, the Risk: Reward skew is tilted more positive for Resources than Banks, particularly in H1 as the global economy shows signs of recovery.
  • Maintaining and slowly building a defensive portfolio will be important for performance next year.
  • Falling bond yields and term-premia in a reasonable risk-on environment are good for Growth, but be style-agnostic in 2020.
Underlyings
ANZ BANKING GRP Pfd.

CIMIC Group Limited

CIMIC Group is a construction company and the contract miner. Co. provides construction, mining, engineering, public-private partnerships (PPP), and operation and maintenance services to the infrastructure, resources and property markets. Co. comprises the following main segments: construction, contract mining, PPP, engineering, Habtoor Leighton Group, and commercial and residential. Co. delivers its services through several companies: CPB Contractors Pty Ltd, Leighton Asia Limited, Thiess Pty Ltd, Pacific Partnerships, and EIC Activities Pty Ltd. Co. operates across the Australia Pacific, Asia, Middle East and Americas regions in the infrastructure, resources and property markets.

Cochlear Limited

Cochlear is a for-profit entity and operates in the implantable hearing device industry. Co.'s implant systems comprise an implant which is inserted during surgery and an external sound processor. As of June 30 2016, Co. sold in over 100 countries and had a direct presence in approximately 20 countries and used distributors and agents in other areas. Manufacturing for the cochlear implant product range is based in Australia. The bone conduction implant product range is manufactured in Sweden. Co.'s supply chain operates with product being distributed from its manufacturing sites in Australia and Sweden to its regional distribution centres in the U.S., the U.K. and Panama.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides integrated financial services including retail, business and institutional banking, funds management, superannuation, life insurance, general insurance, broking services and finance company activities. Co. operates in seven segments, Retail banking Services, Business and Private Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, Wealth Management, New Zealand, Bankwest, as well as International Financial Services and Other Divisions. As of June 30 2016, Co. had total assets of A$933.1 million and total deposits of A$588.0 million.

CSL Limited

CSL is engaged in the research, development, manufacture, marketing and distribution of biopharmaceutical and allied products. Co.'s operations are divided into three segments: CSL Behring, Seqirus, and CSL Intellectual Property. CSL Behring is engaged in manufacturing, marketing and developing plasma therapies (plasma products and recombinants). Seqirus is engaged in manufacturing and distributing non-plasma biotherapeutic products. CSL Intellectual Property is engaged in the licensing of intellectual property of Co. to unrelated third parties. Co. operates primarily in five specific geographic areas, namely Australia, the U.S., Germany, Switzerland, and the U.K.

CSR
CSR

CSR is engaged in the manufacture and supply of building products in Australia and New Zealand. Co. operates in four segments, Building Products, Glass, Aluminium and Property. The Building Products segment consists of Lightweight Systems, Insulation, AFS walling systems, Bricks, and Roofing. The Glass segment includes the operations of Viridian, an architectural glass provider and manufacturer of float glass and hardcoated performance products. Products from the aluminium business include aluminium ingot, billet and slab.. The Property segment sells former operating sites.

Regis Resources Limited

Regis Resources is a gold producer. Co. and its controlled entities are engaged in the production of gold from the Duketon Gold Project; exploration, evaluation and development of gold projects in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia; and exploration and evaluation of the McPhillamys Gold Project in New South Wales. Co. has two reportable segments which comprise the Duketon Gold Project; being Duketon North Operations, comprising the Moolart Well Gold Mine, and Duketon South Operations, incorporating the Garden Well Gold Mine and the Rosemont Gold Mine.

Resmed CDI

Rio Tinto PLC CEDEAR

Seven Group Holdings Limited

Seven Group Holdings has six segments: WesTrac Australia, which provides heavy equipment sales and support to customers in Australia; WesTrac China, also providing heavy equipment sales and support in Hebei, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and the municipalities of Beijing and Tianjin; AllightSykes, engaged in the manufacture, assembly, sales and support of lighting, FG Wilson power generation and dewatering equipment as well as distribution of Perkins engines; Coates Hire, which is an equipment hire company; Media Investments, which relates to investments in listed and unlisted media organizations; Energy; and Other investments.

Transurban Group Ltd.

Transurban Group is engaged in the development, financing, operation and maintenance of toll road networks as well as management of the associated customer and client relationships. Co. manages and develops urban toll road networks in Australia and the U.S. Co. owns concession assets across four key market segments: Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and the Greater Washington Area.

Westpac Banking Corporation

Westpac Banking is a banking organization with branches, affiliates and controlled entities throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia and in the Pacific region. Co. provides a range of banking and financial services in these markets, including consumer, business and institutional banking and wealth management services. Co. is engaged in the provision of financial services including lending, deposit taking, payments services, investment portfolio management and advice, superannuation and funds management, insurance services, leasing finance, general finance, interest rate risk management and foreign exchange services. As of Sep 30 2017, Co. had total assets of A$851,875,000,000.

Provider
Macro Strategy Advisors Pty Ltd
Macro Strategy Advisors Pty Ltd

About  us:

  • The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
  • Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist.  He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA. 

Aim of our business:

  • To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.

Services:

  • A fortnightly research note.
  • Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
  • We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
  • As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.

Our Edge:

  • Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
  • We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
  • Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
  • Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.

 

Analysts
Shane Lee

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